One 12 months in the past, NFL executives emerged from the scouting mix pondering the Chicago Bears had been open to buying and selling the primary decide within the draft. They had been proper. This 12 months, sentiment from NFL entrance places of work holds that the Bears will use the highest decide, acquired from the Carolina Panthers one 12 months in the past subsequent week, on USC quarterback Caleb Williams.
Checking in with decision-makers this time of 12 months gives a snapshot of their expectations popping out of the mix. What they assume may occur in early March evolves because the draft nears, partly as a result of coaches turn out to be extra concerned within the course of. However I discover worth in taking a snapshot to determine a baseline.
I’ve put collectively a tough prime 10 primarily based on conversations with six executives throughout and after the mix. Clear themes emerged for quarterbacks, offensive linemen and receivers, with some intrigue surrounding a QB prospect whom groups haven’t assessed as totally.
Final 12 months, execs accurately projected seven of the highest 10 gamers chosen. Bijan Robinson, Jalen Carter and Darnell Wright had been the three gamers touchdown within the precise prime 10 with out showing within the March 2023 projection.
Execs narrowly missed on offensive lineman Peter Skoronski (Tennessee picked him eleventh). They missed on cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who went seventeenth to New England. And so they whiffed on quarterback Will Levis, who was not chosen till the thirty third slot — a reminder that when QBs fall, they will plummet, as a result of solely a subset of groups will take into account one early in a given 12 months.
This 12 months, the final theme was for quarterbacks to go first, then offensive linemen, then vast receivers, with some overlap between these two last positions. Solely a few defensive gamers made the projected prime 10.
We’re not projecting potential trades beneath as a result of there are too many potentialities. Discovering logical houses for the highest-ranked gamers primarily based on the order because it stands in the present day captures the final really feel in the intervening time.
4 gamers appeared within the prime 10 on all six ballots: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Joe Alt.
5 gamers appeared on 5 of six ballots: Dallas Turner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Olu Fashanu and Malik Nabers.
JC Latham appeared on 4 ballots. Jared Verse appeared on three. Brock Bowers appeared on two. Chop Robinson and Byron Murphy II every appeared on one.
The highest 10 picks beneath have been fashioned from a consensus of the six ballots. Nabers and Latham weren’t chosen within the prime 10 as a result of there was no consensus on the place both would land, however they’d be a part of any consensus prime 10 total.
Most additionally thought J.J. McCarthy can be chosen among the many prime 10, in all probability to a group that traded up, such because the Denver Broncos. However not one of the six execs penciled him in for one of many groups already selecting within the prime 10, at the least not but.
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1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Vote distribution: Williams 6
All six execs had the Bears deciding on Williams and buying and selling incumbent starter Justin Fields. All endorsed Chicago heading down this path.
“I might be evaluating the opposite quarterbacks like loopy proper now and saying, ‘What if I moved down to 2 or three and acquired a historic return?’” one of many execs stated. “Would I nonetheless be getting a franchise quarterback?”
The strongest concern voiced concerning Williams was his tendency to carry onto the ball longer than is good for a timing-based offense. In a worst-case situation, that might result in extra third-and-long conditions, robbing an offense of consistency. However the feeling amongst execs was that Chicago mustn’t hesitate in making Williams the primary choice.
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2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Vote distribution: Daniels 5, Maye 1
5 of six execs had Daniels heading to Washington on this slot. One of many 5 initially had Maye, then modified to Daniels a couple of days later.
“I feel folks battle with Maye’s mechanics,” this exec stated.
The one holdout for Maye on this slot stated he heard Commanders normal supervisor Adam Peters was “actually into” Maye. The match could possibly be interesting. Maye and incumbent Commanders starter Sam Howell had been teammates at North Carolina. Howell may open the 2024 season because the starter if the Commanders wished to provide Maye time to assimilate.
One other exec left open the likelihood that Michigan’s McCarthy may compete with Daniels and Maye for this slot.
“If he throws nicely,” this exec stated of McCarthy, “he’s competing for the No. 2 spot. I don’t see him overtaking them, although.”
The Athletic’s Randy Mueller predicted months in the past that McCarthy may rise into the highest 5 as groups and particularly coaches realized extra about him, earlier than it was recognized whether or not McCarthy would enter the draft. Mueller, a three-time GM and one-time NFL Govt of the 12 months, additionally thinks analysts are overrating Maye primarily based on prototypical dimension, and that some groups is not going to have Maye rated as extremely.
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“I feel that entire quarterback factor between McCarthy and Maye is but to play out,” a former GM stated. “The opposite two I feel are extra set.”
