(Editor’s observe: That is a part of the Bracket Central Sequence, an inside have a look at the run-up to the lads’s and ladies’s NCAA Tournaments, together with evaluation and picks through the tournaments.)
Since Florida repeated as nationwide champs in 2007, no defending champion has superior previous the Candy 16. That ends this 12 months.
Connecticut is probably the most full workforce in school basketball, and it’s going to finish that streak and repeat as nationwide champions. That was my pre-bracket prediction and I’m sticking with it, however the choice committee actually has me uneasy about that prediction. The Huskies acquired no favors as the highest general seed. You possibly can argue that UConn has the hardest path to Phoenix as any of the highest seeds. Iowa State has the perfect protection in school basketball. Illinois has among the finest offenses and was a workforce pre-bracket that I used to be fairly certain I might push by to the Last 4, and Auburn is the candidate to be this season’s UConn.
My different pre-bracket rule: Fade the Large 12. The league is probably the most bodily within the nation and its groups, exterior of Iowa State, are coming into the NCAA Event bruised and battered. And should you look by the all-conference groups within the Large 12, the expertise will not be similar to previous years. There aren’t numerous professionals, and the expertise is down. There are nonetheless numerous good groups, however for many of the 12 months it felt like Houston was the one nice one. And Houston is a shell of itself proper now.
Typically it’s a curse to observe numerous school basketball as a result of it results in going too chalky. Final season, that may have gotten you in actual bother. This 12 months the highest is stronger. It’s not simply the attention take a look at. Adjusted effectivity margins at KenPom.com counsel this as properly. For example, final season’s No. 1 coming into the event (Houston) can be this season’s No. 3. Final season’s No. 2 (UCLA) would fall to No. 6 this 12 months. The numbers a 12 months in the past had been hinting at potential chaos. This 12 months we may get a extra chalky Last 4.
Now, perhaps you’ve come right here for assist together with your bracket. My recommendation: When you’re satisfied that UConn is the perfect workforce, then decide the Huskies. However should you’re not, there’s numerous worth in selecting Purdue. The Boilermakers have been among the finest two groups within the nation all season, however lots of people are going to select an early upset as a result of Matt Painter’s workforce has misplaced within the first spherical in two of the final three tournaments — together with No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson final 12 months. This isn’t the identical Purdue workforce. That one featured freshmen guards who had been carrying down. Now Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer are sophomores, and Smith, particularly, has made a giant leap and is among the finest level guards within the nation. He additionally has playmaking assist in Southern Illinois switch guard Lance Jones.
I’m sticking with UConn, however I’ve bought Purdue within the championship sport.
Let’s get to the nitty gritty now. Here’s a region-by-region breakdown.
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East Area
• The second spherical is the primary potential pothole for UConn. Northwestern took Purdue to time beyond regulation twice this season and has one of many best-scoring guards in America in Boo Buie. His potential to punish drop protection is why I’m hesitant to take Florida Atlantic within the first spherical. FAU’s protection is designed to surrender bounce photographs within the mid-range. Buie doesn’t take numerous mid-range jumpers, however he’s among the finest pick-and-roll scorers within the nation and has an efficient field-goal proportion of 58.6 on photographs off the dribble, per Synergy.
The Owls have carried out their finest coming off their lowest factors, and dropping to Temple within the AAC event was a low. Dusty Could’s workforce will likely be motivated and in addition probably a scary matchup for UConn, because the Owls additionally play their finest towards prime competitors — they knocked off Arizona in Las Vegas simply earlier than Christmas.
• Auburn is approach underseeded should you’re a believer in metrics. The Tigers rank No. 4 at KenPom.com, and as acknowledged earlier, they’re an excellent candidate to be the UConn of this event. UConn was additionally No. 4 at KenPom going into final 12 months’s bracket and in addition was a No. 4 seed with the defending nationwide champs (Kansas) as its No. 1 seed in its area.
The Tigers have double-digit wins in 26 of their 27 wins. Final season, UConn had double-digit wins in 19 of its 25 victories heading into the NCAA Event after which received all of its tourney video games by double digits. That is potential pothole No. 2 for the Huskies, assuming Auburn can get previous Yale (Ivy League was among the finest mid-major leagues this 12 months) and San Diego State, which has one in every of school basketball’s finest scoring bigs in Jaedon LeDee.
