Analysts at BNP Paribas have been fairly regular on Tesla, making the Wall Avenue agency one of many few with a bearish outlook on the inventory.
BNP Paribas has an underperform score and a $280 value goal on the inventory (in comparison with the consensus maintain score and $397.26 value goal, based on MarketBeat), primarily based on skepticism in regards to the firm’s Robotaxi and Optimus-focused plans for 2026.
BNPP analysts are very skeptical of the progress, or lack thereof, that Tesla is displaying in Robotaxi and humanoid robots. In accordance with the agency, Tesla’s Robotaxi development in Austin and San Francisco has “stagnated,” and it appears skeptical of the corporate’s enlargement into Dallas and Houston, referring to its “launches” with citation marks.
Analysts mentioned Tesla may also “require a steep ramp” to achieve the 7-city enlargement by the tip of the yr, which CEO Elon Musk promised buyers through the firm’s earlier earnings name.
“We additionally do not see a lot progress in Optimus commercialization,” analysts mentioned, referring to Musk’s different promise of increasing the corporate’s capability to construct 1 million Optimus humanoid robots per yr.
“Given Tesla’s sizable money burn this yr ($7 billion estimate by BNPP) and indications for enormous multi-year investments on the horizon tied to a TeraFab and 100 GW photo voltaic capability, the ‘stakes’ of TSLA’s demonstrated Robotaxi and Optimus progress couldn’t be greater,” analysts mentioned in a current notice.
In the meantime, analysts on the agency are bullish on home Tesla EV rival Rivian, although the corporate lags far behind Tesla. BNPP’s objectives for Rivian by the tip of the yr are milestones Tesla has already mastered.
Elon Musk has promised buyers that Tesla will greater than triple its Robotaxi protection and usher within the humanoid robotic revolution by the tip of the yr. In the meantime, Rivian’s objectives this yr appear way more attainable, so analysts at BNP Paribas are extra bullish on the struggling startup EV maker.
Rivian has a $23 value goal on its shares, 26% above the inventory’s closing value of $16.92 on Monday, April 20.
Extra EV information
The agency says that whereas it expects higher deliveries, “Rivian’s 2026 can be outlined by… the Co.’s capability to supply FSD-like ‘point-to-point’ hands-free driving by yr finish.”
Within the meantime, it says the current $1.25 billion expanded Robotaxi partnership with Uber is sufficient to push the agency’s expectations for Rivian’s inventory to $4 per share.
Throughout its Autonomy & AI Day in December, Rivian launched the Gen 3 Autonomy Pc, its third-generation compute platform, which it says can have the “main mixture of auto sensors and inference accessible in North America.”
The Gen 3 Autonomy Pc can course of 5 billion pixels per second, because of the Rivian Autonomy Processor, its proprietary silicon chip that Rivian claims is among the many first multi-chip modules utilized in high-compute automotive functions.
All Rivian car deliveries now include a 60-day trial of Autonomy+, its hands-free platform.
Analysts at BNP Paribas are bullish on home Tesla EV rival Rivian.Photograph by 400tmax on Getty Pictures
Tesla shares had a tough session on April 20, dropping greater than 2%, however the inventory remains to be up practically 10% over the previous 5 periods because it heats up heading into earnings on Wednesday, April 22.
The inventory remains to be down 10.4% yr up to now, but it surely has seen a particular uptick in current days.
Barclays analysts maintained an equal-weight score and $360 value goal on the electrical car maker, whereas TD Cowen analysts have been bullish on the inventory in separate current notes.
“Barclays believes Terafab may price within the mid-single-digit trillion-dollar vary if totally constructed out. Whereas Tesla’s capex is unlikely to ‘exponentially improve,’ an extra step up from the elevated $20B determine Tesla talked to on the final earnings name is probably going,” Barclays contends.
Barclays analysts pin the current inventory sell-off on an absence of steering in regards to the firm’s Robotaxi and Optimus progress. Tesla mentioned earlier this yr it was mothballing its Mannequin S and Mannequin X manufacturers to give attention to robotics and AI.
In accordance with the agency, the sell-off “may indicate on the floor a possibility for the inventory to outperform” after the Q1 outcomes are launched. Barclays, nevertheless, says it takes a “extra tempered view into the print,” as any solutions of incremental capex spending “may very well be perceived negatively.”
In the meantime, analysts at TD Cowen remained bullish on the corporate, sustaining its purchase score, whereas decreasing its value goal to $490 from $519.
The agency agrees that the dearth of stories about progress on Robotaxi and Optimus has “dampened sentiment” heading into the Q1 print. It additionally sees Tesla as higher positioned than suppliers to supply buyers “reassurances” and retain “steering credibility.”
TD Cowen believes Tesla has a low threat of guiding down within the earnings name and sees a barely constructive setup for the inventory heading into the earnings launch on Wednesday, April 22.
Associated: Rivian defies expectations regardless of tough EV setting
This story was initially printed by TheStreet on Apr 21, 2026, the place it first appeared within the Automotive part. Add TheStreet as a Most popular Supply by clicking right here.
