The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have gained back-to-back Tremendous Bowls, so the whole NFL might be trying to knock them off their perch atop the league. What’s stunning, although, is that regardless of successful two titles in a row, my NFL Projection Mannequin doesn’t see the Chiefs because the favorites to win all of it this yr. That’s extra a testomony to the AFC, which is deep with gifted groups, making the Chiefs’ march to a different convention crown extraordinarily troublesome.
Then once more, the highway gained’t be simple for any crew. If it had been, we wouldn’t be watching.
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With that in thoughts, and the beginning of the season lower than per week away, let’s look at the ten groups most certainly to win the Tremendous Bowl and supply the explanation why they may or gained’t be the final crew standing in February.
NFL Projection Mannequin: Tremendous Bowl
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
The 49ers nonetheless have arguably the very best roster within the NFL, with my projection mannequin suggesting they’ve the very best offense and fourth-best protection within the league. Quarterback Brock Purdy is 17-4 as a starter in his younger profession, and coach Kyle Shanahan is likely one of the finest offensive minds in soccer. When you’ve gotten top-five items on each side of the ball and also you’re coming off a second NFC title in three years, it’s not arduous to argue for why you’ll win it.
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Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
Contract chaos. Negotiations with star receiver Brandon Aiyuk and All-Professional left sort out Trent Williams spill into the season, and with out these two practising for almost all of the summer time, the offense sputters out of the gate and struggles to discover a rhythm.
And if the 49ers finally deal Aiyuk, that might be an enormous blow to the offense regardless of their funding within the place within the draft. The 49ers make use of a rookie contract quarterback, so that they have loads of expertise past Aiyuk and Williams, however with out these two pushing the unit to full energy, it’s arduous to ascertain San Francisco reaching one other Tremendous Bowl.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (11.8%)
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
You recognize the explanations. It’s arduous to not sound like a damaged file when speaking about this period of the Chiefs, however right here goes: They’ve a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, an all-time nice coach in Andy Reid, among the best assistant coaches in current reminiscence in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and a championship-caliber roster. If Mahomes is wholesome and below middle, it’s arduous to see them as an underdog in opposition to anybody.
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Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
No crew within the Tremendous Bowl period has ever three-peated. It’s extremely troublesome to win the Tremendous Bowl, and regardless of Mahomes and Co. making it look really easy, the AFC actually is stacked this yr. One factor I’m apprehensive about is that the Chiefs type of sleepwalked by the common season final yr. In the event that they need to go on the highway within the playoffs once more, perhaps the protection takes a step again (changing star CB L’Jarius Sneed gained’t be simple) and so they journey up in a tricky setting like Baltimore or Buffalo.
Can coach Dan Campbell lead the Detroit Lions to the franchise’s first Tremendous Bowl title? (Gregory Shamus / Getty Photographs)
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection turns into respectable, particularly within the secondary. Final yr, the Lions ranked twenty fourth in EPA/play and twenty ninth in opposition to the go, based on TruMedia. They need to don’t have any drawback on offense — they’re ranked third by my mannequin — but when they’re going to symbolize the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl, the protection must take strides. And since their first two picks within the NFL Draft had been each spent on cornerbacks (first-rounder Terrion Arnold and second-rounder Ennis Rakestraw Jr.), I’d say common supervisor Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell agree.
Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
The offense turns into stale below Jared Goff, similar to it did in Los Angeles. In Yr 3 with the Rams, Goff reached the Tremendous Bowl along with his EPA/dropback and success fee metrics hitting a peak. In Yr 4, his numbers dropped off, and the Rams went from 13 wins to 9. If Goff follows the same trajectory in his fourth yr in Detroit, with an enhancing division, the Lions may fall wanting expectations.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
Coordinator upgrades on each side of the ball enable the Eagles to achieve their full potential. The Eagles had been a large number final yr, and getting the coordinator hires proper may offset dropping Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox to retirement. Vic Fangio ought to be an enormous improve to a protection that misplaced its approach final yr. And the addition of an explosive playmaker in Saquon Barkley ought to enable new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take a few of the burden off Jalen Hurts as a runner, which is able to assist maintain the quarterback wholesome for the whole season en path to the Tremendous Bowl.
Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection simply doesn’t fairly put it collectively. The Eagles’ first three picks in April’s draft had been all spent on the defensive aspect of the ball, and the primary two — defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean — might be anticipated to contribute within the secondary. That’s quite a lot of strain to placed on a pair of inexperienced gamers. My mannequin has the Eagles protection projected to be a league-average unit because it stands proper now, and if the younger gamers within the secondary don’t present up, Philadelphia gained’t final lengthy in January.
Baltimore Ravens (6.3%)
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection stays among the best within the NFL regardless of dropping defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seattle Seahawks. If Zach Orr can step in and maintain issues at the usual they had been at below Macdonald, this is likely one of the finest groups in soccer. Orr has been with the Ravens as a participant and coach for all however one yr of his profession, so he could have all of the information wanted to maintain the ship on the right track. Additionally value mentioning: Two-time MVP QB Lamar Jackson and working again Derrick Henry may very well be essentially the most harmful backfield duo because the flip of the century, and that finally ends up being an enormous cause for his or her success.
