The lads’s basketball choice committee had a simple job on the high of the bracket this 12 months. The 2025 NCAA Match may need the most effective assortment of No. 1 seeds in March Insanity historical past.
By the numbers, it’s the greatest, a minimum of in faculty basketball’s superior analytics period, which dates to 1997, when Ken Pomeroy’s eponymous web site started monitoring faculty basketball knowledge. This 12 months’s 4 No. 1 seeds — Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida — are all above 35 in adjusted effectivity margin. (Effectivity margin is set by factors scored and allowed per 100 possessions and adjusted for schedule.) In no different 12 months have even two groups completed above 35. The No. 1 seeds’ internet scores add as much as 144.81; final 12 months’s No. 1 seeds’ pre-tourney internet scores totaled 117.7, and do not forget that subject had two actually dominant groups on the high in UConn and Purdue.
Two causes for that dominance: a funneling of the most effective mid-major gamers to high-major packages by way of the switch portal, and an all-time season of offensive effectivity throughout the nation, with the groups on the high scoring at historic charges.
That’s why it’s sensible to principally keep away from using mid-majors too far. We are going to look again finally 12 months’s event as an inflection level in faculty basketball historical past: No true mid-major superior previous the second spherical. San Diego State (Mountain West) and Gonzaga (WCC) did, however their assets are nearer to high-major packages than the colleges with which they share a convention. We’re solely two years faraway from each Florida Atlantic and San Diego State reaching the Last 4, however have a look at what has occurred to their rosters since:
• FAU’s total rotation with eligibility remaining is elsewhere, with Alijah Martin (Florida) and Vlad Goldin (Michigan) taking part in key roles on two extremely seeded groups.
• Stars on that San Diego State group nonetheless left in faculty embody Lamont Butler (now at Kentucky) and Micah Parrish (Ohio State).
Learning tourney historical past is at all times an excellent information to filling out your bracket, and though it is a new period, this rule ought to maintain true: Within the years with actually elite groups close to the highest — utilizing analytics because the measuring stick — a No. 1 seed normally wins the title. A No. 1 seed has additionally received six of the final seven tournaments.
I’m nearly embarrassed at how chalk I went with my picks, however I’ve been writing all 12 months about how the highest tier of school basketball was traditionally good, and it’s laborious to not let that information affect my picks. My prediction is we’ll find yourself with one of many chalkiest NCAA Tournaments ever. That may not make for as enjoyable of a primary weekend, however the matchups within the second weekend and on the Last 4 might be epic.
South Area
• Michigan-UC San Diego is perhaps one of the fascinating matchups of the Spherical of 64. Michigan’s dread all season has been turnovers, and the Tritons rank second in Division I in defensive turnover price. The one difficulty for UC San Diego is its small frontcourt. Michigan is big up entrance with 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. The Tritons will double the put up, however Michigan is used to coping with that, and Wolf is harmful diving to the basket. Dusty Might also has strong choices for coping with UC San Diego star Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones between Wolf and Rubin Jones. Earlier than the bracket was launched, I used to be fairly certain I’d go together with the Tritons, however the Wolverines may simply have an excessive amount of up entrance. Anticipate this betting line to be a small one — Michigan is ranked twenty fifth at KenPom, UC San Diego thirty sixth — so for those who’re searching for an upset decide that is smart on this area, it is a great spot.
• Louisville, which misplaced solely two video games in convention play, is a little bit of a shock right here on the No. 8 line, however that’s how unhealthy the ACC was this 12 months. The Playing cards may wrestle with Bluejays large man Ryan Kalkbrenner, however Creighton wants environment friendly manufacturing from Steven Ashworth, and Louisville’s Chucky Hepburn is a stopper. Whoever wins that matchup will win the sport. Hepburn may be a troublesome matchup for Auburn within the second spherical; guards who excel in pick-and-roll conditions have given the Tigers some hassle. If you wish to fade the No. 1 seed, which has struggled defensively currently (rating forty seventh within the final three weeks, per Bart Torvik), then that is the primary spot to think about the upset. I’m simply unsure the Playing cards have the our bodies up entrance to take care of nationwide participant of the 12 months candidate Johni Broome.
