2024 NBA playoff predictions: Celtics-Nuggets for the title, early West upsets and more

We, as a species, have hassle imagining one thing till it really occurs. The NBA playoffs are an ideal vessel from which to view this explicit shortcoming.

The Boston Celtics simply accomplished a daily season by which they gained 64 video games, successful their convention by a staggering 14 video games and posting the fifth-best scoring margin of all time at plus-11.3 factors per sport. They gained or break up the season sequence with 28 of their 29 opponents (good job, Denver), had no shedding streak longer than two video games and now take no vital accidents into the postseason.

And but, it appears onerous to seek out individuals who would describe Boston as an amazing favourite, as a result of they haven’t seen this group of Celtics win all of it however have seen them fall quick a number of occasions.

We’ve seen this film earlier than, after all. No one will admit it in the present day, however lots of people had a tough time imagining the Denver Nuggets successful the Western Convention, not to mention the NBA Finals, final spring … though they have been the highest seed within the convention, had a two-time MVP as their centerpiece and their beginning 5 was dominant anytime it performed collectively. Some people even talked themselves into the Lakers–Warriors second-round sequence — between two groups that mixed to go 87-77 within the common season — because the “actual” convention finals.

Yeah, not a lot.

Flip to 2024, and we virtually have the alternative downside. Individuals communicate of the Nuggets in hallowed phrases, with the phrase “inevitable” being thrown round. Don’t get me incorrect — they’re good — however that description could also be a bit wealthy for a workforce that’s all the time one harm away from taking part in extraordinarily makeshift lineups. Nitpickers additionally will level out that Denver glided via a cleaned-out bracket final 12 months, dealing with two eighth seeds and a seventh seed on the way in which to glory. The Nuggets have been worthy, asterisk-free 2023 champions, however 2024 is a special 12 months.

And the Celtics? Till the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown core wins the massive one in June, they’ll all the time have doubters. However that’s no totally different from a number of different eventual champions; folks thought the identical factor in regards to the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (did too) and Kevin Garnett’s Celtics and Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavs and numerous others, proper up till final 12 months’s Nuggets.

I have to level out the chances are fairly closely in Boston’s favor to get it completed this time. Of the 15 groups to submit a margin of plus-9.3 or larger in an 82-game NBA season — taking us two factors beneath what the Celtics did — solely the 2015-16 Warriors (who misplaced the NBA Finals in seven video games) and the 2015-16 Spurs didn’t win a title. The opposite 13 gained, many in romps.

Even if you happen to simply have a look at primary wins and losses, groups that each win 60 video games and have the league’s finest report have ended up successful the title greater than half the time: 16 occasions in 31 circumstances. The final a kind of was Phoenix in 2022, which went out with a whimper within the second spherical in opposition to Dallas after successful the identical 64 video games these Celtics gained, in order that recency bias could also be tilting us just a little.

I’ll provide you with one more reason to love Boston: The Celtics are considered one of solely 4 groups within the “52-3-3” membership, and the one one within the East. Of the NBA’s 44 champions since 1980, 43 of them gained no less than 52 video games (pro-rated to 82 for shortened campaigns), had no less than a plus-3.0 scoring margin and have been one of many high three seeds of their convention. That winnows down your discipline of potential champions to the highest three seeds within the West (Oklahoma Metropolis, Denver and Minnesota) and the Celtics.

To counter my level, some argue load administration, to not point out common coasting by elite groups, has made the common season much less determinative than it was once. Final spring, as an illustration, we had first-round upsets by groups seeded fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth, with a No. 7 seed making the West finals (Lakers) and a No. 8 seed (Miami) crashing the NBA Finals. Decrease-seeded groups gained seven of the 15 sequence general. (From that perspective, reviewing my very own efficiency, getting 9 of the 15 bracket traces appropriate earlier than the playoffs began feels fairly good.)

However even in latest historical past, a postseason like final 12 months’s is uncommon. A typical NBA playoffs solely sees 4 groups with out home-court benefit advance out of the 15 sequence; we solely had two in 2019, 2017 and 2015, and earlier than final 12 months, we hadn’t had greater than 5 since 1995.

Nevertheless, maybe this season the playoffs are rife for extra upsets as a result of the standings are so jumbled (nicely, apart from Boston). Each East playoff workforce apart from the Celtics completed with between 46 and 50 wins; the striations within the West have been a bit deeper, however each sequence nonetheless appears to be like aggressive up and down the board.

