All through the season, Duke freshman ahead Cooper Flagg has been thought of the 2025 NBA Draft’s probably No. 1 decide. Starting the season at 17 years previous after reclassifying into the 2024 recruiting class, Flagg is amongst school basketball’s youngest gamers, and his season began with some rising pains. He averaged 15.2 factors whereas taking pictures 44 % from the sphere and 27 % from 3 throughout his first seven video games in November, turning the ball over thrice per sport. It wasn’t a foul begin, as he additionally averaged eight rebounds, 4 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks. However publicly — if not essentially in NBA entrance workplaces — questions arose as as to whether he was a really elite prospect.
On the similar time, Rutgers guard Dylan Harper emerged as a potential challenger at No. 1 all through that first month. He averaged 23.3 factors, 4.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists whereas taking pictures 52 % from the sphere and 35 % from 3 in his first 12 video games, together with back-to-back 36-point and 37-point performances that had been closely attended by NBA personnel in Las Vegas towards Notre Dame and Alabama. As these elements emerged, NBA front-office sources remained steadfast that Flagg was the No. 1 decide. They had been prepared to entertain that Harper might cross Flagg by the tip of the yr, however each NBA govt and scout with whom I spoke in December stated that, if the draft had been held then, Flagg would go No. 1.
Since then, the questions have light. Barring harm, Flagg will go No. 1 within the 2025 draft as a result of he’s turned on the jets and, at simply 18 years previous, morphed into arguably the perfect participant in school basketball. Within the eight video games since Dec. 16, Flagg has averaged 23 factors, seven rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.6 steals and one block whereas taking pictures 55 % from the sphere, 50 % from 3 and 89 % from the road. We haven’t seen a freshman carry out fairly like this since a monster mid-January to mid-February run from Zion Williamson in 2019 when he averaged 25.7 factors, 8.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2.6 steals, 2.2 blocks and have become a nationwide phenomenon. Flagg has entered that territory and, in totality, has arguably been higher than what Williamson — and each different current collegiate one-and-done first-round decide — was by his first 16 video games.
Nick Kalinowski created a graphical illustration of how Flagg’s rolling efficiency markers early within the season in comparison with No. 1 picks Williamson, Cade Cunningham, Deandre Ayton, Ben Simmons, Karl-Anthony Cities, Markelle Fultz and Paolo Banchero through the use of my colleague John Hollinger’s Sport Rating metric. It’s a short-hand look greater than a fancy analysis, and it’s value noting the monster run of video games talked about above for Williamson began proper after his first 15 video games. However thus far, Flagg, who simply turned 18 on Dec. 21, is forward of everybody’s tempo by a major margin following his monster 42-point outing towards Notre Dame final weekend.
Following up on my earlier chart, I wished to see how Cooper Flagg’s performances by 16 video games stacked up towards current NCAA no 1 total draft picks.
The reply: he’s proper on schedule. Arguably forward of it. https://t.co/MgPQPW9p4T pic.twitter.com/TjY6HhD6Ow
— Nick Kalinowski (@kalidrafts) January 15, 2025
That chart additionally reveals that Flagg isn’t stagnating; he’s getting higher each time he takes the court docket, as he confirmed in Saturday’s sport towards Boston Faculty the place he scored 28 factors and had 5 rebounds, 4 assists, two steals and two blocks. It’s as if he took the time over Duke’s non-conference schedule to grasp the velocity of the sport and compute how he must play, then over his final month has found out find out how to dominate inside that assemble. He’s one way or the other showcasing himself to be an much more intriguing prospect than what was anticipated coming into the season from NBA evaluators, and in that point, it’s not an accident that Duke has emerged as arguably the perfect workforce in school basketball.
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Let’s dive into what makes Flagg so particular, and why the race for the No. 1 decide, barring a catastrophic flip of occasions, is basically over.
