You could have watched Manchester United attain their second FA Cup closing in as many seasons by the leather-based of Haji Wright’s left boot and regarded it a lucky escape that their collapse from 3-0 up in opposition to Championship opposition didn’t deserve.
Erik ten Hag didn’t assume United bought fortunate, although. If something, he was at his most impassioned in his post-match press convention when discussing his aspect’s misfortune, particularly for Coventry Metropolis’s stoppage-time penalty, arguing it was an “completely loopy” choice to award a handball in opposition to Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
Ten Hag took a lot the identical line of argument earlier than United’s final Premier League outing in opposition to Bournemouth. Whereas accepting that “like a minister” he’ll bear final duty for outcomes, he couldn’t assist however bemoan his aspect’s unhealthy luck over the previous eight months.
“It’s large. Quite a bit went in opposition to us this season,” he stated. And although United’s misfortune isn’t restricted to refereeing calls in Ten Hag’s thoughts, that was the place he skilled his focus.
“You see all of the penalties we conceded final week (in opposition to Chelsea and Liverpool) might even have been getting into one other manner. You assume over the course of a season generally you’ll get one, generally you’ll concede one. This season it seems like we solely concede.”
United have been awarded 5 penalties this season and have conceded 11, with 4 given away within the opening 4 video games of the Champions League group stage. Whereas most of these in Europe weren’t particularly contentious, lots of the six conceded within the Premier League have sparked debate.
Some have been comfortable — Rasmus Hojlund and Casemiro’s concessions in opposition to Manchester Metropolis and Wolverhampton Wanderers specifically — and others extra debatable. None, it must be famous, have resulted within the officers accountable being stood down for the next spherical of fixtures, as occurred after Wolves have been denied a penalty at Outdated Trafford on the opening weekend of the season.
All these selections, nonetheless, are a matter of opinion. Outdoors of offside, most refereeing calls are subjective by nature and, because the period of VAR has taught us, there are completely different definitions of what constitutes a transparent and apparent mistake.
Ten Hag has extra substantive grounds for criticism on arguably the largest single motive for United’s struggles: participant accidents and enforced absences. The revolving door of United’s therapy room has seen all however 4 senior squad members — Bruno Fernandes, Andre Onana, Diogo Dalot and Alejandro Garnacho — cross via it in some unspecified time in the future this yr.
The two-2 draw at Bournemouth was the primary time United have named an unchanged line-up for the reason that opening two video games of a season ravaged by harm. In line with knowledge from transfermarkt, United’s squad have collectively spent 1,710 days sidelined for the reason that begin of the season.
Ten Hag stated final week he has not been capable of choose his “favorite” line-up for the reason that 2-1 victory over Manchester Metropolis at Outdated Trafford in January of final yr. Simply as United’s accidents have appeared to abate, new issues have cropped up.
Contemporary issues for Willy Kambwala, Mason Mount and Sofyan Amrabat meant United’s absentee record swelled into double figures once more forward of the semi-final, whereas Marcus Rashford and Scott McTominay each gave the impression to be carrying points when substituted at Wembley.
Marcus Rashford walks off after being injured at Wembley (Glyn Kirk/AFP by way of Getty Pictures)
The absence of both of his first-choice left-backs for almost all of the season has, Ten Hag feels, had a fabric impact on United’s skill to play the way in which he needs. Lisandro Martinez’s unavailability has disadvantaged him of a participant who had a transformative impact throughout his first yr in Manchester.
However is all of it all the way down to luck or might sure issues be achieved in another way? United have set to work restructuring the medical division for the reason that appointment of head of sports activities drugs Gary O’Driscoll. Sources, who requested to stay nameless to guard their relationships, consider there have been noticeable enhancements for the reason that former Arsenal membership physician’s arrival and that restructuring continues apace.
Ten Hag’s coaching strategies have additionally come underneath scrutiny and may be intense, notably for these not concerned in matches, who’re put via rigorous periods the day after video games to keep up a constant stage of bodily load throughout the squad. The quick, direct and infrequently chaotic model of play that has been adopted this season additionally needs to be thought-about as a part of that equation.
And when wanting on the performances that model of play has produced on a statistical stage, United have arguably had their fair proportion of fine fortune to steadiness out the unhealthy.
All people is aware of by now that United face plenty of pictures on aim — 574 in whole within the Premier League this season. No top-flight staff has confronted as many on a per-game foundation, however within the context of current historical past, that determine solely turns into all of the extra outstanding.
Since 2016-17, eight of the 15 top-flight sides to have confronted extra pictures than United have been relegated. None have completed increased than fifteenth. On the present price, United will surpass all of these 15 sides and but even within the absolute worst-case situation, they can’t end any decrease than 14th.
Ten Hag has defended United’s obvious willingness to surrender pictures by arguing they’re predominantly low-quality possibilities and he has some extent. The common shot United have confronted within the league this season has had a ten per cent probability of leading to a aim.
Andre Onana has been busy this season (Clive Brunskill/Getty Pictures)
Brentford and Newcastle have the worst document in that regard, with the typical shot having a 13 per cent probability of being scored. The distinction between a 13 per cent and 10 per cent probability is small however vital. A marginal acquire, if you happen to like.
However if you happen to concede at the least 20 pictures a sport, as United have usually been doing of late, and one in each 10 goes in, you’ll want to attain three to win. The eighth-worst assault within the league, with solely 47 objectives in 32 league video games, can’t depend on that.
United’s 47 objectives is stage with Luton City and in step with anticipated knowledge, too. Defensively, Ten Hag’s aspect have conceded 48 objectives — one of many Premier League’s higher data — however from an anticipated whole of 59.8.
Take one away from the opposite and United’s anticipated aim distinction is -12.2, the fifth-worst within the league. All of the sudden, that precise aim distinction of -1 doesn’t look so unhealthy in any case.
However nothing can change perceptions and narratives round a aspect like a beneficial run of fixtures, within the quick time period at the least, and United now face the Premier League’s backside two at Outdated Trafford within the area of 4 days.
It mustn’t want saying, however United are a greater aspect than each Sheffield United and Burnley by any complete measure. They need to not must get fortunate to show it.
(High picture: Glyn Kirk/AFP by way of Getty Pictures)