• One good upset decide on this area could possibly be Duquesne over BYU. The Dukes maintain their opponents to 31.7 p.c 3-point capturing, and BYU lives and dies by the three. Dayton might be the closest equal to BYU on Duquesne’s schedule; Duquesne bought swept by Dayton within the common season however simply upset the Flyers within the A-10 event.
• Drake will likely be a preferred 10-7 upset decide as a result of it’ll have the perfect participant on the ground in Tucker DeVries, who will likely be in search of tourney redemption. Final season, Drake led Miami by eight with beneath 5 minutes to go and ended up blowing the late lead, and DeVries scored three factors on 1-of-13 capturing in that sport. Washington State depends so much on scoring contained in the arc and was the second-best offensive-rebounding workforce within the Pac-12. Drake’s 2-point protection — permitting 51.9 p.c — will not be nice, however it’s the finest defensive-rebounding workforce within the nation.
Iowa State may have the perfect homecourt benefit the opening weekend. Iowa State followers like to journey to see their Cyclones, and it’s a brief drive to Omaha. They simply took over the T-Cellular Middle in Kansas Metropolis.
• Illinois has received seven of eight video games coming into the event, with that one loss coming to Purdue. The Illini have the positional measurement to match up with UConn. Their protection — 91st at KenPom — is suspect, however it doesn’t make numerous sense once you have a look at the roster. Terrence Shannon Jr. is usually a lockdown defender on the perimeter when he needs to be, and Coleman Hawkins is among the most versatile defenders within the nation. Shannon is averaging 31.8 factors over his final 4 video games, and he could be the hardest wing in school basketball to defend. (It’s him or Dalton Knecht.)
I’m undecided Illinois has the defensive self-discipline to deal with all the motion and off-ball screening motion from UConn, however I used to be tempted to make this upset decide. If UConn finally ends up repeating, the Last 4 may find yourself a better two video games than the second weekend. UConn doesn’t play by Donovan Clingan within the put up so much, however this could possibly be a sport to present him the ball so much, as he has a measurement and power benefit on Hawkins. (The Illini do have behemoth Dain Dainja off the bench.) Clingan’s rim safety can even be vital, as Shannon and Marcus Domask each dwell within the paint.
If Tyler Kolek is wholesome, Marquette could make the Last 4. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Photos)
South Area
• Nebraska has by no means received a NCAA Event sport, however that is the 12 months! The important thing will likely be attempting to maintain Texas A&M off the offensive glass. The Aggies are the perfect offensive-rebounding workforce within the nation. Nebraska ranks 223rd in defensive rebounding fee. Whoever wins this sport is an effective candidate to upset Houston.
• Houston is probably the most susceptible No. 1 seed with J’Wan Roberts getting injured within the Large 12 event. Roberts, who damage his shin within the semis, did play within the closing however lasted solely 13 minutes. The Cougars are additionally lacking their two finest bench gamers, and Kelvin Sampson doesn’t have numerous confidence in his reserves proper now.
Among the best weapons to have towards Houston’s ball-screen protection is a pick-and-pop, playmaking 5 and Nebraska has that in Rienk Mast. If it’s Texas A&M advancing within the first spherical, the Aggies can match Houston’s physicality. And whereas Houston’s an excellent offensive-rebounding workforce, it’s not nice proper now on the defensive glass, particularly since dropping backup middle Joseph Tugler. The Aggies struggled capturing the ball many of the season, however they’re averaging 83 factors and are 5-1 since inserting Manny Obaseki into the beginning lineup.
I’ve gone backwards and forwards on who will win Nebraska-A&M. My preliminary intestine decide was Nebraska, however I’m wavering and would most likely change my decide if I hadn’t already submitted my bracket! However forgot the wavering. The Huskers usually are not solely going to win their first tourney sport in class historical past; they’re making the Candy 16.
• Wisconsin and Duke have tough first-round matchups, and Vermont or James Madison can be worthwhile upset picks. I used to be hesitant as a result of I’ve bought Houston dropping and really feel like it is a robust 4-5 area. My logic for choosing Wisconsin is that Duke’s inside protection is smooth. Wisconsin’s Steven Crowl is taking part in properly and will likely be a matchup drawback for Duke within the put up. Wisconsin is 15-6 when he scores in double figures.
• Texas Tech is one other Large 12 workforce damage by accidents. Beginning middle Warren Washington has missed eight of the final 9 video games, and he went scoreless in 13 minutes in his one look throughout that stretch. Beginning wing Darrion Williams, one in every of Texas Tech’s most vital items, additionally sat out the Houston sport with an ankle harm. I’d anticipate each to play, however NC State is already a tough matchup with the red-hot DJ Burns. I used to be going to select towards the Wolfpack within the opening spherical as a result of I figured they’d be a drained workforce, however the well being of the Pink Raiders worries me extra.