Projecting this postseason was maddening, particularly within the East. However the larger concern is adjusting for the unknown of who is definitely taking part in. Late-season accidents to elite gamers may massively tilt the chances if they’ll’t play. Already we’ve seen that within the Play-In, with Zion Williamson and Jimmy Butler out and Alex Caruso questionable.

Extra questions loom for the primary spherical. How a lot are we going to see of Giannis Antetokounmpo? Joel Embiid? Kawhi Leonard? And what of men like Tyrese Haliburton and Donovan Mitchell, who’re virtually actually taking part in however may not be at full energy?

So, we bravely go into this figuring out the potential to look silly is off the charts. Even the Celtics, as dominant as they have been within the common season, don’t essentially get a free move to the title. Pretty much as good as they’re up and down the roster, they gained’t have the most effective participant on the ground in a number of potential matchups, which is all the time worrisome. Moreover, accidents, slumps, scorching streaks and common weirdness can all the time throw a wrench into a brief sequence.

However we don’t purpose for clairvoyance right here. I’m simply attempting to venture what’s probably. Inevitably, I gained’t go 15-for-15 or anyplace near it. Nevertheless, after agonizing over a number of matchups — notably within the 1-4-5 bracket within the West — right here’s what I feel is probably to occur this postseason. Apologies if it’s chalkier than you’d desire.

West first spherical

No. 1 Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder vs. No. 8 Sacramento Kings or New Orleans Pelicans

I’m undecided these might be completely snug sequence for the Thunder, even when they play the Pelicans with out Williamson. New Orleans has waves of defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Brandon Ingram has all the time performed higher when he’s not sharing the courtroom with Williamson. Sacramento, in the meantime, has the flexibility to bodily mash OKC with Domantas Sabonis and gained two of the 4 regular-season conferences between the groups.

However there’s an enormous distinction between being uncomfortable and being on the incorrect facet of the scoreboard 4 occasions in seven video games. Sacramento can also be short-handed due to late-season accidents to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, leaving it underpowered in opposition to a Thunder workforce that has too many offensive weapons of its personal. I’ll give the Kings their respect and say they’ll prolong the sequence a bit, whereas New Orleans in all probability solely has sufficient left within the tank to seize one sport. Choose: Thunder in six vs. Kings; Thunder in 5 vs. Pelicans

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

My primary rule of thumb is that groups with out home-court benefit within the first spherical are toast until they no less than break up the season sequence. The Lakers misplaced to Denver 3-0.

Right here’s the opposite, extra compelling motive to select in opposition to Los Angeles: Even when Anthony Davis and LeBron James have been on the courtroom collectively, the Lakers simply weren’t that good. They completed the season with a plus-0.6 scoring margin, the worst of any of the 18 groups with a successful regular-season report. Even with their dynamic duo on the ground, they have been solely plus-3.4 factors per 100 possessions. That’s the worst quantity on the board from a playoff workforce with its two finest gamers, apart from New Orleans.

In the meantime, the Nuggets are ridiculous when their starters play. To the extent they struggled this season, it was virtually totally with bench-heavy no matter items absorbing minutes. Heck, even after they performed Aaron Gordon because the backup 5 and never considered one of Zeke Nnaji or DeAndre Jordan, they nonetheless had a greater scoring margin than the Lakers.

In consequence, I don’t assume this chapter within the sequence will go significantly better for Los Angeles than the earlier ones. The Lakers have performed a sequence of shut video games in opposition to Denver during the last two years and can ultimately win no less than considered one of them. But when Nikola Jokić finishes the sequence upright, it’s onerous to see how Denver doesn’t advance. Choose: Nuggets in 5

No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns

One among my finest preseason predictions — or so I assumed — was that Minnesota would win a playoff sequence for the primary time since 2004. After which this occurs! The Wolves drew maybe the worst attainable opponent in Phoenix, a workforce that beat them soundly thrice within the common season.

Furthermore, the explanation the Suns beat them makes conceptual sense. The Wolves love drop protection and excel at retaining opponents away from the rim; the Suns aren’t all that concerned about getting there within the first place. Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant are Crew Pull-Up, devouring opponents by raining jumpers after they can get area coming round a display screen. Moreover, the Suns afford no clear hiding spot for Karl-Anthony Cities, forcing him to examine a fringe scorer.