For now, all six execs projected Maye being chosen second or third.
“May you say McCarthy may go within the prime 5? Sure,” the previous GM stated, “as a result of all people had him on the again burner this fall. After which Michigan was not centered across the quarterback like Oregon or Washington was, so he was not going to place up monster numbers. However then if you begin trying on the expertise and the make-up, he appears fairly good to folks.”
Vote distribution: Maye 5, Daniels 1
Each exec had the Patriots deciding on a quarterback within the first spherical. Maye was the selection extra by default than as a result of anybody thought New England was significantly excessive on him.
“I feel they’d in all probability reasonably have Jayden Daniels, however I’ll put Maye in there,” one exec stated.
One GM whose group already has a franchise quarterback thought McCarthy can be “an enormous attain” on this spot, however he conceded New England may make a daring choice with Eliot Wolf working the draft room.
“I feel they go quarterback,” this GM stated. “Do they take a shot at J.J.? Eliot received’t be afraid to if he believes within the participant. Simply take a look at what his dad has completed.”
Ron Wolf famously acquired Brett Favre from the Atlanta Falcons three a long time in the past.
“Ron Wolf’s son goes to go for the most important, quickest, most proficient athlete generally,” a unique exec stated.
Vote distribution: Joe Alt 2, Dallas Turner 2, Marvin Harrison Jr. 2
There was zero consensus on Arizona on this slot. I gave Turner to the Cardinals as a result of their protection badly wants reinforcements.
“Turner is squarely within the prime 10 now,” one exec stated, citing the Alabama product’s 4.46 within the 40-yard sprint.
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We may have despatched Harrison or Alt to the Cardinals simply the identical.
“I feel they should go go rush in the event that they keep there,” one of many execs stated. “It could possibly be Dallas Turner. Verse is perhaps a safer decide. I might assume they are going to be seeking to transfer down. There may be sufficient rush, even a Chop Robinson, to get him decrease. Seven (Titans) and 6 (Giants) may commerce up for a sort out.”
Buying and selling down from this spot makes good sense, maybe no matter how the highest three picks play out.
“I might count on them to commerce the decide,” one of many execs stated. “Take a look at how they moved again final 12 months, after which the truth that that is going to be a horny spot as a result of it permits somebody to return up from a distance to get the participant they need.”
This exec was picturing one of many quarterback-needy groups vaulting into this spot for McCarthy or Maye. The Cardinals have already dedicated to Kyler Murray as their quarterback. Transferring again to, say, the twelfth slot in a commerce with Denver may nonetheless ship the eighth-best non-quarterback within the draft for a group already set on the place.
“That could be a good distance perhaps for Arizona to return, load up on picks, together with a primary subsequent 12 months, and there are nonetheless gamers there which might be going to have equal alternative to have a major impression,” the exec stated. “They may get the No. 1 nook, the No. 2 edge man, nonetheless a very good sort out, nonetheless a very good receiver.”
Arizona has been a preferred vacation spot for Harrison in mock drafts. Whereas 4 of the six execs projected Harrison to be the primary receiver chosen, Nabers and Odunze additionally acquired votes, and Harrison wasn’t essentially seen as the most effective by a large margin.
“I feel they’ll take Marvin Harrison as a result of I feel he’s probably the most proficient, stable, all-the-way-around man,” one other exec stated. “Let me put it to you this manner: I see him being the most effective obtainable participant at the moment. If you happen to don’t take a look at him as higher than Odunze or Nabers, then yeah, perhaps you go along with Alt or Dallas Turner. However they gotta maintain giving their quarterback some gamers, too, and I feel Marvin Harrison goes to examine each field, and is extra proficient.”
Dallas Turner turned heads in Indianapolis with excellent testing numbers. (Stacy Revere / Getty Photos)
Vote distribution: Alt 2, Fashanu 2, Turner 1, Nabers 1
The primary 4 execs polled despatched an offensive lineman to the Chargers, figuring the decide would make sense symbolically for the group’s old-school coach, Jim Harbaugh. However there was some sturdy pushback in opposition to this concept as nicely, which we’ll get to in a second.
“Joe Alt is perhaps the most secure and most full of the tackles,” one exec stated. “They’ve a left sort out. They may play him at proper sort out. You will need to give the quarterback a run sport, after which you’re going to need to shield him for the primary time in his profession.”
Stable pondering, however is it stable worth?
“That’s one factor I simply don’t get,” one other exec stated. “Taking a man to play proper sort out, I simply don’t perceive that. Alt is clear, and I really like Alt, however with go rushers, there’s a massive distinction within the worth of the place to me. We are able to discover a proper sort out.”