• Marquette may have a difficult second-round sport, whether or not it’s Florida, Colorado or Boise State. Each the Gators and Buffaloes are proficient, and the Broncos went 13-5 in a difficult Mountain West and had the league’s finest offense in convention play. Additionally, there’s the priority of Tyler Kolek and his indirect harm.
However I’ve been excessive on the Golden Eagles all season, they usually’ve felt like a workforce that can peak in March after getting upset within the second spherical final season by Michigan State. Normally, when a veteran workforce has a loss like that and returns most of its core, it’s a protected guess that the workforce goes on a run. (See 2019 Virginia for probably the most excessive instance.)
• Kentucky and Illini are the 2 groups on this bracket that give off probably the most 2023 Miami vibes. Each are electrical on offense and suspect on protection. I belief the Illini extra as a result of they’re older. If Marquette-Kentucky occurs within the Candy 16, it’ll be tremendous watchable and sure fast-paced. Want we knew precisely how wholesome Kolek will likely be, however Marquette is a nightmare matchup for Kentucky’s protection. Kentucky’s ball-screen protection has been brutal for a lot of the season, and Kolek and Oso Ighodaro are among the finest pick-and-roll tandems within the nation. Marquette can also guard.
• Shaka Good is 0-3 towards Wisconsin because the coach at Marquette, together with a 75-64 loss in Madison this 12 months. That was one of many worst video games of the season for Kolek and Ighodaro. The Badgers dared Kolek to shoot and took away Ighodaro on the roll. Ighodaro completed with simply 5 factors on 5 photographs, and Kolek went 1-of-5 from distance.
Since Jan. 15, the one two groups to beat Marquette are Creighton and Connecticut. Marquette was not fairly in the precise headspace early within the season when it misplaced that sport however it’s quietly been among the finest groups within the nation the final two months and nonetheless performed fairly properly with Kolek sidelined. Good is lastly going to get a win on this rivalry sport, sending Marquette to its first Last 4 since 2003.
West Area
That is the area finest arrange for chaos, so let’s get bizarre.
• Mississippi State simply upset Tennessee within the SEC event and has the our bodies to throw at North Carolina’s Armando Bacot. Chris Jans is among the finest defensive coaches within the nation, and his workforce is holding opponents to 29.4 p.c capturing from deep. He’ll you should definitely restrict the appears for RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan.
The Bulldogs will tempt Elliot Cadeau into capturing. He’s seen the dork protection earlier than — when groups sag off him on the perimeter — typically he’s baited into capturing. He’s made simply 8-of-44 3s all season. Jans has one of many hottest scorers within the nation too, with freshman guard Josh Hubbard averaging 25.4 factors over his final eight. A sensible sport plan and a scorching Hubbard are the distinction within the second spherical. And if it’s Sparty taking part in the Heels, that’s a core that went on a shock run final 12 months.
• Grand Canyon has among the finest skills on this area in Tyon Grant-Foster, the previous Kansas/DePaul wing who sat out the final two years with a coronary heart drawback and returned to the ground this season to common 19.8 factors per sport. I went to see Grant-Foster play for the primary time when he was the top-rated juco recruit at Indian Hills Neighborhood School in Iowa. He’s at all times had the expertise, and Bryce Drew has introduced out the perfect of him. This is among the most heartwarming tales in school basketball. Grand Canyon has a proficient roster round him too, however I’m selecting this upset with my coronary heart. It’d be cool to see Grant-Foster have his second on this stage.
• New Mexico was probably the most proficient workforce within the Mountain West however battled accidents and inconsistent play and completed sixth within the convention standings. However the Lobos bought scorching this weekend, successful the MWC event, they usually’re wholesome now and metric darlings. They rank No. 23 at KenPom, in order that’d counsel they’re underseeded. They’ve a possible second-round matchup with Baylor, which has an elite offense however has been mediocre defensively the final two seasons.
The Lobos aren’t an excellent matchup for Arizona within the Candy 16. When the Wildcats have struggled this 12 months, it’s been towards groups that may make the most of Oumar Ballo within the pick-and-roll. The Lobos P&R handlers end the second-most possessions of anybody in school hoops, per Synergy. They’ve among the finest guard trios within the nation in Donovan Dent, Jaelen Home and Jamal Mashburn Jr. In addition they have Nelly Junior Joseph, who’s large and powerful sufficient to take care of Ballo on the blocks.