Clearly there are changes Minnesota could make to take this away, however this isn’t how the Wolves wish to play or what they do finest. Probably the most radical adjustment could be to restrict the minutes of Cities and Naz Reid and go massively smaller with Kyle Anderson on the 4, however which will compromise Minnesota’s spacing an excessive amount of. The opposite adjustment, after all, is to attain a lot that it doesn’t matter; the Suns aren’t an amazing defensive squad, and the Wolves would possibly be capable to mash them to items within the paint.

Nonetheless, the story right here feels extra about Phoenix. After a sequence of matches and begins, Phoenix closed the 12 months on a 30-15 clip and at last tasks because the workforce we thought it could be at the beginning of the season. The Suns aren’t deep, however their beginning 5 had a plus-11.1 per 100 scoring margin, and a number of other items with Eric Gordon or Royce O’Neale have been almost pretty much as good. Phoenix could not have the depth to make a deep run, particularly up entrance, and well being worries all the time hold over this workforce’s 4 finest gamers. However in a single quick sequence in opposition to an ideal matchup for them, the place they arrive in wholesome? Yeah, they’re a handful. Choose: Suns in six

No. 4 LA Clippers vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks

This one is a good unknown on some ranges, and never simply due to Leonard’s unsure standing.

These groups haven’t performed since Dec. 20, and even that sport was lacking each Paul George and Kyrie Irving. Whereas the Clippers gained two of three within the common season, each groups have modified dramatically since opening day. The Clippers added James Harden, moved Russell Westbrook to the bench and upgraded Amir Coffey to a rotation spot; Dallas traded for Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington and retooled round them.

Each groups even have had superior stretches — a 16-2 run by Dallas earlier than shutting its gamers down for the 12 months, a 32-9 half-season eruption from the Clippers — and have spectacular numbers with their stars on the courtroom. Dallas outscores opponents by 10.5 factors per 100 when Luka Dončić and Irving share the courtroom, whereas the Clippers are plus-12.6 per 100 with George and Leonard.

These groups additionally met within the playoffs in 2020 and 2021, with the 2021 sequence particularly being a seven-game traditional by which the highway workforce gained the primary six video games. The Clippers gained each of these sequence and, on paper, would appear to have a slight edge on this one; first, as a result of three stars are higher than two; and second, as a result of their second-line gamers are higher than Dallas’, even with the commerce deadline upgrades.

However Playoff Luka has been a cheat code, and I’m undecided Leonard can match him in his present state. Return and have a look at the sequence from 2021: That Clippers workforce was a lot stronger than this one, with peak Leonard and a powerful bench; they screwed with load administration all 12 months and nonetheless ended up with a plus-6 scoring margin, and but within the playoffs, they’d their palms full with Luka. Dončić goes to assault Ivica Zubac many times in pick-and-roll, similar to he did in that sequence, and I’m undecided what the Clippers’ counters are.

Now that Dončić has Irving as his wingman, even when the second-line guys aren’t pretty much as good, I nonetheless like Dallas’ probabilities. That’s very true when the choice is betting on Leonard to remain wholesome via a postseason sequence. I count on this sequence to be great theater, and if Leonard is wholesome, the Clippers are an actual risk to make the convention finals. But when pressured to decide on, I belief Dallas a bit extra. Choose: Mavs in seven

East first spherical

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Miami Warmth or Chicago Bulls

Let’s see, essentially the most dominant workforce within the league dealing with both the Warmth with out Butler or the Bulls doubtlessly with out Caruso. Yeah, this needs to be transient. Boston swept each groups 3-0 within the common season; all three wins over Chicago have been by double figures. Perhaps the underdogs take a sport whereas the Celtics play with their meals; extra probably, although, the top is merciful and fast. Choose: Celtics in 4

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

Embiid confirmed within the Play-In in opposition to Miami that he nonetheless isn’t fairly at full energy along with his motion, and that harm the Sixers at occasions. Even so, Philadelphia is now a powerful 30-7 this season when Embiid and Tyrese Maxey each play, with the Sixers outscoring opponents by 12.4 factors per 100 possessions within the minutes they share the courtroom collectively. That’s spectacular, however two issues fear me about Philly.

First, I simply don’t assume its supporting solid is nice sufficient, particularly if De’Anthony Melton can’t make it again into the combination. Second, the Knicks have some superior numbers of their very own. The small pattern dimension of OG Anunoby minutes has seen them crush groups. Extra notably, even within the a lot bigger pattern of minutes with just about any mixture of Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein, they’ve run groups off the ground. New York is plus-15.2 per 100 when these 4 play collectively, and due to Tom Thibodeau, we have now a fairly large minutes pattern to work with from that group.