• Yale might be a classy upset decide after knocking off Auburn a 12 months in the past, however keep in mind Danny Wolf was on that group and is now at Michigan. The Aggies will doubtless face Wolf within the second spherical, and though Texas A&M’s means to use stress and pressure turnovers is worrisome, Michigan has the our bodies to hold on the glass. It’s important to rebound to beat the Aggies, and the Wolverines will get it performed.
• Iowa State was a group thought of Last 4-level good within the opening months of the season, however this isn’t the identical group. Keshon Gilbert, who was anticipated to be the Cyclones’ greatest participant this 12 months, is finished for the season, coach T.J. Otzelberger introduced Sunday. The Cyclones have good depth, however they had been laboring down the stretch, shedding 4 of their final seven. Ole Miss coach Chris Beard is acquainted with the Cyclones from his time within the Large 12, and his Rebels ought to have the ability to deal with some physicality after taking part in within the SEC. A mini-upset right here, with the Rebels shifting on to the Candy 16.
• New Mexico is one other upset decide I thought of, however the way in which to beat the Lobos is with gifted guards who can rating off the bounce. Marquette’s Kam Jones is perhaps higher at that than anybody in America.
• Michigan State has the simplest path to the Candy 16 of any No. 2 seed. To beat Auburn, you want guards who can get to the rim and evade Broome, who needs to show his hips and meet you on the basket to dam your shot. That’s a harmful technique towards speedy guards like Jase Richardson and Jeremy Fears. I’m tempted to choose the Spartans or Wolverines to knock off Auburn as a result of the Tigers have misplaced a few of their magic these previous couple of weeks, however a bit of humility may simply be what Auburn wanted to refocus.
West Area
• Final 12 months the West bought wacky, and it may occur once more this 12 months. Florida, Maryland and St. John’s had been all groups I thought of placing within the Last 4 earlier than the bracket was launched, however I made a decision over the previous couple of weeks to choose Florida as my champ, and I’m sticking with that decide. The Gators, very like UConn in 2024, have the toughest path, however I’m a believer in selecting what you imagine is the most effective group. That stated, the considered seeing UConn within the second spherical is horrifying, as is assembly Maryland’s Crab 5 within the Candy 16, and you may argue St. John’s/Texas Tech is the most effective No. 2/No. 3 seed combo in any area.
• Memphis received the AAC championship with out third-leading scorer Tyrese Hunter. His unclear standing makes me hesitant to choose the Tigers to go too far. The predictive metrics don’t love Memphis this 12 months (No. 51 at KenPom), and Hunter has the most effective plus-minus numbers on the group, per CBB Analytics. Mountain West champ Colorado State, winner of 10 in a row, is likely one of the hottest groups within the nation and has top-of-the-line wings within the nation in Nique Clifford. His matchup with PJ Haggerty will likely be a enjoyable one. The Rams may find yourself betting favorites, and the rationale I like them is Rashaan Mbemba has the energy to match up with Memphis large man Dain Dainja.
• Drake will likely be a classy upset decide, and for good purpose. The Bulldogs are 3-0 towards high-major groups this 12 months, Ben McCollum is likely one of the greatest coaches in faculty basketball, and he has Bennett Stirtz, whom a rival Missouri Valley coach lately advised me is the most effective guard within the nation. The Tigers depend on turnovers and like to play quick; McCollum’s groups at all times management the tempo. He additionally hasn’t misplaced within the first spherical of an NCAA Match since 2018. Granted, that’s the Division II event, but it surely’s truly tougher to get out of the primary spherical in D-II as a result of its bracket is break up into eight areas by geography, which means the underside (No. 8) seed might be a top-20 group for those who occur to be in a stacked area.
