Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein says

Prediction market volumes are booming in 2026, on tempo to greater than quadruple this 12 months alone and attain an estimated $1 trillion within the subsequent 4 years, based on Bernstein.

Volumes have already surged within the first few months of this 12 months, the funding financial institution wrote in a report Tuesday, with Kalshi and Polymarket, the 2 largest platforms, seeing about $60 billion in market quantity year-to-date — greater than the $51 billion in complete prediction market quantity in all of 2025.

Progress charges for the platforms rival the factitious intelligence growth, based on Financial institution of America. Analyst Julie Hoover in a be aware final week known as Kalshi one of many “quickest rising non-AI corporations” within the U.S. Weekly buying and selling quantity on Kalshi — which controls greater than 90% of the U.S. prediction market — has surged to greater than $3 billion at the moment from about $100 million a 12 months in the past, she wrote.

Whereas prediction market volumes initially jumped in 2024 across the U.S. presidential election, they finally surpassed these ranges in 2025 as sports activities, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts grew to become common.

$1 trillion by 2030

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani now estimates that complete market volumes in 2026 will attain $240 billion, a 370% improve in comparison with final 12 months. At a compound annual development charge of roughly 80% between 2025 and 2030, Chhugani sees prediction market buying and selling quantity of $1 trillion a 12 months by the beginning of the subsequent decade.  

Chhugani expects elevated regulatory readability on the federal degree will increase the potential market, and that blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies is enabling extra liquidity. The make-up of traded contracts can be prone to change, he stated.

“We count on [the] institutional market to develop round economics, enterprise and political contracts, as buyers search extra direct and discrete publicity to occasions,” he wrote. Whereas sports activities contracts make up greater than 60% of buying and selling quantity at the moment, he sees that being minimize in half by 2030. “We additionally count on hedging demand from corporates, [and] insurance coverage corporations uncovered to particular occasion dangers.”

Whereas Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the area, new names are constructing a presence. Robinhood, DraftKings and Underdog are all beginning or have already launched their very own prediction market verticals, Financial institution of America’s Hoover stated.

Public proxies

Robinhood and Coinbase International are the important thing public market proxies for the non-public prediction market corporations, Chhugani stated. Robinhood’s prediction markets hub is now a 12 months outdated, producing $350 million in annual recurring income, and accounting for some 30% of Kalshi complete quantity. The market is the digital finance platform’s fastest-growing enterprise, and will encourage Robinhood to develop its personal trade, the analyst stated. 

Whereas Chhugani’s long-range estimates assume the decision of long-term regulatory danger, within the near-term state and federal regulators and the prediction markets themselves are engaged in a pitched battle. “Authorized motion is now pending in 14 states, plus one other 4 congressional payments [are] additionally pending amid considerations round insider buying and selling,” Hoover wrote. 

Some states have begun authorized motion in opposition to prediction markets, citing their authority to control sports activities betting, whereas the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee is preventing states, claiming it has the one authority to control prediction markets. 

Nonetheless, Chhugani has religion that this would possibly not derail the multi-year outlook.

“Regardless of ongoing state-level authorized challenges, we count on platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and public proxies (HOOD, COIN) to profit from rising regulatory readability and rising alignment with federal regulators (SEC, CFTC) — a key driver of market legitimacy and mainstream adoption,” he wrote.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that features a CNBC minority funding.

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