Not having Julius Randle is a little bit of a fear, however the Knicks on-off numbers with and with out Randle this 12 months aren’t all that totally different; the place his absence hurts is that if one other harm hits and forces secondary gamers into outstanding roles. Specifically, if something occurs to Brunson, the Knicks have no person who can dribble; their offense already craters when he’s off the ground.

It’s tempting to journey Embiid and choose Philly for the upset, however I feel this sequence finally ends up underscoring that the Sixers have to get him and Maxey extra assist this summer season. Choose: Knicks in six

No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 6 Indiana Pacers

You possibly can inform me actually something about how this sequence ends and it wouldn’t shock me.

Instantly, it units off my hazard radar as a result of Indiana beat the Bucks 4 occasions within the common season, together with the In-Season Event semifinal in Las Vegas, which is without doubt one of the situations to search for when scouting potential first-round upsets. Moreover, Antetokounmpo is prone to miss a while at the beginning of the sequence. (Whereas we’re right here: Recreation 3 is at 5:30 p.m. Japanese on a Friday. What the hell, NBA?)

My numbers say the benefit tilts towards Indy within the non-Giannis video games, exposing the rot within the Bucks’ second unit attributable to age and cap constraints. If the Pacers can hold pushing tempo, they’ll make their superior depth an element because the sequence wears on.

Nevertheless, be aware that every one 5 conferences occurred earlier than the Bucks modified coaches; as our Seth Partnow and Kelly Iko famous, Milwaukee’s transition protection improved beneath Doc Rivers after the Pacers ran the Bucks off the ground of their early season wins over them.

Two issues maintain me again from choosing the Indy upset. First, Haliburton nonetheless doesn’t fairly appear all the way in which again to being the participant he was in December. Second, the commerce of Buddy Hield left an open sore at taking pictures guard, one the Pacers can solely kind of fill with the T.J. McConnell Expertise due to how he overlaps with Haliburton. If Giannis comes again and performs in some unspecified time in the future, I feel the Bucks hold on. Choose: Bucks in seven

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Orlando Magic

That is one other sequence by which the well being of a star is a significant component, as Mitchell’s sore knee looms over this one. He wasn’t himself for a lot of the second half of the season however did come again and rating 29 and 33 factors in two video games final week.

It’s a high-pressure sequence for the Cavs, given the questions hanging over Mitchell’s future and the roster normally. Cleveland leaned right into a 3-point-heavy fashion constructed round Mitchell and ground spacers throughout Evan Mobley’s absence however flamed out late, going 12-17 after the All-Star break whereas coping with Mitchell’s harm and attempting to reintegrate Mobley.

Nonetheless, tanking their ultimate sport in opposition to Charlotte handed them the advantage of a first-round sequence in opposition to Orlando. The Magic are robust, bodily and reside within the paint, however that’s in all probability a factor the Cavs can deal with provided that they’ve two elite rim protectors in Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Orlando desperately wants some perimeter gamers to make pictures and open up the paint; we’re taking a look at you, Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris.

Additionally: Don’t count on quite a lot of scoring. Mitchell can have his palms full with Suggs’ protection, whereas Paolo Banchero has to cope with the Cavs’ Mobley. Orlando might be looking for ground spacing all sequence; the Cavs probably might be, too, relying on who performs. Which coach goes for offense guys first?

Traditionally, these sequence go to the No. 5 seed about half the time, so on paper, Orlando has an opportunity. The groups tied the season sequence 2-2, however the final assembly was in February. This seems like one the place the Cavs perhaps don’t all the time look nice however do sufficient to outlive and advance. Choose: Cavs in six

West semifinals

No. 1 Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks

Take into account this the primary installment in what might be an amazing Purple River rivalry over the following few years.

That is new territory for the Thunder’s children, however that doesn’t imply they’ll’t hold at this stage. Oklahoma Metropolis’s guard-heavy fashion interprets nicely to the postseason, and have a look at how nicely the Thunder performed with their finest gamers on the courtroom: Items with Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren smoked opponents by 11.6 factors per 100 possessions, a quantity that improved to 12.0 in items with these two and Jalen Williams. That’s even higher than how Dallas fared in Dončić-Irving pairings.

Oklahoma Metropolis gained two of the three regular-season conferences, however the final one was a gimme by which the Mavs sat all their gamers and the Thunder gained by 49. Of extra import, maybe, is a sport on Feb. 2 when the Mavs smoked them 146-111. That additionally was the one sport Dončić performed in opposition to Oklahoma Metropolis this season. Due to that, there’s a temptation to roll with Dallas, however just a few issues tilt me again to the Thunder.

