Heading into this Premier League weekend, Manchester Metropolis had been high of the desk and Arsenal had been in second place.
All of it feels extraordinarily acquainted.
In 2022-23, Arsenal misplaced house and away to Metropolis, and completed 5 factors behind them. Final season, Arsenal beat Metropolis in London however drew with them in Manchester and ended up two factors adrift of them within the ultimate standings. When the margins separating the winners and losers in title races are tiny, successful away to your rivals for the trophy is vital. However does the actual fact we’re so early into the brand new season imply one other stalemate on the Etihad Stadium right this moment (Sunday) would swimsuit Mikel Arteta’s guests?
Each side recorded goalless attracts of their Champions League openers in midweek, however Pep Guardiola’s aspect head into this recreation with an additional 24 hours of relaxation of their legs and with Erling Haaland one away from turning into the primary participant to achieve double figures for targets in his first 5 appearances of a Premier League season. Nevertheless, he’s dealing with a defence who’ve conceded simply thrice in 9 Premier League away video games throughout the calendar yr to this point.
We requested our Metropolis author (Sam Lee), one in every of our Arsenal writers (Artwork de Roche) and one in every of our information and techniques specialists (Thom Harris) to ponder some key questions forward of the fixture.
Will Arsenal’s mindset be that successful is important this time?
That will undoubtedly have been the case if that they had not gained at Tottenham Hotspur final weekend, however that outcome modifications issues ever so barely. Three factors right this moment would see Arsenal leapfrog Metropolis, however returning to north London with a draw shouldn’t be catastrophic. Whereas many assumed they settled for some extent on their final go to to Metropolis, Arsenal’s method was much like their two earlier wins over them and that north London derby win final weekend. Gabriel Jesus and Leandro Trossard squandering possibilities was the distinction. This time, they are going to look to be simply as aggressive however will have to be extra medical in these key offensive moments.
Artwork de Roche
(Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside through Getty Pictures)
I agree with Artwork — whereas it won’t really feel prefer it in the intervening time, Metropolis will drop factors someplace alongside the road, and it’s certainly advisable to give attention to staying inside touching distance somewhat than going all out for a victory right here and threat falling 5 factors behind and having to play catch-up at this early stage. A degree could be a treasured one, and if Arsenal can hold it as tight as they did in opposition to Tottenham, they might nicely get an opportunity or two to nick all three anyway.
Thom Harris
Will Metropolis have the ability to address Arsenal’s set-piece menace?
Clearly, Arsenal are robust in that division however it’s not as if Metropolis are notably weak. Of the six first-team defenders prone to be chosen, solely 5ft 6in (169cm) Rico Lewis is small for a defender. The remainder are Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji, John Stones and Josko Gvardiol. Top isn’t the one figuring out issue, in fact, and Metropolis are fairly tenacious when difficult for balls into the field, and it shouldn’t be underestimated that they know a factor or two about screening themselves; they’ve even benefited from NBA techniques through the Boston Celtics. Metropolis might be caught out from set items at instances — who doesn’t? — however as a result of they know that many groups visiting the Etihad will probably be centered on nicking a bonus from useless balls, they need to put in at the very least equal quantities of labor to cease that from taking place.
Sam Lee
Set performs are extremely situational; a lapse in focus, a misplaced particular person duel or a very good cross can undo hours of onerous work throughout the week. Nonetheless, the overall dead-ball tendencies are revealing — whereas Arsenal have been extraordinarily harmful in the case of attacking set-pieces because the begin of final season, Metropolis have been by far and away one of the best at defending them. The beneath scatter chart tells us that Guardiola’s aspect have conceded simply 1.6 targets per 100 set items, not together with penalties — that equates to a few within the final 186 they’ve confronted – one of the best defensive fee among the many 17 Premier League ever-presents in that point.