This exec penciled in Turner for the Chargers. One other leaned towards the offensive line initially however thought Nabers would make the larger impression.
“To get Herbert a man like Nabers would give them some L.A. fireworks,” he stated.
6. New York Giants: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Vote distribution: Harrison 2, Nabers 1, Odunze 1, Latham 1, Alt 1
4 of the six execs had the Giants deciding on a receiver, however there wasn’t sturdy conviction concerning which receiver can be the selection, partly as a result of the highest three wideouts may go in nearly any order.
An exec who despatched Harrison to the Cardinals at No. 4 settled on Odunze for the Giants.
“Nabers is extra pace, whereas Odunze is extra possession, massive, sturdy, bodily,” this exec stated. “They could go along with Odunze simply because they took the pace man out of Tennessee (Jalin Hyatt) final 12 months, and this might be a very good complement.”
The Giants need assistance on their offensive line, however they’ve invested latest excessive draft selections within the place. The exec sending Latham to the Giants famous that the group appears to love SEC gamers. What a couple of quarterback?
“If you’re the Giants and J.J. McCarthy is there, I feel it’s important to take him,” one exec stated. “That doesn’t imply they are going to do it. They desperately want offensive line. Let’s simply give them Alt. I may see them saying, ‘If Jones doesn’t work this 12 months, we can have one other prime 10 decide subsequent 12 months and fear about it then.’”
Vote distribution: Fashanu 2, Latham 1, Alt 1, Nabers 1, Verse 1
4 of the six execs despatched an offensive lineman to the Titans.
“They haven’t changed Taylor Lewan, they usually want to do this,” one of many execs stated. “The man they took final 12 months (Skoronski) was actually a guard. They want a left sort out.”
The lone exec sending a defensive participant to the Titans did so primarily based on what he is aware of about Tennessee’s GM, Ran Carthon.
“I feel they go along with the most effective go rusher,” this exec stated. “Ran would in all probability depend on his 49er days, in all probability take Verse. I’ve not personally studied Verse and Turner sufficient to have a powerful opinion, however that’s my intestine primarily based on what I’ve seen.”
8. Atlanta Falcons: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
Vote distribution: Verse 2, Turner 2, Robinson 1, Latham 1
The execs usually thought the Falcons would handle their quarterback scenario in free company or by commerce, though one GM provided up one other risk.
“They’re the probably to commerce to 1 and get Caleb Williams, or commerce for Fields,” this GM stated.
Including younger go rush assist for a veteran protection wouldn’t be as thrilling. It could possibly be the most suitable choice.
“You possibly can’t take one other offensive ability participant, are you able to?” one of many execs stated. “I don’t see a quarterback essentially as a result of I feel they’re going to signal Russell Wilson. They may go nook, too, however I’ll give them a go rusher.”
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One other exec cautioned in opposition to ruling out a receiver, noting that the Falcons may nonetheless use assist on the place. However he thought protection was extra possible.
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Vote distribution: Odunze 3, Nabers 1, Harrison 1, Byron Murphy II 1
Odunze was the highest-rated receiver obtainable on this situation and an easy decide for a group that focused its franchise quarterback on the prime of the draft. The Bears additionally may discover a defensive participant for his or her defensive-minded coach, Matt Eberflus, underneath the pondering that Williams would unlock extra from their receivers, led by DJ Moore.
“To pair Caleb with a top-tier receiver, each of them younger, each with numerous time, yeah, it could be actually onerous not to do this,” one exec stated.
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Vote distribution: Bowers 2, Nabers 1, Odunze 1, Fashanu 1, Latham 1
Not one of the execs thought deciding on a decent finish on this slot can be a sound transfer.
“If you end up selecting within the prime 10 and also you want offensive line assist and you are taking a decent finish, that’s malpractice,” the exec sending Fashanu to the Jets stated. “You possibly can’t try this. That’s simply ridiculous.”
One other exec stated the Jets wanted to pick a sort out on this slot, or commerce again and choose one. However he didn’t essentially assume the Jets would try this.
“It’s onerous within the prime 10 to not take a building-block place, however the Jets are in a novel spot as a result of they should win this 12 months or they don’t have jobs,” this exec stated. “You’re getting weapons for Aaron Rodgers and he’s going to scheme it for you. They’ve swung and missed on so many offensive linemen. I might assume they go offensive line in free company.”
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(Prime pictures of, Drake Maye, left, and Jayden Daniels: Grant Halverson, Jonathan Bachman / Getty Photos)
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