Houston Texans sensation C.J. Stroud had an opportunity to solidify himself this season among the many NFL’s elite class of quarterbacks.
The No. 2 decide within the 2023 draft was a straightforward selection for Offensive Rookie of the 12 months. Throughout coaching camp, The Athletic requested coaches and executives which three quarterbacks they’d take to begin a franchise from scratch, with Stroud showing on 16 of 27 ballots. Solely Patrick Mahomes obtained extra votes.
As a substitute, Stroud’s projected bounce has been on maintain. He hasn’t been dangerous this season, however his efficiency has dipped — and so has his standing in these rankings. That is the primary time Stroud has discovered himself outdoors of the highest 10. One government mentioned Stroud has been “not taking part in anyplace close to (in addition to) final yr” when he was so dominant that he dramatically accelerated the Texans’ rebuild by main them to their first AFC South title in 4 years.
The Athletic’s Week 16 QB rankings
Two statistics stand out. First, Stroud led the NFL in 2023 with 273.9 passing yards per recreation, however it has dropped to 232.0 this season, rating seventeenth. He additionally led the league as a rookie by throwing interceptions on 1 % of his passes, however that’s doubled to 2 % (sixteenth within the NFL) this season.
“I don’t anticipate C.J. to be a man who dips and can proceed to battle,” a second government mentioned. “I believe he’ll determine it out, and so they’ll determine it out as a crew. They’ve sufficient weapons. The way in which they’ve run the ball will take strain off him.”
Stroud’s points have stemmed from safety issues on the offensive line. He’s already taken extra sacks this season than as a rookie (45 to 38), and he’s been sacked on practically 9 % of his dropbacks, a rise of about 2 %.
There is no escaping @zachsieler. 😈 #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/4Fd73A1k3f
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 15, 2024
“He’s getting the s— beat out of him,” the second government mentioned. “He’s been getting hit all yr. When C.J. is beneath strain, the play goes to drop off. If you’re not comfy and don’t belief what’s round you, that’s not stunning as a younger quarterback. I don’t assume he’s regressed. I believe he’s simply sped up with the progressions and the throws, and that hurts accuracy.”
The hits could be not possible for even one of the best quarterbacks to beat, not to mention the youthful sign callers who’re nonetheless growing. When the Texans misplaced three of 4 earlier this season to the Lions, Jets, Colts (win) and Packers, Stroud took 18 sacks and was hit 17 extra occasions.
In fact, it additionally hasn’t helped that high receiver Nico Collins missed 5 video games with a hamstring damage, star wideout Stefon Diggs tore his ACL in Week 8 and working again Joe Mixon missed three early video games with a excessive ankle sprain.
So no, Stroud hasn’t dazzled the best way he did as a rookie, however it’s additionally comprehensible. Add within the defensive changes that younger quarterbacks face, the shortage of go safety and the accidents round Stroud, and it’s been sufficient to rock his sometimes regular composure.
“Individuals within the scouting neighborhood have been to see how this offense and the participant would alter in 12 months 2 when groups had a yr to check, alter and study what he does effectively and what he struggles with,” a 3rd government mentioned. “Now it’s as much as the offensive employees and the participant to regulate if they will.”
It’s additionally truthful to level out that Stroud isn’t the primary quarterback to cope with safety and damage points. However at this stage of his profession, that’s a typical confluence of things that end in momentary quarterback regression.
“It’s studying the right way to cope with that,” the second government mentioned.
All of the whereas, the Texans nonetheless wrapped up the AFC South division title with three video games to play. They beat the Payments in Week 4 and misplaced to the Packers and Lions by a mixed 5 factors, in order that they’re not too far off. Their subsequent two video games, in opposition to the Chiefs and Ravens, might change the complete notion across the Texans’ playoff possibilities.
Nonetheless the remainder of the season performs out, no coach nor government surveyed by The Athletic this season believes Stroud’s rookie yr was a fluke. This season is considered as rising pains for a quarterback who can nonetheless mature into one of many league’s greatest gamers.
