BOSTON — The decision got here final summer time.
It was from the brand new common supervisor of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Brad Treliving, and he had a message for Mitch Marner.
“He made it fairly clear that he wished to maintain our core collectively,” Marner informed The Athletic final fall. “He trusted our core.”
What now for the Leafs and that core after yet one more early playoff exit?
“It’s an empty feeling proper now,” William Nylander mentioned in what’s turn out to be an all too acquainted setting for the Leafs, an empty dressing room after a painful playoff loss.
Nylander’s stick, emblazoned with “Willy Kinds,” was nonetheless standing in opposition to a wall in a nook. It wasn’t lengthy after Sport 7, and one other first-round exit. The temper was dour.
“Look, I don’t assume there’s a problem with the core,” Nylander mentioned. “I believe we have been f—— proper there all collection battling — battling laborious. We acquired it to Sport 7 OT. It’s a s—– feeling.”
Auston Matthews known as this specific Leafs crew the tightest he’s ever been part of. “I really feel like we are saying that yearly, nevertheless it really was an unbelievable group, extremely tight,” he mentioned.
“We’re proper there,” John Tavares mentioned. “It’s a really small distinction.”
The outcomes are what they’re although. The Leafs haven’t gotten shut in any respect. Working it again with this core — Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, and Morgan Rielly — has not labored.
The Leafs ran it again after they have been embarrassed by an inferior Columbus Blue Jackets crew in 2020. They ran it again after they allowed a 3-1 collection result in soften away in opposition to the Montreal Canadiens, one other inferior opponent, in 2021. The Leafs ran it again but once more after they misplaced in seven video games to the Tampa Bay Lightning a yr after that. And simply when it appeared like they might pivot final spring after dropping a five-game second-round collection to the Florida Panthers, crew president Brendan Shanahan fired then-GM Kyle Dubas and insisted once more — with Treliving shifting into the GM’s chair — that the core was staying put.
“Simply being completely different doesn’t resolve one thing,” Shanahan mentioned when he introduced Dubas’ firing.
And but, clearly, the established order didn’t resolve something both. If something, simply the alternative: The Leafs have been dispatched once more within the first spherical. Clawing again from a 3-1 collection deficit to pressure Sport 7 doesn’t change the truth that operating it again yet another time backfired.
Is that this — lastly — the time the Leafs pivot in a serious manner? And in that case, who will get to make that decision? And what precisely does it imply?
The query of operating it again has to incorporate the member of the core — administration division — that by no means will get talked about: Shanahan.
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Nobody is extra chargeable for the Leafs operating again the identical prime finish of the roster for therefore lengthy with out playoff outcomes than him. If there was anybody who believed within the energy of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, and Rielly to get it performed, it was him.
He believed over and time and again regardless of the outcomes.
After 10 seasons as crew president, Shanahan’s Leafs have gained one playoff spherical, which places them in the identical bracket as lots of the worst groups within the league during the last decade.
It’s actually form of gorgeous.
Playoff wins for the reason that 2014-15 season
The Leafs have been a prime crew within the common season, and Shanahan deserves credit score for that, however the aim isn’t to win the common season. It’s to win within the playoffs and sticking with the identical core group hasn’t yielded something near a Stanley Cup.
Shedding in seven video games within the first spherical isn’t “proper there” as Tavares instructed.
Shanahan met with the brand new president of MLSE, Keith Pelley, earlier this week. Pelley needs to be asking why it’s that Shanahan caught with this specific group for therefore lengthy when the outcomes weren’t there when it mattered and, crucially, what he plans to do about it now after one other defeat.
Ought to he even get that chance after a decade’s price of possibilities?
Shanahan’s considering went one thing like this: If the Leafs traded considered one of their nice gamers away each time they’d a playoff disappointment, finally they is likely to be left with no nice gamers.
He believed that given sufficient time, sufficient scars, and sufficient cracks within the postseason, the celebrities would finally come by way of and the crew can be rewarded with the franchise’s first Stanley Cup since 1967.
The issue: The celebs weren’t starry sufficient. Not when it mattered. And in a top-heavy system, just like the one the Leafs have been working with, the celebrities need to be stars when it issues. They didn’t get there sufficient, together with this spring in opposition to Boston.
Shanahan appreciated to say that sticking to the plan was the laborious half in Toronto.
Sticking to the plan for this lengthy although has confirmed naive. Many times, it ignored the proof, which acknowledged, emphatically, that whereas the gamers in query have been gifted — arguably the most gifted the franchise had ever seen — for no matter motive the combo didn’t work when the video games mattered most.
One thing was lacking. And the Leafs may have tried to deal with it sooner or later alongside the best way. Possibly it wouldn’t have been a sledgehammer to the core, however a scalpel. One piece carved out, one other completely different type of piece slotted in.
Now, one thing will virtually definitely change, at the very least a yr too late.