Information are there to be damaged, although, and Metropolis haven’t appeared fully infallible; Ethan Pinnock alone had three possibilities from corners on the Etihad final weekend, whereas fellow Brentford defender Nathan Collins was solely denied by an instinctive Ederson save early within the first half. Having mentioned that, the cautious, data-led suggestion could be that these two groups cancel one another out as soon as once more.
Thom Harris
(Michael Regan/Getty Pictures)
Is Haaland vs Arsenal’s centre-backs the important thing battle?
Will probably be one of some key battles. Arsenal shut out Haaland in all three conferences final season (together with the Neighborhood Protect), with the striker failing to actually have a shot heading in the right direction in any of these matches. Key to that was how William Saliba and fellow centre-back Gabriel took turns in getting tight and bodily with him. They didn’t enable him to get any momentum, whether or not it was when working in behind or just in getting a really feel for the sport. Replicating that will probably be vital, as will how Arsenal determine to method defending sure areas. Their wingers had been important to retaining Spurs quiet final Sunday, and related work might assist in Manchester.
Artwork de Roche
Haaland is clearly Metropolis’s major scoring menace, however whereas we’ve all centered on his 9 league targets in 4 video games, together with these back-to-back hat-tricks, it has in all probability gone unnoticed that there are usually not many targets coming from their different gamers. In that sense, if he can not get service, or if he does however misses his possibilities, it severely impacts Metropolis’s possibilities of successful. Then again, we all know he usually goes via video games with out having many touches, and that that is largely by design — so he can pin centre-backs and create area in midfield for Metropolis’s different forwards.
(Darren Staples/AFP through Getty Pictures)
In that sense, it’s potential that he might win the battle by getting 4 touches and doing nothing of observe all afternoon, so long as he retains Saliba and Gabriel occupied and lets his colleagues get on with it. Whether or not Haaland scores or not could have a giant say within the precise outcome, however it is only one side of this recreation — Metropolis should be adequate to get via the Arsenal press to attempt to create possibilities for him anyway.
Sam Lee
I very a lot agree with Sam right here; the 2 centre-backs might nullify Haaland for 99 per cent of the sport, solely to be undone by a second of high quality — very like they had been in Metropolis’s 3-1 win on the Emirates Stadium in February 2023, when he scored with just about his first sight of objective with lower than 10 minutes of the 90 to go.
Unstoppable 💪
Erling Haaland scored his twenty sixth Premier League objective of the season in opposition to Arsenal 🤯#PLonPrime pic.twitter.com/uy2aXK91Lm
— Amazon Prime Video Sport (@primevideosport) February 16, 2023
The indicators are encouraging for Arsenal, although — that’s Haaland’s solely objective in 359 minutes in opposition to the Saliba and Gabriel partnership throughout all competitions, racking up simply 0.58 xG in near 4 full video games. His solely really dominant efficiency in opposition to Arteta’s aspect got here when Rob Holding stepped in for an injured Saliba later that very same season. I’ll proceed to take a seat on the fence — retaining Haaland quiet might be mandatory for an Arsenal win, however it gained’t assure one both.
Thom Harris
Ought to we count on a basic between the league’s finest two groups?
Whereas it could be good, I’m not anticipating an all-timer of a recreation. After the three matches between the edges final season, and Arsenal’s latest matches in opposition to Spurs and Atalanta, it appears like one other 90 minutes of stress is on the horizon. Arteta tried to go blow-for-blow in opposition to Metropolis in his first title problem in 2022-23, however particular person errors crept in and allowed Guardiola’s aspect to run away with the match. His swap to extra of a ‘Plan B’ for larger video games was a welcome change final season and has saved Arsenal in these encounters. If the Spaniard had the midfield three he envisaged in the summertime (Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice and Mikel Merino) out there then issues might have been completely different, however he doesn’t — so count on extra of the identical.
