Simply days earlier than Denver’s mayoral election, not a lot is clearer than it was a month in the past.
Tens of millions of {dollars} have been spent by the campaigns and their outdoors supporters. Dozens of boards and debates have given the 16 energetic contenders an opportunity to distinguish themselves. They’ve touted a great deal of endorsements.
But because the first-round election approaches on Tuesday, no clear frontrunners have emerged to depart the remainder of the sphere of their mud. Undecided voters nonetheless appear to make up the biggest bloc, as evidenced by the glacial tempo of poll returns. Lower than 14% of mail ballots had been returned as of Friday, in keeping with the Denver Elections Division.
“Individuals are in search of a standout candidate, and so they’re in search of a purpose to vote,” mentioned James Mejía, a Denver civic chief, former metropolis official and mayoral candidate in 2011. “This one has thrown individuals for a loop. It’s unprecedented in Denver historical past in so some ways.”
The big subject, a perform of each the primary open race for mayor in 12 years and a brand new public financing program, has been robust for a lot of voters to slender down as in addition they make selections for Metropolis Council, different places of work and poll questions. There’s additionally been a dearth of public polling to substantiate which candidates may be catching traction within the weeks since a pair of February polls reported that no candidate had registered assist above the only digits.
It’s doable some voters will throw up their palms and anticipate the runoff on June 6. For now, a number of outstanding elected officers and main unions have stayed on the endorsement sidelines.
However the race isn’t all a muddle. Seven candidates have the very best shot of creating the runoff, in keeping with a spread of out of doors political observers and marketing campaign insiders who shared their reads of the race primarily based on each clear floor alerts and extra delicate components. As long as no one receives greater than 50% of the vote — the requirement to win outright on Tuesday — the highest two finishers will advance to the subsequent spherical.
Mejía suspects they probably may make the runoff with as little as 15% of the vote.
“It’s anyone’s race — it’s going to be whoever will get out the vote” amongst these prime contenders, mentioned Jeff Fard, a 5 Factors neighborhood activist, often known as Brother Jeff, who’s intently adopted the election.
Right here’s a have a look at which candidates are greatest positioned and the components, apart from sturdy fundraising, that would propel them to the runoff.
Kelly Brough
The reasonable candidate has attracted a raft of firm endorsements, together with from former Gov. Invoice Ritter, previous Denver Metropolis Council members and present suburban mayors. Broad backing from the enterprise neighborhood has helped make her the highest fundraiser. A former chief of employees to then-Mayor John Hickenlooper earlier than she led the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce, Brough lacked a recognizable identify amongst most voters. However she’s met that problem with a relentless stream of TV advertisements introducing herself, alongside along with her compelling private story.
An out of doors group has spent almost $1 million backing her up with a separate advert marketing campaign and floor recreation. Brough earned the endorsement of the Denver Gazette’s editorial board, together with the backing of former candidate Kwame Spearman.
Mike Johnston
After working unsuccessfully for governor and U.S. senator, Johnston has mounted a powerful marketing campaign for mayor, outlined by a optimistic outlook. The previous educator and state senator from northeast Denver has relied on sturdy ties inside his former district — together with within the Black neighborhood, regardless of a marketing campaign flyer misstep — whereas tapping a large donor community that was buttressed by his time main Gary Group Ventures, a philanthropic basis.
His allies are on observe to spend greater than $2 million independently on mailers and the race’s most strong advert marketing campaign by far, dwarfing the Johnston marketing campaign’s personal advertisements buys. Johnston additionally earned the endorsement of JHB’s editorial board (which is separate from The Publish’s information operation).
Leslie Herod
The state consultant entered the race with a powerful base of supporters, owing to years of outstanding work within the legislature on felony justice reform and different points. TV advertisements haven’t figured strongly in her marketing campaign technique, which was centered on constructing a community of neighborhood-level grassroots supporters early on. She attracted the early endorsement of former Mayor Wellington Webb, together with backing from notable figures in native and state politics, together with former Colorado first girl Dottie Lamm.
Herod has benefited from an outdoor group that’s spent almost $170,000 in assist of her candidacy, together with on modest TV advert buys and canvassing.
Lisa Calderón
Although she hasn’t held elected workplace, Calderón has constructed on her assist base from the 2019 mayoral election, when she gained 18.5% of the vote to complete third. She additionally has sturdy neighborhood ties from activist work on felony justice and Latino points. Lately Calderón, the chief of Emerge Colorado, gained the backing of a trio of progressive teams, together with the Colorado Working Households Social gathering and the Denver Democratic Socialist of America, that are also working to elect progressive Metropolis Council candidates — although that coordination has prompted current marketing campaign finance complaints.
That backing, together with assured debate performances, ought to assist Calderón compete with Herod for progressive voters. Although Calderón hasn’t purchased any TV advert time, she gained one energy, by way of luck, that no different candidate has: the highest poll place.
Chris Hansen
It will be straightforward to rely out the state senator from east Denver. He took a threat by being the primary candidate to air marketing campaign advertisements, beginning in mid-February, however was unable to maintain the preliminary tempo of advert buys after fundraising didn’t sustain. However Hansen has a base of assist and identify recognition from six years within the legislature, together with endorsements from a number of present and former legislators and former Gov. Roy Romer. He’s additionally drawn modest outdoors spending assist in current weeks.
Deborah “Debbie” Ortega
The three-term at-large Metropolis Council member is the one candidate that voters have seen on their ballots in every of the final three municipal elections — and he or she led the sphere of at-large candidates citywide every time. Ortega, who earlier represented a council district in west and northwest Denver for a number of phrases, has deep ties within the Latino neighborhood. She’s drawn a raft of endorsements from political figures from town’s previous, together with state Sen. Lucía Guzmán, and has been endorsed by a number of unions, together with these representing Denver sheriff’s deputies and firefighters; the latter union has reported spending greater than $120,000 independently in assist of Ortega.
Andy Rougeot
The entrepreneur and Military veteran could possibly be the most important stretch on this checklist, since he’s a Republican working in a metropolis with simply shy of 10% of voters sharing his affiliation. However the largely self-funding candidate — he’s reported loaning his marketing campaign $850,000 to this point — has hammered messages centered on getting robust on crime and cracking down on homelessness in a yr many are annoyed with these issues. His advert, connecting his army service in Afghanistan to his mission for Denver, has been a fixture on TV for weeks.
Stranger issues than a Republican breaking by way of may occur, however as political analyst Eric Sondermann factors out, it’s possible {that a} reasonable corresponding to Brough will siphon off conservative voters who see her as extra viable in a runoff.
The remainder of the sphere
A number of different candidates have damaged $100,000 in fundraising, demonstrating wholesome bases of assist, even when they have been aided by public matching funds. Ean Thomas Tafoya and Terrance Roberts, specifically, entered the race with expertise in grassroots activism.
Don’t write off the possibility {that a} lesser-known candidate may break by way of to complete among the many prime names, particularly with six of the seven main candidates — all however Calderón — clustered within the second half of the poll order.
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