To start with, Gilgeous-Alexander is Dončić’s equal as a scorer and shot creator, if not as a passer, and I’m undecided Dallas has anybody who can gradual him down defensively. Alongside the identical vein, Oklahoma Metropolis’s small lineups may run Dallas’ bigs off the ground and pressure the Mavs to dip even additional into their bag of not-so-great forwards and wings. Tactically, Mark Daigneault has proven he has much more tips in his bag than Jason Kidd, and that might additionally matter in an extended, shut sequence.

All of those tie into a much bigger query: How, precisely, are the Mavs getting stops on this sequence? I’m undecided they’re. Even when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the courtroom or double-teamed, have a look at his supporting solid. The Thunder don’t have Irving, however they do have Holmgren, Williams and three or 4 random guys they’ll usher in and get a double-figure scoring elevate from (Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, perhaps even Gordon Hayward) with out compromising themselves on protection. They might want no less than considered one of them if Josh Giddey will get schemed off the courtroom.

Lastly, we are able to’t forecast accidents, however we are able to say the Thunder’s depth makes them extra resilient to any non-SGA harm than the Mavs could be. Add all of it up and I’ll choose the Thunder for one more spherical. Choose: Thunder in seven

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns

In a repeat of the second-round sequence from a 12 months in the past, I’m undecided this one goes any higher for the Suns.

Final 12 months, the Suns evened the sequence 2-2 behind a scorching scorching Booker earlier than Denver’s protection took management over the ultimate two video games. This time round, Beal replaces Chris Paul and Jusuf Nurkić supplants Deandre Ayton, and the Suns have higher solutions off the pine than the various T.J. Warrens and Terence Rosses they turned to final spring. Phoenix additionally gained two of the three regular-season conferences.

Nonetheless, I can’t see the film ending in another way for the Suns this time, not when Durant is a 12 months older and the Nuggets’ beginning 5 nonetheless dominates video games to such an enormous extent. Even the elite numbers put up by Phoenix’s finest lineups aren’t any match for what the Nuggets have completed in Jokić-Jamal Murray minutes (a staggering plus-15.2) or in a number of comparable mixtures with totally different starters; the beginning group as a complete is plus-13.6 per 100.

A 12 months in the past, it felt just like the Suns have been overmatched as soon as Booker’s scorching scorching hand cooled off just a little; this time round, the vibes really feel comparable. Phoenix can shoot its method to a few wins, probably, however not 4 occasions out of seven. Choose: Nuggets in six

East semifinals

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland’s finest sport of the second half of the season got here March 5, when the Cavs rallied from a 22-point fourth-quarter deficit with 9 minutes left to defeat Boston 105-104 with out Mitchell. Nevertheless, they misplaced their different two conferences in opposition to Boston and, on paper, don’t appear to have the horses to hold with the Celtics. With Derrick White and Jrue Vacation, Boston can throw a number of elite perimeter defenders at Mitchell too. (Yeah, this bracket isn’t doing poor Donovan any favors.)

The Cavs may not have sufficient spacing in opposition to Boston until they’ll play smaller, however they misplaced considered one of their finest alternate choices to an Allen-Mobley frontcourt with Dean Wade’s knee sprain. Wade, a stretch 4 who torched Boston in that comeback win, missed the ultimate 19 regular-season video games. It’s not clear when he’ll be again.

This one seems like one other pretty snug sequence for Boston. With a full-bore Mitchell, the Cavs have sufficient expertise to take a sport or two, however in a best-of-seven sequence, Boston’s superior perimeter dimension, backcourt protection and taking pictures ought to win the day. Choose: Celtics in 5

No. 2 New York Knicks vs.  No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks

This shapes up as a great sequence on paper; I’m undecided it can play out that method in actuality.

The Bucks did win three of the 5 video games between the groups within the common season, however 4 of these occurred earlier than New 12 months’s Day. New York gained the latest assembly, with intact rosters on each side.

The Bucks additionally don’t appear well-equipped to deal with Brunson’s slippery pick-and-roll sport, with Vacation gone and Damian Lillard in his place. They’ll attempt Patrick Beverley, absolutely, however he additionally tends to rack up fouls.

On the flip facet, the addition of Anunoby provides the Knicks a go-to defender to make use of on Antetokounmpo, and so they nonetheless have a few secondary choices (Hartenstein, Valuable Achiuwa) in reserve. One different issue to observe: The Knicks wrecked folks on the offensive glass, main the league in offensive rebound charge, however the Bucks have been superb on the defensive boards, ending fifth.