• Texas Tech might be upset-prone relying on well being. Beginning guard Probability McMillian and beginning ahead Darrion Williams sat out the Large 12 semis. I’d anticipate Williams to be again for the event, however not so certain on McMillian. I’d be tempted to place Drake within the Candy 16, however right here’s one purpose to imagine in Texas Tech: Coach Grant McCasland is certainly one of McCollum’s greatest mates and isn’t going to miss Drake. The truth is, these groups performed a secret scrimmage within the preseason — received by Texas Tech — so the Pink Raiders already know the way good Drake is. Additionally, JT Toppin is a troublesome matchup for a smaller entrance line.
• Arkansas-Kansas is one other matchup that happened within the preseason. The Razorbacks received that one comfortably, but it surely was in Fayetteville and the Jayhawks had been with out veteran large man Hunter Dickinson. Although this isn’t the standard Kansas group, it was taking part in higher down the stretch, and Arkansas might be out of sync attempting to work Boogie Fland again into the lineup from a hand harm that sidelined him for 2 months.
• Kansas-St. John’s is one other sport with an ideal storyline. Two years in the past, Invoice Self recruited Dickinson out of the portal, and his addition pushed out Zuby Ejiofor, who has emerged as a star for the Johnnies. Anticipate this sport to go very like Kansas’ latest loss at Houston. Kansas turned the ball over too typically towards the Cougars, and it’ll do it once more in a low-scoring sport that St. John’s will win.
• The Candy 16 on this area needs to be superior. Maryland will play with Florida for about half-hour however finally put on down towards the deepest entrance line in faculty basketball. St. John’s is likely one of the few opponents that may give Texas Tech a tough time discovering advantageous matchups for JT Toppin and Darrion Williams. If the Pink Raiders get scorching from 3, they might pull off the upset. They had been the one group to beat Houston in Large 12 play, however their well being is a priority.
• This units up a regional closing that will likely be must-watch tv, with Florida star Walter Clayton dealing with his previous coach Rick Pitino — Clayton began his profession at Iona — and one of many sport’s all-time greatest coaches squaring off towards certainly one of its greatest younger ones, Todd Golden. The Gators needs to be ready from the three video games they performed towards one other blue-collar group with a dominant protection in Tennessee. (Florida received two of three.) St. John’s is perhaps the protection greatest geared up to gradual the Gators, however Florida’s 3-point taking pictures would be the distinction.
East Area
• Oregon-Liberty is likely one of the few spots the place I went with an upset. Like Drake, Liberty can management the tempo and is likely one of the greatest 3-point taking pictures groups within the nation. Oregon prefers to play with tempo. It’s not normally an excellent technique to wager towards Geese coach Dana Altman in March, however Ritchie McKay is likely one of the mid-major degree’s greatest coaches, and that is the most effective group he’s taken to the event since 2019 when Liberty upset Mississippi State within the first spherical.
• VCU is a regarding matchup for BYU. It’s going to take a terrific defensive group to knock off the Cougars, and that’s what VCU is. However BYU was on a roll lately till it misplaced by 20 to Houston within the Large 12 semis, and I’m simply going to chalk that as much as the very fact taking part in Houston is in contrast to taking part in anybody else in faculty basketball. Underneath first-year coach Kevin Younger, BYU has top-of-the-line offenses within the nation and has been taking part in with a ton of confidence.
• Wisconsin-BYU might be one of the entertaining video games of the event. Each groups shoot plenty of 3s, play with lovely ball motion and are strong however not elite on the defensive finish. The Badgers are the marginally higher group and fear about BYU’s means to decelerate John Tonje, however I’ve to choose some type of upset, and BYU has been taking part in extra like a top-three seed as of late. That is near a coin flip.
• Saint Mary’s may give Alabama points if it might management the tempo, however the Gaels would want to hit double-digit 3s to maintain up. They haven’t performed that since Jan. 11.
• If you wish to decide Duke to get upset, the Candy 16 is perhaps an honest spot. Duke beat Arizona by 14 in Tucson earlier this season, however the Wildcats have improved as a lot as anybody since November, principally due to the emergence of Henri Veesaar. The Wildcats’ bigs are athletic sufficient to a minimum of match up with Cooper Flagg, however it will take Caleb Love’s going nuclear to tug off the upset. I’m tempted however in the end an excessive amount of of a believer on this Duke group.