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Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
Losses on the offensive line are an excessive amount of to beat, and the Ravens discover themselves struggling to fend off contenders in a deep AFC. Jackson can erase quite a lot of deficiencies, however changing three offensive linemen and counting on Ronnie Stanley’s well being turns into a roster-building mistake even Jackson can’t overcome. The Ravens had one of many higher offensive traces within the league final yr, however no offense can attain its targets if it’s struggling within the trenches. If this line fails to return collectively, so will the Ravens.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of the protection improves with out Dan Quinn. Although issues acquired stale with Mike Zimmer as a head coach in Minnesota, I nonetheless assume he is likely one of the higher defensive minds in soccer. Regardless of rostering among the best go rushers within the league in Micah Parsons, the Cowboys protection at all times appeared to return up brief in opposition to nice offenses throughout Quinn’s tenure — particularly in opposition to these working the Shanahan/Sean McVay schemes. If Zimmer will get a bit extra out of this gifted unit, the Cowboys offense has sufficient firepower to take them to their first Tremendous Bowl since 1994.
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Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of Dak Prescott can’t overcome unfavorable performs in large video games. Pay attention, Prescott is an effective quarterback and I believe he’s one in all few able to main an NFL crew to a hoop. However he tends to throw interceptions and take sacks at the next fee than the league’s elite when it issues. Final yr (playoffs included), Prescott ranked thirteenth in sacks plus INT fee at 7.4 p.c. Towards 2023 playoff groups (eight video games), he ranked twenty sixth at 10.3 p.c. If Prescott and the Cowboys offense can’t keep away from the catastrophe performs within the large video games, they may endure yet one more disappointing finish to their season.
Buffalo Payments (5.6%)
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of Josh Allen is the second-best quarterback within the NFL and lifts a Payments offense that now not has star huge receiver Stefon Diggs. The Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill and gained back-to-back Tremendous Bowls, and whereas I don’t assume Allen is Mahomes, he’s the following closest factor. The Payments look to be following the Chiefs’ blueprint of preserving the roster wholesome for the long run fairly than spending an excessive amount of on one place (Diggs/Hill). If Allen can rise to the event like Mahomes has, there isn’t a cause the Payments can’t end on prime in February.
Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection isn’t deep sufficient to hold its weight. Linebacker Matt Milano, an important member of the Payments protection, goes to overlook prolonged time recovering from a torn biceps harm he suffered earlier this month. With Milano within the lineup, my projections have the Payments as a fringe top-10 protection. With out him, they appear extra like a median unit, because the mannequin is just not overly keen on the remaining again seven. With out depth in that space, I’m afraid that hill might be too steep to climb for Buffalo.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
Quarterback Joe Burrow performs a full season. Burrow has been one of many league’s finest quarterbacks when wholesome, however he’s struggled to remain on the sphere. The offense has the weapons in place to be among the best items within the league, and if Burrow is on the market, it’s an excellent guess that unit might be close to the highest 5. Issue within the fourth-place schedule the Bengals will play this season, and there’s an easier-than-expected path by the stacked AFC. The truth is, Burrow has an opportunity to guide the Bengals to a first-round bye.
Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
The protection isn’t championship-caliber. The Bengals ranked twenty fifth in EPA/play on protection final yr, so it’s going to take an terrible lot to get again into the highest 10. My mannequin has them projected to be a median unit getting into the season, and that’s doubtless not adequate contemplating the place the offense is. Burrow is a good quarterback, however I don’t assume he’s proven the flexibility to hold a median protection to a Tremendous Bowl.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of coach Matt LaFleur, quarterback Jordan Love and this offense dismantled the Cowboys within the playoffs final yr and took the 49ers to the wire within the divisional spherical. And that was no fluke. One other offseason for Love and the ceiling for the Packers on that aspect of the ball is as excessive as anybody’s within the league. If they arrive near reaching that ceiling, they’ve a fantastic shot to go all the best way.
Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of whereas the offense was a top-five unit by EPA/play within the second half of final season, the protection ranked within the backside 10, and the particular groups was the worst unit in soccer throughout the identical interval. Adjustments have been made at defensive coordinator — Jeff Hafley changed Joe Barry — and the expertise is there, however can all of it come collectively for Inexperienced Bay? It’s a tricky factor to guess on. Even when the protection is common, mixed with horrible particular groups play, that’s simply an excessive amount of burden for the offense to hold.
Why they’ll win the Tremendous Bowl
The simple reply right here is that Aaron Rodgers performs like an MVP, however I believe the extra obtrusive concern is the offensive line, which allowed strain on the sixth-highest fee final yr. The Jets addressed this by upgrading the unit in free company (Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson) and the draft (Olu Fashanu). Although Fashanu hasn’t performed an NFL snap but, he’ll function essential depth behind the oft-injured Smith.
If the Jets maintain Rodgers upright, all he must do is be an above-average quarterback, and the Jets could make a run with their elite protection.
Why they gained’t win the Tremendous Bowl
As a result of having an elite protection yr over yr is hard. The New England Patriots are the one crew to rank within the prime 5 of EPA/play on protection in every of the previous three seasons. And you may argue the quarterback play within the AFC East throughout the stretch has inflated the Patriots’ rating. The Jets protection enters the season within the prime three, per my mannequin. If the unit had been to slip down, even to seventh finest, that might too large of a hill to climb for an offense that has uncertainties.
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(Picture illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic;
images: Lauren Leigh Bacho, Ryan Kang and Ric Tapia: Getty Photographs)