Larger image, this can be a name on what the Knicks constructed through the second half of the season, a whole-greater-than-the-sum unit that stampeded the league when intact. The Bucks have the most effective participant in Antetokounmpo, and the Knicks’ lack of perimeter dimension is a bit worrisome, however I nonetheless like New York. Choose: Knicks in six

West finals

No. 1 Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder vs. No. 2 Denver Nuggets

The Thunder and Nuggets performed thrice this season, with the Nuggets finishing outclassing them within the first assembly, the Thunder doing the identical within the final and the center sport taking place to the wire earlier than Gilgeous-Alexander made a shot within the ultimate seconds to offer the Thunder a one-point win.

Seems like a great components for an incredible sequence, proper? This wasn’t a case of the Thunder’s subs beating up on Denver’s subs, both. Jokić was a minus-7 over the three video games, whereas Gilgeous-Alexander was a plus-2. That’s essential as a result of the starters are prone to play a a lot larger chunk of the sport within the playoffs than within the common season, and Denver’s starters are superior.

How superior? Each Denver four-man combo with no less than 4 of the starters had a double-figure per 100 scoring margin. The Nuggets have been dramatically worse after they needed to play a number of bench gamers on the identical time, with just about each two-man combo that includes two bench gamers having a unfavorable margin, however that figures to occur a lot much less within the playoffs.

The Thunder, in the meantime, had extra distributed excellence; quite a lot of their second-unit teams have been extremely productive, particularly ones with Joe in them. Nevertheless, these teams are inclined to play quite a bit much less within the playoffs, and if they’re used extra, they’re going in opposition to starters as an alternative of backups.

This might be a traditional between the probably top-two finishers in MVP voting; it additionally often is the first sequence by which the Thunder’s lack of playoff expertise involves bear. Between that and the Jokić cheat code, I nonetheless just like the Nuggets to prevail in a troublesome sequence. Choose: Nuggets in six

East finals

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 New York Knicks

A Boston-New York convention finals will certainly break the league report for eff-youz between followers. Might it’s aggressive on the courtroom too? I’m much less certain of that.

New York gained the ultimate assembly between the groups after Boston had already clinched the East’s high seed, however the Celtics gained the primary 4 occasions they performed, and three of them have been by double figures.

Two issues stand out right here. First,  the Celtics can throw each White and Vacation at Brunson, forcing him to earn his factors in opposition to two of the most effective guard defenders in basketball. Second, New York’s smallness on the wings might be extra of an element when the Knicks try to examine Tatum and Brown; Anunoby can deal with considered one of them, however they’re asking a 6-4 man to take the opposite.

You may see different angles that may not favor New York both; Boston can convey higher gamers off its bench, and if any harm attrition occurs, that additionally favors the Celtics. It’s been a heck of a 12 months for New York, however that is the place I get off the bandwagon. Choose: Celtics in six

NBA Finals

No. 1. Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 Denver Nuggets

You may need guessed my prediction from the intro. I had Boston over Phoenix earlier than the season began, however the Suns haven’t fairly regarded sturdy sufficient, so I’ve pivoted.

The Nuggets have confirmed themselves in these conditions, and their beginning teams are deadly. However Boston’s excellence extends all through the rotation, and the Celtics can have an enormous benefit any time bench items are concerned. Sure, that figures to occur much less in an NBA Finals sequence than in a regular-season pairing, however these minutes nonetheless depend.

Denver did win two shut video games in opposition to Boston within the common season, and each have been legit, asterisk-free matchups by which every workforce performed its starters. Oddly, each groups shot horribly from 3, a pattern that might favor the Nuggets if it held up within the Finals just because they shoot so few of them.

Ultimately, you marvel if 3s will mater otherwise, in that math could be Boston’s difference-maker: The Celtics took 3s on a league-leading 47.1 % of their discipline purpose makes an attempt, whereas the Nuggets have been final at 35.2 %.

Regardless, this shapes up as an superior, get-your-popcorn sequence, that includes the league’s finest participant and defending champion in opposition to its most dominant regular-season workforce.

I do know the Tatum-era Celtics have struggled in a few of these moments earlier than, however they’ve been the most effective workforce all 12 months by a large margin. This time, I feel they lastly recover from the hump. Choose: Celtics in seven

(High photograph of Nikola Jokić and Kristaps Porzingis: Winslow Townson / Getty Pictures)