At the same time as agriculture, together with buy of Russian oil, has emerged as a key sticking level within the commerce talks between India and america, right here’s an fascinating reality: Commerce in farm produce between the 2 nations is definitely booming and poised to the touch a brand new report this yr.
Throughout January-June 2025, India’s imports of agricultural merchandise from the US had been, at $1,693.2 million, a whopping 49.1% greater than the $1,135.8 million for a similar six months of the final calendar yr. India’s agricultural exports to the US, too, had been up 24.1%, from $2,798.9 million in January-June 2024 to $3,472.7 million in January-June 2025 (see chart).
With US President Donald Trump doubling the tariff on import of products from India to 50 per cent on Wednesday, the affect stays to be seen, however the tendencies up to now recommend two-way farm commerce a minimum of surpassing earlier highs.
If the present development charges maintain, India’s agricultural exports to the US might high $7.7 billion, and that of the US to India could possibly be over $3.5 billion in 2025.
The US’s exports to India have been led by tree nuts — primarily almonds and pistachios — which had been valued at $1.1 billion-plus in 2024, and registering additional 42.8% annual development through the first six months of this yr.
The opposite three big-ticket objects are ethanol, soyabean oil and cotton.
Ethanol exports from the US to India, value over $420 million final yr, are principally for manufacturing alcohol-based chemical compounds, medicines and different industrial makes use of. The US desires India to open up imports of ethanol additionally for gas use, i.e. mixing with petrol and diesel. India has been resisting that, simply as a lot as it’s not permitting imports of genetically modified (GM) maize and soyabean.
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US farmers principally develop solely GM maize (corn) and soyabean. India presently permits imports of non-fuel ethanol and oil, produced from GM corn and soyabean respectively, however not the entire grain and oilseed as such.
Though the commerce negotiations between the 2 sides are caught on account of India not yielding on GM crops, US exports of each corn-derived ethanol and soyabean oil to India have posted sturdy development. The massive bounce in soyabean oil exports from the US this yr is more likely to be sustained by India’s transfer, on Could 31, to slash its import obligation from 27.5% to 16.5%. Cotton exports from the US have additionally been rising on the again of India turning right into a internet importer of the pure fibre.
India’s agricultural exports to the US are considerably extra diversified. Whereas seafood (primarily frozen shrimp) has been the highest merchandise, there are others as properly — from spices and important oils to basmati rice, processed fruits & greens and baked meals — which were doing properly, with annual cargo worth exceeding $200 million every.
It’s not clear how a lot of all these exports can be affected, particularly with the brand new Trump tariff.
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Take seafood, the place India’s exports of $2,483.8 million in 2024 was simply behind Canada ($3,956.9 million) and Chile ($3,030.1 million), and forward of Indonesia ($1,907.9 million), Vietnam ($1,790.4 million) and Ecuador ($1,616.4 million). As of now, the 50% tariff on India is above that of all these rivals: Chile (10%), Ecuador (15%), Indonesia (19%), Vietnam (20%) and Canada (35%).
Whereas seafood exports from India have remained buoyant, rising by 32.5% year-on-year in January-June, sustaining that might not be straightforward because the tariff differentials chunk. However the truth that agriculture commerce per se between India and the US is booming must be some comfort within the current scenario the place talks are at a standstill.
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