The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are nonetheless standing, however they’ve nonetheless acquired to cope with some heavyweights able to lastly add some new fingerprints to the Lombardi Trophy.
With the convention championship video games upon us, it’s nonetheless all in regards to the Chiefs’ quest to develop into the primary three-peat Tremendous Bowl winners. They’re simply two wins away from soccer immortality, however becoming a member of them within the NFL’s Last 4 are a pair of opponents determined for a title and a brand new squad desirous to crash the get together.
There’s a 50-50 probability to get a Tremendous Bowl rematch. If the 2 hosts win this weekend, the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will enact a second take of Tremendous Bowl LVII. If it’s the 2 highway winners, although, the Buffalo Payments and Washington Commanders will renew acquaintances from a lifetime in the past at Tremendous Bowl XXVI.
As soon as once more, The Athletic has solicited a panel of coaches and executives from across the league to foretell the winners. As a reminder, picks weren’t solicited from anybody within the panel if their group is concerned in one of many video games this weekend.
No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET Sunday
Knowledgeable picks: Eagles 9, Commanders 3
Jayden Daniels is the sixth rookie quarterback to guide his group to a convention championship recreation, and he’ll attempt to be the primary to win one.
His journey has been essentially the most spectacular, albeit as a consequence of a benefit that may make his subsequent job all of the extra daunting. The earlier 5 rookie QBs — Shaun King (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1999), Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers, 2004), Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens, 2008), Mark Sanchez (New York Jets, 2009), Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers, 2022) — all acquired this far with a protection that was ranked within the high three in factors allowed. Roethlisberger, Sanchez and Purdy did it with No. 1 defenses.
Daniels has led the Commanders to the NFC title recreation with the backing of the No. 18 protection within the league.
“The quarterback goes to proceed to be the X-factor till groups can sit down and actually examine the way to assault him,” a personnel government stated. “He seems completely comfy and in command. He’s not rattled. He understands the place the pressures are going to come back from. Groups haven’t been capable of stress or rattle him due to his capability to run. That’s been an enormous neutralizer.”
Daniels has led 11 scoring drives on 16 playoff possessions, excluding kneeldowns. They’ve punted as soon as and haven’t dedicated a turnover. Their three turnovers on downs and a missed subject objective had been all inside their opponents’ 30-yard line, so Daniels has pushed the Commanders into scoring vary on a cool 93.8 p.c of their possessions.
They’re averaging 31.3 factors per outing throughout their seven-game profitable streak, together with a 36-33 victory towards the Eagles in Week 16.
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“The Commanders are enjoying nice, however in some unspecified time in the future that run has to come back to an finish, proper?” the chief added. “(Head coach Dan Quinn) is particular. The quarterback is particular. (However the Eagles’) operating recreation is simply too robust.”
The Eagles averaged 218.5 speeding yards as they break up the season collection with their NFC East rivals, in order that they’ve confirmed they’ll run the ball on the Commanders. With Saquon Barkley’s manufacturing all season and into the playoffs, it’d be silly to anticipate some other kind of efficiency.
However will it matter? Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been shaky in his two video games since getting back from the concussion that he suffered within the loss to Washington. Hurts is 28-of-41 passing for 259 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions within the playoffs, and he’s added 106 yards and a rating on the bottom. However these inefficiencies have led to meager showings from wideouts A.J. Brown (three receptions, 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight receptions, 76 yards).
“I don’t suppose Jalen can beat them throwing the ball,” an government stated. “But when (Barkley and Hurts) are each going within the operating recreation, they’re actually, actually arduous to beat. If Washington can cease (Barkley), they’ve an opportunity.”
The Eagles have been profitable, so it’s not an issue, they usually’re efficient in key conditions. But when they don’t set up themselves Sunday because the aggressor, the Commanders’ confidence will proceed to develop. They’ve been unflappable in late conditions, most lately of their late wild-card win towards the Buccaneers, however they had been additionally clutch all through their upset of the top-seeded Lions, scoring on 4-of-5 possessions (with the exception being a missed subject objective) after Detroit scored.
The Eagles have the very best offensive line remaining within the playoffs, and Hurts must reap the benefits of it. Whereas they’ve carried their weight within the operating recreation, Hurts took seven sacks and a security within the divisional spherical towards the Los Angeles Rams. He hasn’t seen some open receivers, which may once more be because of the injury-related absence.