GO DEEPER
NFL playoff image after Week 15: Eagles, Vikings be a part of Lions atop NFC; Rams lead NFC West
Collision course
Jared Goff has been excellent all season, however the Lions QB did one thing Sunday within the loss to the Payments that ought to create optimism throughout a irritating stretch in Detroit.
Earlier within the yr, executives wished to see how Goff would carry out when the Lions weren’t answerable for the sport — apparent passing conditions in a deficit when he wanted to go throw for throw with an upper-echelon quarterback on the opposing sideline.
GO DEEPER
Lions bought a actuality verify in opposition to Payments. How they reply will decide how far they will go
Suffice it to say, Goff didn’t blink regardless of trailing by a number of scores for almost all of the Lions’ 48-42 loss. And given the state of the Lions’ injury-ravaged protection and the unenviable activity of countering one other superhuman efficiency from Josh Allen, there wasn’t any room for error after Detroit’s stagnant begin.
Goff completed Sunday 38-of-59 passing for 494 yards and 5 touchdowns. He led 4 consecutive TD drives to shut the sport, practically serving to the Lions pull off a miracle comeback regardless of a uncommon Amon-Ra St. Brown misplaced fumble and a Jake Bates missed subject purpose.
GOFF TO AMON-RA. 66-YARD TD.
Not over in Detroit.
📺: #BUFvsDET on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/uHEKLWabzy— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Goff proved he can submit factors in a rush if needed. And with what number of accidents the Lions have endured, it can in all probability be needed.
Talking of which, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts additionally silenced some doubters, inner or in any other case, with an excellent efficiency in a 27-13 victory in opposition to the Steelers. He was 25 of 32 for 290 yards and two touchdowns whereas dashing for 45 yards and a rating, and Hurts did it whereas working again Saquon Barkley was largely restricted.
The Lions and Eagles have been the NFC’s top-two seeds for the reason that playoff image started to take form, so it might hardly be a shock to see them sq. off with a visit to the Tremendous Bowl on the road. And with each quarterbacks answering pivotal questions in opposition to high quality opponents, such a matchup might reside as much as the hype.
Choose 2
Two random ideas. First, Packers wideout Romeo Doubs did certainly make an superior catch on his game-sealing 22-yard landing in opposition to the Seahawks, however let’s not lose sight of Jordan Love’s throw. The Packers QB was on the 32-yard line when he made the throw to Doubs, who was on the 10-yard line and wrestling by way of tight protection in the course of the QB’s windup. Love picked an ideal spot and couldn’t have thrown it any higher.
WHAT AN INCREDIBLE CATCH!#ProBowlVote + #RomeoDoubs pic.twitter.com/P8Zu0eEgoD
— Inexperienced Bay Packers (@packers) December 16, 2024
Second, and this would possibly sound bizarre after a 12-6 rock struggle within the rain, however Rams QB Matthew Stafford has been taking part in at a really excessive stage for a lot of the previous month. His efficiency two weeks in the past in opposition to the Payments was nearly as good because it will get when it comes to making high-quality throw after high-quality throw. The Rams are shaping as much as be a risk in the event that they get into the playoffs, and Stafford’s play is a major purpose.
Bloody Sunday
It was a troublesome week to play quarterback. Mahomes suffered a excessive ankle sprain; Geno Smith exited with a knee damage; and Justin Herbert aggravated his ankle damage.
Moreover, Jameis Winston, Jake Haener and Will Levis have been benched, whereas Tommy DeVito suffered a concussion.
We stored Winston and Levis within the rankings whereas the Browns and Titans assess their conditions. Haener was changed within the rankings by Spencer Rattler, as we work beneath the belief he’ll get an extended take care of his spectacular second half in opposition to the Commanders.
Displaying the fragility of the backup/fringe starter dynamic throughout the league, simply six groups have had the Thirty second-ranked QB in 16 weeks this season — the Dolphins (5 occasions), Giants (4), Raiders (two), Titans (two), Saints (two) and Packers (one). And in hindsight, if there was any technique to predict how effectively Malik Willis would have performed for the Packers, they wouldn’t be on this checklist.
Dropped out: Drew Lock (heel damage), No. 31 final week; Haener (benched), No. 32 final week.
(Picture of C.J. Stroud: Luke Hales / Getty Photos)