• I’m undecided there’s a workforce I really feel comfy selecting within the Last 4 on this area. That is the area the place it seems like the choice committee tousled. UNC and Arizona have the better paths to the Elite Eight, and I’m most likely dumb not selecting both to get there. However, once more, this feels just like the spot for chaos. And the workforce that would profit is Alabama, which had the most popular offense in school basketball for in regards to the first seven weeks of the calendar 12 months.
The Crimson Tide shoot a ton of 3s, and with that may come some variance. In addition they have a crummy protection. And so they’re in that Kentucky/Illini class of electrical offense and suspect protection. Put Illinois on this area and I’d really feel nice placing the Illini within the Last 4. I’m not so comfy going with the Crimson Tide, however it’s a workforce that’s most likely higher than its report. Most will see 11 losses and get scared. Most will see losers of 4 of their closing six and get scared. However the event is usually a reset, and groups that play distinctive types are sometimes good candidates to go on runs. Assume a few of Jim Boeheim’s mediocre Syracuse groups of the previous.
Caleb Furst and Purdue beat Tennessee in November in Hawaii. Might they meet once more within the Elite Eight. (Steven Erler / USA As we speak)
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Midwest Area
• Gonzaga and Kansas are each going to be in style Spherical 1 upset picks. McNeese State is 30-3 and coached by former LSU coach Will Wade. I used to be tempted. The Cowboys dominated the Southland, however that’s one of many worst leagues in school basketball. Mark Few hasn’t misplaced within the first spherical since 2008 and his workforce has a significant measurement benefit.
Kansas has a confidence drawback and has been the second-worst 3-point capturing workforce in school basketball the final six weeks. However Samford is definitely an excellent matchup for the Jayhawks of their susceptible state. As a result of the Bulldogs press, it’ll enable Kansas to get out within the open ground. That’s the place Dajuan Harris Jr., Kevin McCullar Jr., KJ Adams and Johnny Furphy thrive. A quick-paced sport will likely be a welcome change from the typically slog of the Large 12.
• Oregon coach Dana Altman is among the finest postseason coaches. The Geese have made the Candy 16 as a No. 7 and a No. 12 of their final two tourney appearances. Altman is thought for mixing defenses and complicated opponents within the postseason, and middle N’Faly Dante, who missed the primary half of the season, is taking part in his finest ball of the 12 months. South Carolina coach Lamont Paris will likely be teaching in solely his second NCAA Event sport. The Gamecocks are additionally No. 49 at KenPom, so this may possible be near a coin flip in Vegas. Seems like a great place to select an upset.
• Tennessee has one of many best second-round matchups irrespective of if it’s Virginia, Colorado State or Texas. That first weekend ought to assist the Vols get their swagger again after dropping two straight coming into the event. The important thing for Tennessee will likely be getting some offense from somebody along with Dalton Knecht and Zakai Zeigler. Each Josiah-Jordan James and Santiago Vescovi are in main slumps.
Creighton-Tennessee could possibly be an excellent Candy 16 sport, however right here’s betting the Vols appear like themselves once more the primary weekend and experience that confidence to the Elite Eight. That’s the place it will get tough in the event that they play Purdue, who beat them 71-67 within the opening spherical of the Maui Invitational in a sport the place neither workforce performed that nice. That was earlier than Zeigler, coming off offseason knee surgical procedure, regarded like himself, however Zach Edey dominated. Undecided the Vols have a solution for slowing Edey, and the Vols couldn’t beat Purdue with Braden Smith having one in every of his worst video games (six factors, one help, three turnovers). Purdue may find yourself reliving Honolulu, beating Tennessee and Marquette on its solution to the nationwide title sport.
• Purdue has the best path to the Elite Eight of all of the No. 1 seeds, and for that purpose it could be a sensible champion decide. In my bracket, we get the nationwide championship between the 2 groups who’ve been on the prime of the rankings for many of the 12 months and a sport I’ve needed to see. If it occurs, UConn has the massive in Clingan to gradual Edey, and UConn has higher expertise round its star large man. I don’t love UConn’s path, but when we get this sport, the Huskies are the extra full workforce. Purdue depends a ton on Smith and Edey, however all 5 of UConn’s starters may go for 20-plus any given night time.
Extra NCAA Event Protection
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(Photograph of Donovan Clingan: Sarah Stier / Getty Photos)