Does a rough second half matter in October? Some World Series hopefuls might want to look away

Who doesn’t love a superb what-if query, so let’s ask this one:

What if this baseball season had began in the course of July as an alternative of the final week of March? Have you ever thought a lot about how otherwise we’d be viewing practically each contender within the sport?

In fact you haven’t. However that’s what we’re right here for. So check out the second-half data of all of the groups that might make the postseason if the match began at the moment, with the Braves and Mets each included since they’re tied for the ultimate NL wild-card spot. First, let’s take a look at …

The Good

Padres: 30-13
Diamondbacks: 30-14
Dodgers: 28-15
Brewers: 26-17
Mets: 27-18
Astros: 25-19
Royals: 24-20

We will speak about these groups another time. However now let’s hone in on the remainder of this group. See what jumps out at you as you peruse …

The Not So Good

Twins: 22-23
Guardians: 22-23
Phillies: 22-22
Orioles: 23-22
Yankees: 22-20
Braves: 23-22

You know which two groups jumped out at me? The Phillies and Guardians. Aren’t they the final word reminder {that a} baseball season can really feel as lengthy and winding because the Appalachian Path?

For greater than three months this season, the Phillies and Guardians owned the 2 finest data within the sport. Then baseball occurred.

On July 1, they have been each on 100-win paces. Now, as that standings chart illustrates so vividly, they’ve spent the previous two months taking part in extra like an 80-win group than a 100-win group. Humorous how that occurs. The query is, what does it imply for his or her win-the-World-Collection aspirations?

They’re not the primary groups in historical past to find how lengthy a baseball season actually is. However that isn’t the story right here.

The story is: A tough second half, for groups like this, typically means greater than you’d most likely guess it means. I’ve completed the mathematics so that you don’t should.

The wild-card period is 30 seasons outdated now. You’d suppose the wild-card security web would have given many groups the rope to slog by way of a .500-ish second half — or worse — and nonetheless be able to rock in October. But when that’s what you’d suppose, suppose once more. Try what’s really occurred, simply within the theoretically extra forgiving wild-card period (1995-present).

Shedding second-half data, nonetheless made it to the World Collection

2023 Diamondbacks: 32-39
2006 Cardinals: 35-39
2006 Tigers: 36-38

Worst second-half data, gained the World Collection

2006 Cardinals: 35-39
1996 Yankees: 40-37
2014 Giants: 35-31

(Supply: Baseball Reference / Stathead)

Adam Wainwright celebrates after the Cardinals defeated the Tigers in Sport 5 to win the 2006 World Collection.  (David E. Klutho / Sports activities Illustrated through Getty Pictures)

Sure, you learn that proper. Within the wild-card period, just one group has survived a dropping report after the All-Star break and nonetheless gained the World Collection. …

And solely three groups have performed .500 or worse and even lived to play in a World Collection — the place two of them (the 2006 Cardinals and Tigers) really matched up with one another. …

However even when we elevate the bar barely, each World Collection winner in these final three a long time has been not less than 5 video games over .500 within the second half — apart from the three groups above.

So what does that inform us about baseball? Let’s ask the supervisor of the membership that had the worst second half of any of the groups on these lists — Torey Lovullo of the 2023 Diamondbacks.

“It’s an emotional curler coaster,” Lovullo advised me and Doug Glanville on the most recent episode of The Windup’s Starkville podcast. “This sport is loopy. And it’ll put on you down.”

So how does any group spin by way of that curler coaster and survive with sufficient equilibrium to hit the reset button in October?

“We speak about consistency,” Lovullo stated. “We simply need to have guys that perceive the place they’re at and never get too excessive or not get too low. However ultimately, we’re going to search out our method. It’s the insanity of a baseball season, and it does occur. And when you let it spiral, it is going to take you into a spot that’s very darkish. However when you imagine that you simply’re going to discover a method out of it, (you may).”

Extra on the Diamondbacks momentarily. However first, let’s look extra intently on the Phillies and Guardians — and the way fearful they need to be about their very own second-half points.

The Phillies

The Phillies have been using excessive after they swept the Dodgers in July. Then issues went sideways. (Invoice Streicher / USA Immediately)

THEIR GREATEST HITS — On July 9-10-11, the Phillies bulldozed Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers in a three-game sequence in Philadelphia. So 93 video games into their season, the Phillies have been 61-32. They have been on a 106-win tempo. They have been 6 1/2 video games up on L.A. within the race for the Nationwide League’s No. 1 seed. That they had the very best pitching employees within the league and the deepest offense within the league. What may probably go unsuitable? Ha.

HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? So naturally, over the Phillies’ subsequent 35 video games, they went 13-22. Just one group had a worse report over that six-week stretch. And it was — who else? — the White Sox. Simply three groups had a worse ERA in that span. And the Phillies’ once-rampaging offense scored practically 80 fewer runs in that stretch than Torey Lovullo’s Diamondbacks. So …

HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? There was one factor Dave Dombrowski knew: Regardless of the heck was occurring together with his group, these 35 video games have been not telling him this group wasn’t proficient sufficient.

“We had eight All-Stars, proper?” the Phillies’ president of baseball operations stated. “In order that tells you you’re a really proficient group. So that you don’t go from a group that has numerous expertise to not having any expertise.”

However Dombrowski did see a number of issues that involved him. One was the pitching — beginning with a banged-up rotation whose points wound up overtaxing the Phillies’ beforehand dominant bullpen.

However Dombrowski additionally was puzzled by the stunning decline of the offense after a persistently relentless first half. Subsequent factor he knew, that very same lineup spent a month re-enacting NLCS Video games 6 and seven towards the Diamondbacks.

Most of all, although, Dombrowski questioned if possibly they’d all gotten too snug after such a dominant first half. The Phillies had such an enormous lead by the center of June, they appeared to begin prioritizing what they might do to maintain their core wholesome for October. So Dombrowski admits he has requested himself if that probably despatched the unsuitable message.

“I don’t know,” he stated. “Perhaps we set the tempo someplace. Perhaps we began taking a look at the long run moderately than the quick time period. However I’m undecided about that.”

He simply knew there was time to repair what felt damaged. And over the past couple of weeks, the Phillies appear to have completed that, roaring by way of a 9-2 streak towards the Royals, Astros, Braves, Blue Jays and Marlins. So what modified? We’ll get again to that momentarily. However first …

The Guardians

After a win over the White Sox on July 4, the high-flying Guardians have been one of many worst groups within the AL over the following 48 video games. (David Richard / USA Immediately)

THEIR GREATEST HITS — On the Fourth of July, the Guardians dusted off the White Sox to lift their report to 54-31. They led the AL Central by six video games (after as soon as main by as many as 9 in late June). That they had the very best report within the American League, the fewest runs allowed within the league and 80 extra runs scored than they’d on the identical stage final season. In order that they have been all set for a run at 100 wins, proper? Oops.

HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? The marathon is at all times longer than it appears. Over the following 48 video games, the Guardians went 21-27. Solely two groups within the AL — the Angels and White Sox — had worse data in that stretch. The Guardians’ beginning pitching imploded (10-24, 4.87 ERA). And going by their 83 wRC+, solely two lineups in baseball have been much less productive.

By the top of play on Aug. 27, after a 3rd straight loss at house to Kansas Metropolis, the Guardians’ nine-game pad had, shockingly, disappeared. The Royals had tied them within the standings. And a fantastic Cleveland baseball summer time didn’t appear so balmy anymore. So …

HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? Was it actually as bleak as all these messy factoids above made it appear? Not within the eyes of the Guardians’ unflappable president of baseball ops, Chris Antonetti.

“We had a very powerful stretch of video games after the All-Star break,” Antonetti stated, “with seven of our 9 opponents in playoff place on the time we performed them.

“Final I appeared,” he went on, “I believe we have now the second-most wins within the AL towards groups with higher than a .500 report. So we’ve held our personal there.”

However does that report alone inform the total story of the Guardians? I’m not so certain it does.

Early within the season, balls have been crusing over the fence. Steven Kwan appeared like he would possibly make a cost at .400. And this appeared like a totally completely different offense than the group that completed twenty seventh in MLB in runs scored final yr — and lifeless final in homers.

However what did the following seven weeks appear to be, after the White Sox left city on July 4? Not fairly so picturesque!

But in addition, there have been …

 (*Eleventh-best in MLB; **Ninth-lowest in MLB)

Just like the Phillies, the Guardians appear to have rebounded within the final week or so. They’ve gained 5 of their final seven. They’ve stretched their lead within the Central again to 4 video games. They usually averaged practically seven runs per sport within the 5 wins. So when Antonetti seems at these final two months, he sees simply the conventional “ebbs and flows to the common season.”

