The highway to the Tremendous Bowl goes by Kansas Metropolis. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play within the AFC Championship Recreation for a seventh straight yr. They’re now simply two wins away from the best achievement within the Tremendous Bowl period: a three-peat. Standing of their method are the Buffalo Payments, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night time, and now have an opportunity to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.
Within the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night time and can attempt to repeat the feat subsequent weekend in opposition to the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Jeff Howe breaks down every of the 2 convention championship recreation matchups earlier than The Athletic’s NFL Projection Mannequin, created by Austin Mock, reveals every remaining crew’s odds of successful the Tremendous Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Payments (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)
The powers of the AFC wouldn’t budge this season, because the Chiefs and Payments will meet on the AFC Championship Recreation stage for the second time in 4 years.
The Payments finalized the showdown Sunday night with an exciting 27-25 victory in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outdueled fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, because the Payments star completed 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a few speeding scores to assist push back Baltimore’s comeback bid.
The Chiefs have been considerably shaky of their postseason debut, however they knocked off the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin regardless of the guests outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s as a result of the protection (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and particular groups nonetheless carry loads of weight, and the Chiefs are essentially the most well-balanced crew within the discipline.
The Chiefs, in case you haven’t heard, are on a quest to grow to be the primary crew in historical past to win three consecutive Tremendous Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy thrice since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.
It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has extra video games with fewer than 200 passing yards (5) than over 300 yards (three), together with the divisional spherical. However he hasn’t been making errors, accounting for 13 touchdowns (one speeding) since his final interception two months in the past.
Mahomes additionally has 15 touchdowns in opposition to simply two interceptions (each within the loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Video games. In truth, the Chiefs haven’t dedicated a single turnover over their previous eight video games. That’ll be a focus in opposition to the Payments, who notched three takeaways Sunday in opposition to the Ravens and have compelled a number of turnovers in 11-of-19 video games this season.
Mahomes hasn’t gotten a variety of assist. His offensive tackles have been poor — a minimum of when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left sort out — and his ability gamers have been out and in of the lineup with accidents.
However he’s nonetheless obtained Travis Kelce, who simply ripped off the ninth 100-yard recreation of his playoff profession. The 35-year-old future Professional Soccer Corridor of Famer’s manufacturing dipped significantly in the course of the common season, however Kelce is as clutch as ever within the playoffs. He’s had a minimum of 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason video games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch — so Kelce is as automated because it will get. He’s additionally led the league in receiving touchdowns in 4 of the previous 5 postseasons.
And but, the NFL’s modern-day dynasty shall be tasked with one query all week: Can they cease Allen?
Allen accomplished 63.6 p.c of his passes in the course of the common season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 speeding yards and a dozen scores.
Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one landing and one interception when the Payments beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 speeding yards, together with a 26-yard landing on a pivotal fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ solely loss this season with Mahomes because the starter, and it may need been the efficiency that launched Allen’s MVP marketing campaign.
The Chiefs are 6-3 within the AFC Championship in the course of the Tremendous Bowl period, together with 4-2 with Mahomes, whereas the Payments are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 within the playoffs in opposition to the Payments, together with three consecutive wins over the earlier 4 years.
• Chiefs’ probabilities to win Tremendous Bowl: 30.5%
• Payments’ probabilities to win Tremendous Bowl: 25.9%
Probabilities to win the Tremendous Bowl
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Group
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Odds
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|---|---|
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33.8% |
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30.5% |
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25.9% |
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9.8% |
NFC
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
The NFC North wore the crown all season, however the NFC East is chasing the ring.
The Eagles and Commanders meet within the NFC Championship Recreation after splitting the regular-season collection, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 victory of their most up-to-date assembly in Week 16 in Philadelphia. The Eagles wanted a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so each video games have been shut.
The Eagles might want an asterisk for his or her loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, however their 33 factors was the sixth-highest output of the season behind a robust Kenny Pickett efficiency. The way more essential story was that the Eagles couldn’t win regardless of a 5-2 benefit within the turnover battle.
So what occurs if the Eagles can’t drum up sufficient takeaways within the third installment? Possibly that’s additionally a moot level, as that they had a slender 1-0 edge in takeaways within the earlier win. It’s a uncommon event when turnovers haven’t made the distinction in both final result.
Nonetheless, the Commanders gained’t need to check that principle any additional. The Eagles have compelled 30 turnovers of their final 13 video games, together with a few compelled fumbles throughout a pivotal second-half stretch as they eradicated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 within the divisional spherical.
GO DEEPER
The Commanders are a win away from the Tremendous Bowl. Let that marinate for a bit
Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense enjoying at an elite degree throughout their pair of highway victories within the playoffs. They’ve scored on 11-of-16 possessions, excluding sequences to shut out halves, and have punted only a single time. They’ve turned it over on downs thrice — a risk-reward system that’s been a internet optimistic — however don’t have any interceptions or misplaced fumbles. Additionally they have a missed discipline objective.
Daniels’ command in all conditions has been outstanding. Whereas the rookie possesses a clutch gene that’s turn out to be useful throughout their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did a powerful job Saturday night time of protecting the stress on the top-seeded Lions, main the Commanders to scores on 4 of their 5 possessions following a Detroit rating. The exception was a missed discipline objective, so Daniels constantly saved the ball shifting when the Lions have been trying to make a run.
Daniels will must be nice to get the Commanders to their first Tremendous Bowl in 33 years, and the proof suggests he’ll rise to that problem. He handed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and 4 interceptions throughout their seven-game successful streak, and he added 422 yards and a rating on the bottom. Nonetheless, three of Daniels’ 9 interceptions this season have come in opposition to the Eagles.
Hurts and the Eagles passing assault has been pedestrian since his return from the concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns within the two playoff wins, though he had 106 yards and a rating as a rusher. Vast receivers A.J. Brown (three catches for twenty-four yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made a lot of an influence consequently.
However concern not, because the Eagles nonetheless have working again Saquon Barkley. The perfect offseason addition within the league had 324 speeding yards and two touchdowns in two playoff video games, as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid common season.
These groups have one postseason assembly, with Washington taking their wild-card matchup in 1990. The Commanders are 90-86-6 within the all-time collection.
The Commanders are 5-1 in convention championships in the course of the Tremendous Bowl period, whereas the Eagles are 4-4.
• Eagles’ probabilities to win Tremendous Bowl: 33.8%
• Commanders’ probabilities to win Tremendous Bowl: 9.8%
(Photograph of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Pictures)