Ranking 134 college football teams after Week 14: Penn State-Notre Dame and other key tossups

Editor’s be aware: The Athletic 134 is a weekly rating of all FBS school soccer groups. 

It seems the primary 12-team Faculty Soccer Playoff subject could also be principally locked in earlier than championship weekend. After weeks of twists, turns and hypotheticals, determining the 12 groups has turn out to be principally fairly simple by the tip. However seeding these groups stays fully up within the air, and it’s the place the committee can be examined.

Ten, perhaps 11, groups really feel like locks: Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, the Large 12 champion (Iowa State or Arizona State), the ACC champion (SMU or Clemson) and the Mountain West champion (Boise State or UNLV). That’s 11. When you imagine that 11-1 SMU needs to be a lock whatever the ACC Championship Sport final result, the sector could also be set if Clemson wins that sport. When you don’t, an SMU loss would depart one spot up for grabs between Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, together with the Mustangs.

However the place will everybody be seeded? Will incomes the No. 5 seed truly be a bonus or not? Who can have the perfect championship path from the quarterfinals on? Who will get the final slot to host a first-round sport with the No. 8 seed?

I’ve disagreed with the committee fairly a bit all season. I’ve been increased on SMU and Arizona State and decrease on Miami than them. We don’t understand how low Ohio State will drop after the Buckeyes’ stunning loss to Michigan, however I don’t imagine it needs to be too far.

Because it seems, selecting 12 groups could also be simpler this 12 months than selecting 4 groups. However the committee is about to set numerous precedent: the way it values wins and losses, the way it reacts to convention championship losses, the way it feels in regards to the SEC. It created a firestorm by leaving Florida State out a 12 months in the past, however it was capable of take the straightforward out, understanding that particular choice would by no means come up once more. However there can be at the least another 12-team subject after this 12 months, and the long run form of the CFP subject might rely upon how the ultimate rankings go.

GO DEEPER

Mandel’s Last Ideas: Ohio State’s woes and different Rivalry Weekend classes

Right here is that this week’s Athletic 134.

1-10

Texas dealt with enterprise towards Texas A&M, shifting as much as No. 2 with an opportunity to avenge its lone loss to Georgia. A win Saturday in Atlanta and an Oregon loss might put the Longhorns at No. 1. A Texas loss and a Penn State win might put the Nittany Lions at No. 1.

However I’ve moved Notre Dame forward of Penn State at No. 3 this week, which in flip would put Notre Dame because the No. 5 seed in my bracket. The rationale the Preventing Irish jumped the Nittany Lions is that the 2 now have a standard opponent in USC. Penn State went to extra time with the Trojans, whereas Notre Dame received by 14 (and led by 21 till the ultimate seconds, too). Sure, Notre Dame has that Northern Illinois loss hanging round its neck, however don’t overlook Penn State itself trailed a MAC group (Bowling Inexperienced) at halftime and held on for a seven-point win. If there’s one group that may’t lean an excessive amount of on a MAC efficiency argument towards Notre Dame, it’s Penn State.

The Irish have been rolling. Ten of Notre Dame’s 11 wins have come by a number of scores, and the win towards my No. 24 Louisville seems higher now. Penn State does have the higher Greatest Win (No. 17 Illinois), and if the Nittany Lions beat or keep shut with Oregon, they’ll return in entrance of the Irish.

Ohio State drops to No. 6, and it’s an essential spot forward. A bracket following these rankings would have No. 7 Tennessee visiting Columbus within the 8 vs. 9 sport, reasonably than the Buckeyes coming to Knoxville. The most recent AP ballot put Tennessee forward of Ohio State, however I don’t get that in any respect. The groups’ respective losses to Michigan and Arkansas primarily cancel one another out. Ohio State nonetheless has two top-10 wins (Penn State, Indiana) and a one-point loss at No. 1 Oregon. Tennessee has the win over Alabama, no different top-25 wins and a 14-point loss to Georgia. Take out the recency bias of Saturday, and Ohio State’s resume is clearly higher than Tennessee’s. We’ll see whether or not the committee agrees.

The remainder of the highest 10 stays the identical with SMU, Indiana and Boise State all profitable comfortably.

GO DEEPER

What we realized in regards to the Faculty Soccer Playoff: Who’s in? Who’s protected? Who’s on bubble?

11-25

Alabama grabs the final at-large spot in my bracket, and that is the place the committee has its hardest name. The Tide have two losses to 6-6 groups, together with by 21 factors at Oklahoma. However in addition they have three clear top-25 wins towards Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri. Miami has zero top-25 wins if the committee doesn’t embody Louisville, and its losses are to a 9-3 Syracuse group and a 7-5 Georgia Tech group that simply took Georgia to eight overtimes. Does the committee choose the higher wins or the less-bad losses? Placing a three-loss group within the subject feels bizarre, however any individual must be group No. 12.

Though South Carolina arguably is taking part in in addition to anybody within the nation proper now, I don’t assume there needs to be a CFP path for the Gamecocks. You all know I lean on head-to-head outcomes when evaluating groups in the identical basic tier. South Carolina misplaced to Alabama and Ole Miss, the latter a 27-3 defeat at house. I simply can’t put the Gamecocks increased than these two. The video games must matter. Perhaps the committee will really feel in a different way.