“(The Eagles are) a way more full group,” a coach stated. “If the QB takes care of it and avoids taking seven sacks, together with a security, I like their probabilities of profitable large.”
The sport will doubtless be determined by fourth-down conversions and takeaways. The Commanders are 6-of-9 on fourth down within the postseason, a carryover from going 20-of-23 through the common season, and that was an enormous catalyst in each of their victories. The Eagles are 2-for-2 within the playoffs and went 19-of-27 through the season, as they’ve ridden Hurts’ tush push to extra success.
Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, whose group allowed the second-fewest factors within the league within the common season, would possibly attempt to get inventive on first and second all the way down to decelerate Daniels’ reads and drive the Commanders into long-yardage conditions that might take fourth down off the board.
“Fangio will add a wrinkle or two to confuse Daniels,” an government stated.
The Eagles have 30 takeaways over their final 13 video games, together with a 6-0 edge within the turnover battle within the playoffs. They pressured two essential fumbles within the fourth quarter towards the Rams.
The Commanders even have a 6-0 benefit in turnovers within the playoffs after snagging 5 takeaways towards the Lions. They usually overcame a 5-2 takeaway margin 5 weeks in the past to beat the Eagles.
“This recreation may very well be a fantastic one,” a coach stated.
Coach Andy Reid’s Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are 3-0 towards coach Sean McDermott’s Buffalo Payments within the playoffs. (Kevin Sabitus / Getty Pictures)
No. 2 Buffalo Payments (13-4) at No. 1 Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (15-2)
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Knowledgeable picks: Chiefs 7, Payments 6
This has been the NFL’s most fun rivalry over the previous half-decade, and it fittingly drew essentially the most tightly contested vote through the playoffs from our panel.
The end result boils all the way down to a key dedication: Is Patrick Mahomes inevitable, or has Josh Allen develop into invincible?
The Chiefs have received all three playoff conferences with the Payments over the previous 4 years, together with the AFC Championship Recreation following the 2020 season. However since 2021, the Payments have gone 4-0 towards the Chiefs in regular-season conferences.
It’s not that the Chiefs have been decisively higher than the Payments as each organizations rose to prominence. But it surely’s plain the Chiefs have displayed the superior clutch gene as a result of they’ve swept the matchups on the extra necessary stage.
“Needs to be an outstanding back-and-forth recreation,” a coach stated. “It’ll go all the way down to the wire.”
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The Chiefs received final yr within the divisional spherical, 27-24, due to operating again Isiah Pacheco’s decisive 4-yard landing run on the second play of the fourth quarter. Allen and the offense failed to attain over their last three possessions, together with Tyler Bass’ missed 44-yard subject objective with 1:43 remaining.
Three years in the past, Allen walked off the sphere with 13 seconds to play and a 36-33 lead in his pocket. He by no means touched the ball once more, because the Chiefs received in time beyond regulation.
“Though I believe this may very well be the yr Buffalo will get over the hump, I simply can’t get previous the historical past,” one other coach stated. “The Chiefs protection would be the distinction and drive just a few key turnovers.”
The Chiefs have been barely off all season, evidenced by a number of shut calls and essential errors by their opponents. However that was the case in 2023, as properly, they usually cruised within the postseason. Their decisive victory final week towards the Houston Texans, who managed practically each important statistical class, supplied extra proof the Chiefs can deal with their opposition’s finest shot and nonetheless advance.
In spite of everything, the Chiefs have received 16 consecutive video games that had been determined by one possession.
“I don’t have an excellent motive (to choose the Payments) aside from percentages,” an government stated. “(The Chiefs) can’t maintain profitable like this, can they? The Payments have been higher than the groups the Chiefs have been enjoying.”
When two groups know one another so properly and have grown accustomed to assembly in such a high-stakes surroundings, the matchups on paper may not carry as a lot weight. It’s extra about having a really feel for the sport, making acceptable changes and avoiding season-crushing errors.
“The (Chiefs) protection is healthier, and I can’t see Mahomes dropping at dwelling towards a protection that may’t deny the ball,” one other coach stated.
These intestine reactions can go the opposite manner, too.
“This Buffalo group appears like they’re essentially the most related group and can do something to win,” one other government stated.
A coach added, “It’s Josh Allen’s yr.”
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; pictures: Mitchell Leff, Bryan Bennett and Kara Durrette / Getty Pictures)