• Talking of Duke, some may fade the Blue Devils due to the weak ACC they dominated. Let me remind you that Gonzaga has made the nationwide championship sport twice popping out of the West Coast Convention. If something, the simpler schedule helped Jon Scheyer discover one other asset. I’m unsure he would have experimented with taking part in freshman sharpshooter Isaiah Evans if Duke was taking part in in a league just like the SEC.
• Duke-Alabama might be one other nice Elite Eight sport. My fear for the Crimson Tide is Grant Nelson’s well being. Nelson injured his knee towards Florida within the SEC event semifinals, and Alabama will want him at 100% to knock off Duke. The Crimson Tide are one other group with the scale and athleticism up entrance to take care of the Blue Devils, however Duke wing Kon Knueppel might be a matchup drawback. The dimensions and energy of Sion James may additionally give Crimson Tide main scorer Mark Sears some points. I wouldn’t blame anybody for choosing Alabama to get again to the Last 4, however Duke and Florida had been the 2 groups I knew pre-bracket I used to be taking a minimum of to the Last 4, and I’m not budging off that technique.
Midwest Area
• Houston can’t love the concept of seeing Gonzaga, No. 9 at KenPom, within the second spherical. The Zags have made 9 consecutive Candy 16s and at all times appear to be peaking in March. However the Zags misplaced to Saint Mary’s twice in low-possession video games, and Houston has taken its elite protection to a different degree.
• My buddy Seth Davis took Excessive Level and McNeese within the Spherical of 64 on this area, and I used to be tempted to do the identical. Will Wade’s Cowboys performed Alabama and Mississippi State shut within the nonconference, and the expertise hole isn’t going to be that large towards Clemson. I’m going with Excessive Level for just a few causes. Excessive Level has top-of-the-line offenses on the mid-major degree. The Panthers, coached by former Creighton assistant Alan Huss, make 57.4 % of their 2s, and Purdue has struggled defensively contained in the arc this 12 months with out Zach Edey, rating 350th out of 364 D-I groups in 2-point share protection. The well being of Fletcher Loyer, who injured his elbow within the Boilermakers’ Large Ten event loss to Michigan, can be a priority. Excessive Level will get by Purdue, however I’m sticking with my rule of no mid-majors previous the second spherical.
• Illinois has been a wild journey this 12 months. Each time I begin to imagine within the Illini, they provide me good purpose to leap off the bandwagon. However they’ve been significantly better with a wholesome Tomislav Ivisic, and he was beginning to play higher till the loss to Maryland within the Large Ten quarterfinal. Kentucky, in the meantime, is limping into the event and has been injury-riddled all season. If Lamont Butler had been again to his regular self, I’d perhaps lean Kentucky, but it surely doesn’t appear to be his shoulder is ever going to be the identical.
• Tennessee was the one No. 2 seed I used to be satisfied I wouldn’t decide to make the Elite Eight a couple of week in the past, however then I watched the SEC event. The Vols’ offense appears to have new life with Jordan Gainey catching fireplace. UCLA is nice sufficient to tug off the second-round upset. We already watched the Illini nearly beat Tennessee in mid-December, when Gainey helped the Vols escape Champaign with a buzzer-beater. I wouldn’t blame somebody for falling for the Illini, however I’m betting on expertise.
• Houston-Tennessee is a Spider-Man meme Elite Eight matchup: previous rosters, legendary coaches, nice defenses and offenses that depend on shot-making guards. I simply belief Houston’s guards to constantly make pictures at a better clip. That is Kelvin Sampson’s greatest offensive group at Houston, and Milos Uzan, who starred within the Large 12 title sport, would be the distinction on this one as effectively. However if you wish to deviate from my foolish chalky methods, this is perhaps a great spot. Sampson advised me Saturday he thinks the 4 greatest SEC groups is perhaps the 4 greatest groups within the nation, so perhaps we should always take heed to him. However I’m betting on the Cougars, who will enter this event (principally) wholesome for the primary time since 2021, a 12 months after they made the Last 4.
(Photograph of Alijah Martin: James Gilbert / Getty Photos)