The extenuating circumstances of this collection — Nylander’s absence for Video games 1-3 resulting from migraines, an sickness and damage that derailed Matthews and knocked him out for Video games 5 and 6 — gained’t matter. They are going to be as misplaced to historical past as Tavares lacking virtually the whole thing of that Montreal collection to damage or Sergei Bobrovsky changing into a superhero once more abruptly final spring.
The Pittsburgh Penguins gained a Stanley Cup with out Kris Letang in 2017. Steven Stamkos performed one playoff recreation for the Tampa Bay Lightning throughout their Stanley Cup run in 2020. The groups that win discover a manner.
The Leafs had a possibility to pivot in no matter path they appreciated final offseason earlier than no-movement clauses kicked in on the contracts of Marner, Nylander, and Matthews.
The date for that was July 1.
Had Dubas remained as GM, and possibly even elevated his management of the franchise, the Leafs could have lastly shook up their core by shifting a kind of gamers (Marner or Nylander) out. As a substitute, every thing that mattered, together with head coach Sheldon Keefe, stayed the identical.
Now a choice concerning the core feels apparent.
Final summer time, the Leafs signed Matthews to a four-year extension that can quickly make him the highest-paid participant within the league. Nylander acquired a full eight-year extension in January. Each gamers have full no-movement clauses.
So does Tavares.
The captain of the Leafs can be getting into the final yr of the seven-year contract he signed again in 2018. Born and raised in Toronto, and now with a rising younger household, Tavares expressed no real interest in leaving final summer time when the prospect was raised by media.
Rielly likewise has a no-movement clause on a contract that also has one other six seasons left on it.
Which leaves Marner, who’s eligible to signal an extension on July 1.
He, too, holds a no-movement clause, which implies he solely goes elsewhere if he needs to. Which implies, at greatest, a restricted pool of groups the Leafs can transfer him to — and thus, a restricted pool of property they’ll fetch in return.
Consider it this fashion: What number of groups on the market can be focused on a) taking up Marner’s $10.9 million cap hit for subsequent season, b) need to pay him much more than that on an extension c) have engaging property they might be prepared to commerce and property that may be of curiosity to the Leafs?
All of which is to say, the Leafs boxed themselves in by ready so long as they did. It’s going to be laborious to make a superb commerce involving Marner, if that’s the route they take.
Does the Maple Leafs’ future embrace Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews collectively? (Nick Turchiaro / USA At this time)
If not after the Montreal collection, it felt like time for Marner after final season. He mentioned all the precise issues about eager to be a Leaf, to remain a Leaf, however all through this previous season, he appeared quite a bit like somebody who wasn’t having fun with all that comes with being a Leaf — the strain, the scrutiny, the criticism, the relentless demand for extra.
Marner’s poor begin to the season was notable for the way joyless he appeared, how devoid of enthusiasm and power.
He completed with three factors in seven video games in opposition to the Bruins. He wasn’t the offensive difference-maker the Leafs wanted him to be, particularly early within the collection when Nylander was absent.
He is likely to be simply as prepared for a change because the Leafs are. He was ready for the chance final summer time.
Absent extension talks, and the opportunity of a long-term future in Toronto, he is likely to be satisfied to just accept a commerce elsewhere.
Then the query turns into: What ought to the Leafs look to fetch in return? It’s tempting to say a defenceman, and which may not be the incorrect reply if it’s the precise defenceman. But it surely’s not as if this franchise is stocked with high-end forwards past Matthews and Nylander.
Can the entrance workplace, whoever’s operating it, thread the needle and purchase a higher-end ahead and a defenceman? And what sort of ahead anyway? If the purpose is to attempt to change the “combine” does it need to be a ahead of a special ability set than Marner? Somebody more durable and heavier to play in opposition to?
Or, do the Leafs simply hunt down the absolute best participant, interval, presumably incomes lower than Marner, and use the remaining cap house elsewhere?
Are draft picks a part of the package deal? Do the Leafs must make picks a part of the package deal given their restricted provide?
And once more, which crew has what the Leafs need, meets Marner’s wishes if he needs to go away in any respect, and needs to pay him?
If they’re the 2 key gamers nonetheless operating the present, can Shanahan and Treliving get this proper? Their first season collectively as president and GM didn’t go nice. They did not adequately handle wants final summer time after which let the commerce deadline come and go with none significant reinforcements, which led to yet one more first-round loss.
Can they execute a Marner commerce in a manner that makes the Leafs higher, or at worst, completely different?
As Treliving himself mentioned final summer time when the prospect of shifting core gamers got here up at his introductory press convention, “You may throw a physique underneath the tarmac and it’d look good for a headline, however are you getting any higher? On the finish of the day, it’s about getting higher. And simply being completely different doesn’t essentially make you higher.”
Not anymore. The Leafs must be completely different and get higher on the identical time. Working it again — once more — isn’t an choice.
(Prime picture of John Tavares, Tyler Bertuzzi and Morgan Rielly: Michael Dwyer / The Related Press)