The Athletic’s debate collection options two writers breaking down a subject. On this version, Sabreena Service provider and Ben Pickman debate which groups are able to profitable the nationwide championship.
Ben Pickman: We’re lower than two weeks away from Choice Sunday and the entire world caring about seed strains, bracket attracts and Cinderellas. Earlier than March Insanity begins, let’s endure an train to foretell the groups we predict have a shot at profitable this 12 months’s nationwide title earlier than seeing the matchups. We’ve been speaking in regards to the parity throughout the ladies’s basketball panorama all through the season. 4 groups have been No. 1 within the AP ballot, tying the document most not too long ago set in 2021.
Champions usually have commonalities. Over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments, just one winner (Notre Dame in 2017-18) has been outdoors the top-10 NET score. Solely two champions, that Combating Irish crew and 2016-17 South Carolina, have been outdoors the top-10 in defensive score.
So, Sabreena, what number of groups do you assume have a respectable probability at chopping down the nets come the night of April 7?
Sabreena Service provider: There are 5 groups I can envision holding that trophy — as in, I don’t should stretch my creativeness to see any of those groups profitable six video games within the NCAA Match.
UConn is the betting favourite, and it’s the crew with essentially the most further upside within the event as a result of the Huskies don’t play their stars a ton through the common season. Texas is the AP No. 1 crew and elite on each ends of the ground. USC has one of the best participant within the nation, plus an impressive protection. Notre Dame has a dominant backcourt and beat every of the earlier three groups through the common season.
My shakiest inner-circle nationwide title alternative might be South Carolina.
Pickman: Oooh! Why do you say that?
Service provider: The Gamecocks’ frontcourt nonetheless considerations me. With out Ashlyn Watkins, they’re a bit skinny within the submit and a bit small. Taller facilities have given them problem, together with the Taylor Jones/Kyla Oldacre duo from Texas, Kentucky’s Clara Strack, and even UConn’s Jana El Alfy in spurts. That’s a extra important weak spot than the opposite 4 title contenders have. Plus, Raven Johnson and Bree Corridor haven’t been as constant as final season.
Pickman: Which may be true, however South Carolina continues to be No. 1 in defensive score, in response to Her Hoop Stats. The Gamecocks function an skilled backcourt and coach, and so they’re environment friendly on offense. Although their frontcourt won’t be pretty much as good as final 12 months (or earlier years), it’s additionally notable that South Carolina is within the nation’s high 15 in turnovers per recreation (averaging simply 12), and is sixth, per HHS, in foul charge. Avoiding turnovers and fouls makes a recipe for fulfillment in March.
“No ma’am,” @supremenia (positively) pic.twitter.com/e9sH7SVLyQ
— South Carolina Girls’s Basketball (@GamecockWBB) March 2, 2025
Service provider: All these parts push South Carolina into Tier 1, but when I needed to choose a Closing 4 with out trying on the bracket, the Gamecocks could be on the skin trying in.
Do you assume I’m being too restrictive? Does anybody else warrant title consideration for you?
Pickman: I’ve one other college on my title shortlist. UCLA spent essentially the most weeks (12) at No. 1 this season. They’re within the high 5 in offensive and defensive score; they’ve arguably essentially the most dominant submit participant within the nation in Lauren Betts; and so they boast expertise within the backcourt. I picked the Bruins to win the title final 12 months for comparable causes. On paper, but once more, they’ve the résumé of a nationwide title contender.
Service provider: On paper, I agree with you about UCLA, however the Bruins don’t come by means of in large video games. Beating South Carolina earlier within the 12 months instructed that they had turned a nook, however they completed the season in lower than inspiring trend and had been basically noncompetitive of their regular-season finale in opposition to USC — which doubled because the Massive Ten title recreation.
GO DEEPER
Acquainted demons hang-out UCLA in one other loss to USC
Pickman: All honest. Maybe I’m holding on to their victory over South Carolina an excessive amount of. Plus, after the loss to USC, coach Cori Shut appeared to acknowledge the necessity for some form of shakeup in crucial video games. Possibly I’m betting on them performing some soul-searching within the leadup to the NCAA Match. I may, but once more, look silly in a month.
LSU was on my quick title contender listing as of two weeks in the past, however losses to Alabama and Ole Miss (albeit the latter with out Flau’jae Johnson) have dampened my expectations. Johnson is out by means of the SEC event, which provides me pause. And although LSU is No. 2 nationally in free throw makes an attempt, its backcourt — aside from Johnson — is inexperienced and has been inconsistent all year long.
Service provider: I’d be shocked if the Tigers even made the Closing 4 as a result of they rely a lot on their high three gamers. Kim Mulkey’s monitor document within the NCAA Match is spectacular, however I don’t assume that is the 12 months she provides one other banner to her assortment.
Pickman: Even with out LSU, there is perhaps greater than 10 groups that would make the Closing 4. Historical past says that in contrast to nationwide champions, Closing 4 members might be elite at both offense or protection and wrestle on the opposite finish of the ground. (Assume Iowa of the previous two seasons and Oregon in 2018-19.) TCU falls into that bucket for me, because the Horned Frogs are No. 2 in offensive score and No. 35 in defensive score. They’re the oldest crew within the nation, high 10 in blocks and turnovers per recreation and No. 1 in 3-pointers made. It’s exhausting to think about the Horned Frogs going from profitable their first Massive 12 title to profitable a nationwide title — TCU has by no means even made a Candy 16, not to mention Closing 4 — however this has been a historic 12 months for this system.
Service provider: So long as we’re with regards to lengthy pictures, one other Massive 12 crew pursuits me by being elite on one finish of the ground. That’s West Virginia. “Press” Virginia has the nation’s finest protection due to the Mountaineers’ full-court stress. With the quick turnaround of the NCAA Match, this crew may produce upsets. We noticed West Virginia practically take down Caitlin Clark’s Hawkeyes in Iowa Metropolis through the 2024 second spherical, and the protection has solely gotten stouter within the interim. Relying on the draw — as a result of large facilities typically wreck them — the Mountaineers may make some noise.
🌟 – 🌟#HailWV pic.twitter.com/vFwIuhFAYc
— WVU Girls’s Basketball (@WVUWBB) March 4, 2025
Pickman: We agree that Mountaineers may pull off some upsets early within the bracket. Nevertheless, of the groups which have made the final 5 Closing Fours and had a big offense-defense disparity, solely Arizona in 2020-21 has made it as a defense-first crew.
Service provider: Possibly the groups we must always regulate are Florida State and Vanderbilt. We’ve already seen Ta’Niya Latson obliterate the protection of one in every of our top-tier groups (Notre Dame) inside the final week, and Mikayla Blakes put up 50-plus factors twice on SEC opponents. The Seminoles are extra skilled within the NCAA Match, so this could possibly be the 12 months they break by means of and win a recreation or extra.
Pickman: For FSU, and nearly everybody else, the draw is crucial. No person is as dominant as South Carolina was a season in the past. That’s what is going to make this 12 months’s event so thrilling.
(Photograph: Joe Buglewicz / Getty Photos)