Enchancment as a shot creator
Getting into the season, scouts knew Flagg can be productive on each ends and his athleticism and motor mixture would enable him to dominate some video games. We knew he’d be wonderful in transition, and that he’d be capable of constantly generate scoring probabilities off offensive rebounds, cuts and straight-line drives when the protection is already tilted. However there was a query relating to Flagg’s ability stage when it got here to creating his personal shot in half-court conditions. Flagg improved on this respect over his remaining yr at Montverde Academy. There have been many extra possessions the place you’d get an opportunity to see him isolate or play in ball screens and be requested to get his personal look both by driving to the rim, attending to his midrange jumper or drawing a foul. However he wasn’t precisely a totally developed participant on this respect, and with him selecting to enter school at 17 years previous, questions existed as to how efficient he’d be attending to his spots and discovering alternatives to attain.
At Duke, notably during the last month, Flagg’s potential to create appears for himself has been wildly spectacular. Greater than something, the flexibility on offense shines. Flagg will seize a defensive rebound and push the ball as much as attempt to create an early shot. Then, if Duke doesn’t have numbers, he’s glad to cross it to a guard or provoke the motion himself, movement right into a ball display and driving to attempt to rating that approach, hit a kickout to a teammate or reset the offense. If groups play drop protection towards him, he can cease and pop for a midrange jumper or attempt to flip the nook. In the event that they change towards him, he can assault mismatches huge and small, both elevating excessive of a guard for a shot or powering by one for a layup. If it’s a giant, he’s sometimes capable of get round him with a fast crossover. Typically, he’ll resolve to publish both of them, understanding he can bully his method to the rim towards a guard or use his footwork to get to the rim towards a giant.
Under is a first-rate instance of Flagg placing collectively nearly all of those expertise into one clip. He’ll seize this rebound towards Notre Dame and push out in transition. He instantly sees what he considers to be a mismatch, so he rejects a possible Khaman Maluach ball display and hits a nasty right-to-left crossover to drive. Notre Dame decides to change its huge onto Flagg as Maluach makes an attempt to seal the guard, so Flagg decides to go to work on the block as an alternative. He crops on his proper foot, reverse pivots, then takes a giant step together with his left foot and lowers his shoulder into 6-foot-10, 250-pound huge man Kebba Njie and creates some house for a hook end.
Flagg is the contact initiator more often than not, which is unsurprising given his motor and competitiveness. Nonetheless, Flagg additionally has labored arduous on his steadiness and coordination over the previous yr. The advance in Flagg’s footwork is the most important space that has allowed him to take a leap. He’s all the time been strong with these little step-throughs, pivots and gathers, however he’s develop into much more adept at them during the last month as the sport has slowed down for him.
Under is one other instance from that 42-point explosion, the place Flagg comes down the court docket, takes a display and will get a change onto undersized Notre Dame guard Markus Burton. As guard Sion James rolls to the nook following his display for Flagg, his man, Tae Davis, sags off him and helps onto Flagg to account for the 6-foot Burton. From there, Flagg soar stops, reverse pivots, then strides out to get unfastened for a lovely 8-foot floater coming from his proper hand off his proper foot.
Persistently, Flagg is utilizing his mixture of measurement, coordination, steadiness and explosiveness to get unfastened. Duke coach Jon Scheyer deserves a number of credit score right here, too. He has been working plenty of these sorts of actions to get Flagg into advantageous mismatch conditions. Early on, towards Kentucky and Kansas, the offense would lavatory down a bit as a result of Flagg was nonetheless studying find out how to separate from his man, find out how to learn defenses and find out how to play by contact. However Duke has received 12 straight video games (and owns the fourth-best offense within the nation per KenPom’s adjusted effectivity metric) partly due to these early rising pains that included a decent five-point loss to Kentucky and a fair harder three-point loss to Kansas.