Illinois jumps forward of Colorado as an adjustment from final week. Each groups are 9-3, and Illinois went 2-0 towards their frequent opponents (Nebraska and Kansas), whereas Colorado went 0-2. Syracuse strikes again into the highest 25 with its win over Miami; UNLV additionally offers Syracuse one other top-25 win. Clemson barely hangs on within the high 25 as a result of the South Carolina sport was shut, however the Tigers have only one win over a group with a profitable report (a late escape towards 7-5 Pitt), they usually misplaced definitively at house to Louisville. And nonetheless, Clemson has a shot on the CFP within the ACC championship. In the meantime, the Cardinals transfer as much as No. 24 after a 41-14 win at Kentucky.

GO DEEPER

Stewart Mandel’s 12-team Playoff projections after Week 14

26-50

Texas A&M falls to No. 26 after its 17-7 house loss to Texas. Kansas State drops to No. 29 after a loss to Iowa State. Tulane’s loss to Memphis sees the Inexperienced Wave fall to No. 30.

Michigan jumps to No. 31 after the win towards Ohio State, and Georgia Tech stays in usually the identical place at No. 32 after taking Georgia to the brink. Baylor completed the season with six consecutive wins and stays at No. 34. Louisiana reached 10 wins and strikes as much as No. 40; the Ragin’ Cajuns will play for the Solar Belt championship this weekend.

Pitt has turned a 7-0 begin right into a 7-5 end and drops to No. 45, although accidents actually performed a job in that. Vanderbilt, one other former top-25 group right here, falls to No. 42 after a 36-23 loss to Tennessee, giving the Commodores 4 losses of their final 5 towards SEC competitors. Again within the high 50 after wins are Navy (over East Carolina), Boston Faculty (over North Carolina) and Rutgers (over Michigan State).

GO DEEPER

What does the return of Texas-Texas A&M imply? Here is what I noticed earlier than, throughout and after

51-75

Nebraska drops out of the highest 50 to No. 51 after one more late loss to Iowa. Marshall got here again late to beat James Madison, win the Solar Belt East and rise as much as No. 52. West Virginia misplaced 52-15 to Texas Tech, then fired head coach Neal Brown and now falls to No. 54. Washington State, as soon as 8-1 total and ranked within the high 25, ended the common season with three consecutive shocking losses to New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming, all of whom completed with shedding data. The Cougars drop to No. 55.

No. 57 Virginia Tech and No. 58 NC State transfer up after rivalry wins earned them bowl eligibility. No. 65 UConn beat UMass to maneuver to 8-4, its most wins in a season since 2010. In the meantime, No. 60 Auburn, No. 62 Virginia, No. 63 Wisconsin, No. 64 Cincinnati and No. 67 Michigan State all drop after losses that left them to overlook out on bowl video games.

Western Kentucky beat Jacksonville State, so the Hilltoppers bounce to No. 68, and the 2 groups will run it again Friday within the Convention USA Championship Sport. Georgia Southern beat rival Appalachian State, and the Eagles transfer as much as No. 71.

76-100

No. 79 Miami (Ohio) and No. 80 Ohio will play a rematch for the MAC championship on Saturday (Miami beat Ohio 30-20 in mid-October). San Jose State beat Stanford and jumped to No. 81 to cap a robust first season underneath Ken Niumatalolo. North Texas barely held on however beat Temple and at last reached bowl eligibility, shifting as much as No. 93. Hawaii’s win towards New Mexico sees the Rainbow Warriors climb to No. 98.

101-134

That is the a part of the rankings during which nearly all of the remaining groups are of their closing touchdown spot, with no hope of a bowl sport. Oklahoma State’s disastrous 3-9 season ended with a 52-0 loss to Colorado and an 0-9 report in Large 12 play, dropping to No. 103. The Cowboys solely felt just like the worst Energy 4 group down the stretch — No. 104 Mississippi State, No. 105 Florida State and No. 112 Purdue had been worse. Final 12 months, there was only one Energy 4 group that completed 2-10 or worse (Vandy). This 12 months, we obtained three.

ULM began 5-0 however completed 5-7, ending at No. 107. Louisiana Tech received two of its final three video games to complete 5-7, bump as much as No. 109, and head coach Sonny Cumbie can be again subsequent season. Air Pressure received its final 4 video games to get to 5-7 and No. 111. San Diego State, in the meantime, misplaced its closing six video games to drop to 3-9 and No. 126. Kennesaw State completed 2-10 and No. 132 in its first FBS season.

Kent State turned the primary 0-12 group within the FBS since 2019 with its loss to Buffalo. The Golden Flashes solely had two video games end inside three scores — towards FCS St. Francis (Pa.) and Ball State, which fired its coach.

The Athletic 134 collection is a part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Companions haven’t any management over or enter into the reporting or enhancing course of and don’t evaluate tales earlier than publication.

(Photograph: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Photographs)