March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed down -0.11 (-0.77%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed down -0.70 (-0.17%).
Sugar costs retreated on Wednesday, with NY sugar posting a 5-year nearest-futures low. Indicators of a bigger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting costs after the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) on Tuesday raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA additionally reduce its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports.
Sugar costs had been already underneath strain from Tuesday when Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a earlier forecast of 44.5 MMT.
This newest month-long selloff in sugar knocked NY sugar costs to a 5-year nearest-futures low on Wednesday and London sugar to a 4.75-year low final Thursday, primarily because of larger sugar output in Brazil and speak of a worldwide sugar surplus. Datagro on October 21 projected that Brazil’s Middle-South 2026/27 sugar manufacturing will climb +3.9% y/y to a file 44 MMT. In associated information, BMI Group on October 13 projected a worldwide 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and Covrig Analytics on October 7 projected a worldwide 2025/26 sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.
Increased sugar output in Brazil is undercutting costs after Unica reported final Thursday that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the first half of October rose by +1.3% y/y to 2.484 MT. Additionally, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the first half of October elevated to 48.24% from 47.33% the identical time final 12 months. As well as, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by mid-October rose +0.9% y/y to 36.016 MMT.
The outlook for larger sugar exports from India is damaging for sugar costs, as considerable monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, India’s Meteorological Division reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of that date was 937.2 mm, 8% above regular, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That might comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.1 MMT, in response to the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).