Past the pivots and reverse pivots, although, Flagg additionally showcases actual consolation in NBA-level units. Under is an Iverson idea that NBA groups run often, particularly early in quarters to get their greatest gamers appears. Tyrese Proctor Iverson cuts round to the left facet of the court docket earlier than Flagg does the identical to the precise facet. He catches a cross-screen from Maluach, however Pitt’s Cam Corhen is ready to battle by it and keep in entrance, so Flagg right-hand drives, stops, hits a behind-the-back crossover, then steps again for a lovely midrange jumper over Corhen. NBA groups will run actions like this for Flagg, and this gives clear proof that he will be immensely profitable in them.
This improved scoring potential additionally has led to extra passing angles being open for Flagg. He’s all the time had good imaginative and prescient and has been unselfish, however as defenders promote out much more to cease him by loading up the paint, he’s been capable of finding simpler kickouts and passes to his teammates. Right here’s one other full instance of the Flagg expertise from the Boston Faculty sport, as he’ll anticipate a pocket cross to a rolling Chad Venning, swat his shot on the rim, get the ball on the prime of the important thing, then survey the protection. That is an very simple cross, however take a look at how he manipulates the defender on the left wing together with his eyes, making him sag into mismatch on the inside to assist his guard. Isaiah Evans instances his elevate to the wing completely, and Flagg hits him for a large open 3. It’s delicate however vital stuff that reveals he understands find out how to make defenders do what he needs them to do.
Flagg additionally has dropped his turnover quantity to about 2.2 per sport over his final 11 video games. He’s constantly making the precise reads, and he’ll additionally make reads past the conventional reversals for assists. Right here’s one towards Miami the place he assaults the paint off a swing cross to the nook. He jumps within the air and feels the Miami assist defender rotate to him on the rim, so he jumps to create an angle for his cross. As he jumps, take a look at how he scans the complete court docket within the air. He begins within the weakside nook earlier than twisting to the alternative wing and discovering an open shooter on the identical facet in Mason Gillis.
Per Synergy, Flagg has 15 assists this yr out of ball screens, the place he’ll be requested to create a majority of his performs within the NBA. Of these 15, 13 have been him hitting a curler to the rim, with many being out of a particular set to search out both Maluach or Maliq Brown. The place Flagg is admittedly beginning to present enchancment is in his potential to look outward for kickouts along with discovering dump-offs or rolls off his drives. Certainly, Flagg is getting higher as a playmaker for others in the identical approach he’s as a playmaker for himself.
Enchancment as a shooter
The opposite huge query relating to Flagg coming into the yr was his potential to shoot, notably from 3. Over the previous two years inside Synergy’s database, together with 71 video games of competitors throughout highschool and AAU basketball, Flagg shot 33.9 % (71 of 209) from 3, a mark that isn’t notably horrible for seasons that embody a participant’s age-16 and age-17 years. Nonetheless, the place the remainder of the questions together with his taking pictures got here had been in regard to his type. He has a cool load into the shot and an irregular launch.
At Montverde, Flagg had a little bit of a pause as he caught the ball and introduced it to his taking pictures pocket, introduced the ball to the facet of his head and would end very excessive. He clearly has contact as a shooter, however the mechanics and the way in which his arms loaded into the shot at the least made scouts marvel if mechanical tweaks can be essential to iron out his consistency.
Certainly, Flagg has made some tweaks to the jumper. First, his shot prep is best, and he’s eliminated that little hitch as he brings the ball into the taking pictures pocket. Second, he’s introduced his taking pictures pocket farther away from his face and heightened the discharge level a bit, and the shot appears a lot cleaner as a complete. Right here’s a shot from the current sport towards Pittsburgh the place he drills one off motion, as he comes off a down display to the highest of the important thing, catches and fires easily in a single movement the way in which scouts wish to see.
Flagg began the season poorly from 3 as he labored to search out his mechanics, hitting simply 22.2 % of his 3s over his first 10 video games. However over his final eight video games, he’s made 50 % from distance, and his total 3-point share has jumped to over 34 %. In complete, he’s made 37 % of his 3s off the catch. Whereas there’s actual cause to be skeptical that Flagg is a professional shooter proper now, his mechanical tweaks along with this run of assured taking pictures from behind the arc has given NBA evaluators actual confidence there’s lots to work with in regard to Flagg’s taking pictures. Sooner or later, it feels probably he’ll develop into at the least a strong shooter.
