Abstract
As we come to the tip of one other sturdy yr for the inventory market, quite a lot of technical situations will not be almost as sturdy as after we entered 2024. On the identical time, different sentiment indicators are reflecting excessive optimism — simply as they had been a yr in the past. The market bottomed in October 2023 and had an amazing run in 2024 till July, when it was smacked for a number of months. After bottoming in August, shares noticed extra clear crusing — albeit with some agita of late. At the beginning of 2024, 79% of shares on the S&P 500 (SPX) had been above their 200-day common; immediately, that studying is 58% and has been falling because the starting of December (when it was 77%). For the S&P 100, an especially excessive 84% of the index was over its 200-day firstly of the yr; now, that has dropped to a mildly bullish 63% (from 79% on the finish of November). For essentially the most half, these breadth deteriorations have taken place since mid-October. For the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), a really sturdy 87% of the index holdings had been over their 200-day firstly of the yr; now, the studying is 58%. There have been two intervals of decay, and each coincided with rallies within the index. The Bullish Pe