Nov. 18 2024, Printed 11:41 a.m. ET
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The Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey, taken simply days earlier than the election, discovered Harris main with 47% help whereas Trump solely had 44%.
Iowa, as soon as a Democratic stronghold for Barack Obama, had shifted to the Republican column within the final two election cycles and was not anticipated to be a battleground state within the 2024 race.
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Whereas Trump cruised to victory in Iowa’s in style and electoral votes for the third straight election, he took to his social media web site – Reality Social – to announce he would nonetheless be investigating Selzer for potential fraud.
He wrote: “A very Pretend ballot that precipitated nice mistrust and uncertainty at a really important time. She knew precisely what she was doing.
“Thanks to the GREAT PEOPLE OF IOWA for giving me such a document breaking vote, regardless of attainable ELECTION FRAUD by Ann Selzer and the now discredited ‘newspaper’ for which she works. An investigation is totally referred to as for!”
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On the time, Trump accused Selzer of over-sampling Democrats to create the phantasm that Harris was forward in Iowa.
He did, nevertheless, find yourself beating the Democratic candidate by over 13 factors.
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Selzer, “Iowa’s Polling Queen” who has performed Des Moines Register surveys for many years, had precisely predicted each presidential final result since 2008.
She introduced her retirement on Sunday after her newest outcomes missed the mark by a large margin, saying she was leaving The Register to concentrate on polling for different shoppers.
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She mentioned: “Over a 12 months in the past I suggested the Register I’d not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the most recent election ballot as I transition to different ventures and alternatives.
“Would I’ve favored to make this announcement after a closing ballot aligned with Election Day outcomes? After all. It’s ironic that it’s simply the alternative.”
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Selzer continued: “Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a manner of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, but all the time prepared to be taught from sudden findings.”
She additionally admitted to her analysis being completely mistaken after Trump’s landslide win, including: “I advised multiple information outlet that the findings from this final ballot might truly energize and activate Republican voters who thought they’d doubtless coast to victory. Possibly that is what occurred.”
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In an try to defend her technique, Selzer mentioned the ballot findings produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom “didn’t match what the Iowa citizens in the end determined within the voting sales space in the present day”.
She additionally mentioned there was nothing modified to the information taken, saying throughout a CNN look: “When former President Trump mentioned we interviewed extra Democrats, nicely that is what got here out of our information.
“We did nothing to make that occur.”
Selzer added: “I am an enormous believer in preserving my fingers off, my soiled fingers off the information. So we did it the way in which, we did it when he received in our closing ballot twice, in two election cycles, exact same technique.
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