Tying the 2 sections above collectively, finally the most important query scouts had about Flagg getting into the yr was whether or not he had potential to be a No. 1 choice on offense after additional growth within the NBA. Is there a world the place he might develop into the type of big-wing, mismatch-nightmare shot creator who leads a workforce to a title? Sources throughout the league will provide combined solutions on in the event that they finally imagine he will be that type of participant, however most scouts throughout the league who’ve seen Duke will inform you they imagine Flagg has a probability to develop into that type of participant down the highway.
His play this yr on offense has lifted his inventory as a result of there’s extra hope that Flagg generally is a No. 1 choice. And even when groups find yourself eager to pair an elite guard or elite huge shot creator with him to ballast his offense, Flagg’s sport thus far signifies that he’ll haven’t any points being a No. 2 choice on a really nice workforce.
The best method to clarify scouts’ perspective on Flagg is that this: His ceiling is sort of excessive, however he additionally has an extremely excessive flooring, probably greater than any No. 1 decide who has entered the NBA in a very long time. That’s as a result of…
There are few different questions
Given his enchancment on offense, it’s arduous to search out the flaw in Flagg’s profile.
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Defensively, Flagg is a wonderful participant. He in all probability hasn’t been the really dominant defensive participant he showcased himself to be at instances in highschool, however he’s superb. He communicates loudly and makes certain his teammates know the place he’s and what’s coming for them. He diagnoses his reads rotationally and scrambles effectively. He rebounds effectively for his place and likewise rebounds out of his space. Typically, Flagg will get overly aggressive and shut out too closely, however he all the time fights again in restoration and performs arduous. He’s an elite playmaker patrolling the again line to guard the rim in last-ditch moments, and he has elite hand-eye coordination that permits him to shoot passing lanes and infrequently get residence with out playing too closely.
One notice from scouts on Flagg’s protection has been that they query whether or not he’ll be an elite on-ball defender within the NBA. He doesn’t appear to flip his hips notably rapidly and tends to play a bit excessive in his stance. He’s not rigid, however he doesn’t fairly show the identical flexibility preventing by screens that the perfect wing defenders within the league equivalent to Houston’s Amen Thompson, New Orleans’ Herb Jones and others do. Flagg will probably be efficient on the ball as a result of he competes, however he is likely to be extra of a participant who excels patrolling house and taking part in towards the opposing workforce’s worst offensive participant in order that he will help off his man and fly round to wreak havoc.
Greater than something although, the intel on Flagg is among the many greatest I’ve ever gotten on a prospect. He comes from a wonderful household in Maine that helps him and has instilled an immense stage of competitiveness inside him. He works extremely arduous. His basketball character is off the charts. All he cares about is profitable video games. And he lifts the extent of everybody he’s round each in apply and video games due to how arduous he performs. After I talked to Scheyer within the preseason, he stated his favourite factor Flagg has delivered to Duke is “straight up competitiveness.”
“Every day,” Scheyer stated. “In each drill, in each breakdown, in each five-on-five. He is aware of no different approach. It’s an incredible high quality to see and coach.”
Flagg is the precise participant groups search for on the prime of the draft. He won’t essentially be on Victor Wembanyama’s stage as a can’t-miss participant, however he’s clearly the type of Tier One prospect each workforce would love to accumulate. His presence is why we’ve already began to see a race for the underside within the NBA a lot sooner than regular, with the Brooklyn Nets buying and selling away a few of their greatest gamers earlier than the calendar turned to 2025 and the Washington Wizards having no concern working out youngsters of their beginning lineup all season. Past Harper, I’ve some questions on how glad a majority of those groups will probably be to return away with comfort prizes within the class.
However Flagg is a participant value tanking for, even when the perfect odds any group can have is a 14 % probability on draft lottery evening.
(Prime picture of Cooper Flagg: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Pictures)