Artwork de Roche
I keep in mind one factor very clearly from after the goalless draw on the Etihad in March: I didn’t need the 2 golf equipment to fulfill once more within the Champions League semi-finals, which was potential on the time. I had been anticipating a very good recreation earlier than kick-off that Sunday, as a result of most of Metropolis’s latest title deciders, house or away, had been fairly dramatic, with wonderful soccer on present — and we clearly received nowhere close to that. It might simply be that was what Jurgen Klopp dropped at the celebration when his Liverpool staff had been Metropolis’s major challengers, and Arteta has a unique approach of dealing with these huge video games.
That mentioned, it’s not like Guardiola by no means chooses a defensive method. Metropolis’s recreation plan on the Emirates final yr was to flee with a 0-0, given he was involved in regards to the absence of a suspended Rodri from his midfield. And Metropolis weren’t at their finest within the return recreation, both. It isn’t controversial to say that if Arteta desires his staff to dig in, then it’s tougher to think about a basic, simply by the character of the encounter. It might nonetheless be a very good recreation if each groups take their possibilities, in fact, however who says Arsenal are going to go together with the identical recreation plan anyway?
Sam Lee
Very blissful to be unsuitable on this one, however I really feel like an early-ish objective is the one factor that may relieve us from one other tense battle of attrition.
Thom Harris
This fixture ended 6-3 in 2013 however right this moment’s recreation is unlikely to have 9 targets (Martin Rickett/PA Pictures through Getty Pictures)
Who would be the larger miss, Kevin De Bruyne (if he doesn’t get better) or Odegaard?
Though De Bruyne is likely one of the Premier League’s best-ever midfielders, Metropolis’s power in depth makes his absences simpler to take care of. Arsenal have lacked any actual tempo with out Odegaard, as he’s instrumental to what they do on the ball in all thirds of the pitch. Contemplating there was such a stark stylistic distinction with out him within the aspect, it doesn’t really feel too rogue to recommend that Arsenal’s captain could be the larger miss. Other than objective contributions, Odegaard is sort of all the time the participant who units the tone for Arsenal with and with out the ball, and he will probably be a large miss throughout this ongoing harm lay-off.
For an instance of how influential he’s, final season he was one in every of simply two Arsenal gamers to be concerned in at the very least two actions that had been both build-up, likelihood creation or a shot per 90 minutes. The opposite was Bukayo Saka, with Odegaard understandably registering increased numbers in build-up and likelihood creation.
Artwork de Roche
I agree with Artwork. Metropolis have proved they’ll get by with out De Bruyne mainly each time he has been injured, going again years. Given his high quality, that’s fairly an achievement. He missed quite a lot of 2018-19, fairly a little bit of 2020-21 and half of final season, and Metropolis gained the title in all three years anyway. They’ve all the time had the gamers, or tactical tweaks, that imply they’ll greater than make up for De Bruyne’s absence. In 2018-19, it was Bernardo Silva working from the center, two years later they embraced the false-nine system which concerned Bernardo and Ilkay Gundogan pinging the ball round for enjoyable, and final yr they simply sort of received by in quite a lot of methods, with no specific stand-out substitute. Then again, Odegaard is one in every of Arsenal’s (and the Premier League’s) finest gamers, and they don’t have equal squad depth.
Sam Lee
(Michael Regan/Getty Pictures)
I’ll play satan’s advocate. Metropolis have scored 17 targets in opposition to Arteta’s Arsenal within the Premier League; De Bruyne has had a hand in six of them, regardless of taking part in round 54 per cent of the overall minutes. His influence on this usually title-tilting fixture is unparalleled, and Metropolis will clearly miss his medical edge in video games akin to this. He has began the season in dominant kind too, second solely to Dwight McNeil of Everton for possibilities created, whereas his 162 passes within the attacking third places him 65 away from every other participant within the division.
The argument that Metropolis are extra geared up to take care of De Bruyne’s absence is honest, however there may be no person fairly just like the Belgian for blowing video games like this vast open, and given Arsenal’s latest solidity, the defending champions might miss that spark.
Thom Harris
(Prime pictures: Getty Pictures)