Putting the NFC North’s dominance in context: Best division since realignment?

The NFL’s Thanksgiving schedule delivers three-fourths of what may turn out to be probably the most dominant division because the league realigned in 2002.

The 2024 NFC North is the primary division because the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to characteristic three groups with a minimum of eight victories via Week 12, led by the 10-1 Detroit Lions, who’ve tied an all-time NFL mark for many victories in a season by a minimum of 38 factors (three, all exterior the division).

With the Lions dealing with the division-rival Chicago Bears (4-7) within the early recreation Thursday earlier than the 8-3 Inexperienced Bay Packers play the late recreation in opposition to the AFC East’s Miami Dolphins, the 2024 NFC North — which additionally consists of the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings — stands aside. It may effectively resolve who takes residence the Lombardi Trophy.

The Lions (+260), Packers (+750) and Vikings (+850) are among the many high seven in Tremendous Bowl odds, per BetMGM, and the highest 4 in odds to win the NFC, together with the Philadelphia Eagles (+325). The Lions stay Tremendous Bowl favorites, comfortably forward of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (+450), whereas the NFC North has the shortest odds to provide the champion at +175, half of the second-place AFC West (+350).

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The chart beneath exhibits the place all eight divisions have ranked every season because the league realigned in 2002 in level margin per recreation (X-axis) and win fee (Y-axis) in non-divisional video games via the primary 12 weeks of every season. The 2024 NFC North (pink dot) ranks first amongst these 184 divisional seasons in common level margin (+9.5) and second in win fee (.765), per TruMedia.

Solely the 2022 NFC East (26-7) had a greater report than the 2024 NFC North (26-8) in non-division video games via Week 12, however the present NFC North had a much better common level margin (+9.5 to +5.1) in these video games.

Right here’s what it’s essential to learn about the place the NFC North stands and what it should do to turn out to be probably the most dominant division over a full season since realignment.

1. The NFC North is by far probably the most dominant division this season.

The scheduling rotation (which we’ll discover later) is a part of the equation, however this stage of dominance is excessive.

AFC North groups paved the way in whole victories over opponents who presently have profitable information (11) and whole non-divisional victories in these video games (9). The NFC North is second with eight and 6.

Since 2002, the NFC North’s +323 level margin ranks first by 64 factors over the runner-up 2013 NFC West (+259) via Week 12. That’s bigger than the distinction between the 2013 NFC West and the sixth-ranked division in that span, the 2011 NFC North (+200). The desk beneath exhibits the one divisions since 2002 with PPG margins higher than 7.0 via Week 12, led by the 2024 NFC North.

2. Robust protection has been the important thing to the NFC North dominating its non-divisional schedule.

The 2024 NFC North ranks first amongst 184 divisions since 2002 in defensive EPA per play in opposition to non-division opponents, in comparison with a No. 69 rating in offensive EPA per play.

All 4 NFC North groups rank among the many NFL’s high 10 in defensive EPA per play throughout all video games this season. They’re all within the high 5 when isolating non-divisional video games solely. The Lions and Packers additionally rank among the many high 10 on offense throughout all video games and in non-division video games.

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3. Dominating a weak AFC South accounts for 61 p.c of the NFC North’s +323 level differential in non-division video games.

NFC North groups are 8-0 with a +144 differential in opposition to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. They’re 14-2 with a +197 differential in opposition to the total AFC South. Unhealthy groups get blown out. The NFC North has performed its share of them.

Forty-five p.c of the +323 differential in non-division video games stems from dealing with the Jaguars and Titans, whereas 61 p.c stems from dealing with the AFC South total.

The six different divisions are a mixed 9-9 in opposition to the AFC South, with a +14 differential. That features a 6-7 mark with a +21 differential for AFC East groups.

4. The NFC North has a 6-4 report in opposition to non-divisional opponents who had profitable information via Week 12. Right here’s a full accounting.

The Bears are the one NFC North workforce with out a victory over a workforce that presently has a profitable report. They’re 0-3 in these matchups, headlined by their defeat at Washington on a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary. The remainder of the NFC North has a 6-1 report in these video games, with three victories over Houston, two over Arizona and one over Seattle.

The NFC North’s report can be 6-3 if we adjusted the parameters to characteristic non-divisional video games in opposition to groups that had profitable information at kickoff. Victories over Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa Bay would come into play.

5. NFC North groups play 10 extra video games in opposition to non-division opponents this season. Right here’s what the division should do to turn out to be probably the most dominant since 2002.

The NFL pushes most division video games later within the season for aggressive causes. That leaves solely 10 remaining non-division video games for the NFC North to construct upon its dominance or fall within the rankings. These video games are listed beneath chronologically and with level spreads pulled collectively from varied sources the place out there.

The 2013 NFC North holds the full-season report for PPG margin in opposition to non-divisional opponents since realignment (+359 in 40 video games, for 8.975 per recreation). That division featured the 13-3 Tremendous Bowl champion Seahawks, the Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers (12-4), the Bruce Arians-coached Cardinals (10-6) and the 7-9 Rams.

NFC North groups should outscore their 10 remaining non-divisional opponents by 72 factors to beat the 2013 NFC West for the very best full-season differential since 2002. That would go away the division +395 in 44 video games for a +8.977 PPG differential.

The most effective full-season report in opposition to non-divisional opponents since 2002 is shared by the 2013 NFC West and the 2007 NFC South at 30-10 (.750). The NFC North (presently .765 at 26-8) would equal that mark with a 7-3 end in opposition to foes exterior the division.

The most effective workforce within the NFC North (Detroit) can be at residence for the division’s hardest remaining opponent (Buffalo). The Seahawks’ current enchancment on protection may complicate efforts for Chicago, Minnesota and Inexperienced Bay to win at Seattle. The 49ers’ decline may assist Chicago (Week 14) and Detroit (Week 17).

Inexperienced Bay and Minnesota can set the tone in Week 13. Each are favored at residence in opposition to non-division opponents.

(Photograph of Josh Jacobs, heart, and three Lions defenders: Stacy Revere / Getty Pictures)

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