October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Thursday closed up +0.33 (+2.03%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed up +8.80 (+1.87%).
Sugar costs rallied sharply on Thursday because of hypothesis that the current slide in sugar costs to 4-year lows has sparked a pickup in demand. China’s June sugar imports soared by 1,435% to 420,000 MT. Additionally, President Trump final Wednesday mentioned Coca-Cola agreed to make use of cane sugar in Coke drinks offered within the US as an alternative of high-fructose corn syrup, which may increase US sugar consumption by +4.4% to 11.5 MMT from 11 MMT at the moment, based on Bloomberg Intelligence.
On Wednesday, sugar costs fell to 3-week lows because of hypothesis that India might increase its sugar exports. Bloomberg reported Monday that the nation might allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as ample monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported Monday that cumulative monsoon rain in India is 6% above regular as of July 21.
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Brazil is bearish for sugar costs. Datagro mentioned Monday that dry climate in Brazil has inspired the nation’s sugar mills to extend their cane crushing, diverting extra of the cane crush towards extra worthwhile sugar manufacturing fairly than ethanol. In line with Covrig, Brazil’s sugar mills are anticipated to crush 54% of the accessible cane within the first half of this month, doubtless including 3.2 MMT of sugar into the market.
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That will comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, based on the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA). Additionally, the ISMA reported on July 7 that India’s sugar manufacturing throughout Oct 1-Could 15 fell -17% y/y to 25.74 MMT.
Sugar costs have retreated over the previous three months, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low earlier this month and London sugar sliding to a virtually 4-year low, pushed by expectations of a sugar surplus within the 2025/26 season. On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT world sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the biggest surplus in 8 years. On Could 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by +4.7% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT, with world sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.