He sees a rotation that appears a lot improved after the addition of Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd. He sees an offense whose downturn stemmed largely from matchups with a bunch of fantastic staffs. So right here was his big-picture learn:

“Perhaps I’m not fascinated by it deeply sufficient,” he stated. “However I’m undecided there’s an excessive amount of I’d make of it. There’s not numerous predictability to which groups win and advance as soon as the postseason begins.”

Then he requested: “Didn’t Texas and Arizona (the 2 World Collection groups in 2023) wrestle in August final yr earlier than surging in September?”

Glorious query! The Rangers misplaced 16 of 20 in August and September, however then gained 17 of their subsequent 21 video games. And the Diamondbacks rocked by way of a wilder trip to the World Collection than any group ever.

On July 1, they have been 16 video games over .500 (50-34). However then … repeat after me … baseball occurred. The Diamondbacks gained solely seven of their subsequent 32, propelling them from 16 video games over .500 to 2 video games underneath, with 46 left to play. Whereupon they boomeranged once more, going 27-15 earlier than getting swept of their last sequence of the season in Houston.

It added as much as a sub-.500 second half — however with a season-saving rebound in September. And if that looks like a blueprint for all of the groups on our Not So Good record, it’s as a result of it’s.

For each a type of groups, September affords the chance to rediscover their first-half mojo. And the Diamondbacks leaned into that chance, then used the reminiscence of that rebound once more this season to gasoline their torrid restoration from a 25-32 begin.

“I believe our guys have a really excessive baseball IQ … and this innate perception,” Lovullo stated. “We used to hope we have been going to win video games. We have been so involved about what’s occurring throughout the sphere, within the different dugout. (However now) we imagine in a lot of what’s occurring in our house that we all know we’re going to discover a option to get one thing completed each single night time.”

“In the event you let it spiral, it is going to take you into a spot that’s very darkish. However when you imagine that you simply’re going to discover a method out of it, (you may),” stated Torey Lovullo, who guided the 2023 D-Backs to an unlikely World Collection look. (Joe Camporeale / USA Immediately)

So what have we realized from these rides on the baseball curler coaster? It’s as fundamental as a 3-and-2 fastball:

Wake me up earlier than September ends

If all of this feels acquainted to Dave Dombrowski, it’s as a result of he has seen this film earlier than. Heck, he lived this film — with the 2006 Tigers.

“It’s humorous. I used to be speaking to Jim Leyland (the supervisor of that Tigers group) about 2006 only in the near past,” Dombrowski stated. “And we agreed that one of many frequent denominators was: You could have had a very good first half … to qualify for the postseason and nonetheless be under .500 within the second half.  So mainly, it normally means the expertise is there. And for some motive, you’ve fallen off. So why?”

Why? Dombrowski believes there’s no extra essential query for any group to ponder. When a group begins to slip, there may be virtually at all times multiple motive. However the hazard signal he’s at all times looking out for is when a group with an enormous lead takes its foot off the accelerator.

“Typically,” he stated, “some folks will grow to be considerably, I don’t know if that is the fitting phrase, however content material. They’ll lose somewhat little bit of that further fireplace. And though that’s not good, what you might want to do is rekindle that fireside — to search out it once more to be able to achieve success within the postseason.”

That’s precisely what occurred to that 2006 Tigers group, he believes. So “the important thing to getting again on monitor,” he stated, “is the ‘why’ — and the way do you repair it?”

In 2006, Leyland delivered a message to his troops that September: Let’s get centered. And over the previous couple of weeks, Dombrowski stated, his supervisor in Philly, Rob Thomson, has empowered the leaders in his clubhouse to sing that very same tune.

“It’s one thing they’ve talked about,” Dombrowski stated, “one thing they’ve labored on. And I believe they’ve already gotten that message throughout. I believe we’ve performed significantly better (lately). And we actually wanted to get that again in gear.”

Is the baseball marathon a sequence of ebbs and flows? It at all times is. And generally these ebbs and flows even strike in September. However as October nears, Dombrowski has lengthy understood, the very best groups realize it’s the power to play with focus and vitality each day that always separates the champs from everybody else.

So in baseball, September isn’t foliage time. It’s focus time.

“It’s simply a type of issues,” he stated, “the place you simply have to sort of get it again. Whenever you win numerous video games early, you set your self ready the place you may face up to that little lull.

“However you’re not going to win a championship,” Dombrowski stated, “when you proceed to have that lull going into the postseason.”

(High picture of Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh: Matt Krohn / Getty Pictures)