The lengthy record of European leaders who’ve visited China within the final 4 months might nicely persuade the typical person who the Center Kingdom is the one place that issues to Europe. How else does one clarify the appearances by German chancellor Olof Scholz, European Union (EU) Council President Charles Michel, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and lately, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen?
It’s apparent that the EU is eager to underline that its coverage of engagement with China is unbiased of its transatlantic accomplice, the USA (US). So, whereas the US and China are struggling to renew their bilateral dialogue at a significant stage, virtually everybody within the EU is merrily winging their solution to China for a gathering.
Second, whether or not overtly or subliminally, European decision-makers don’t share the American coverage of decoupling with China. Many European nations have shut financial and commerce ties with China, and so they don’t have any want to chop these off.
Third, the Europeans imagine China has an essential function to play within the Ukrainian finish sport. They usually have increased stakes in Ukraine than anybody else. Their perception will need to have been bolstered by a telephone name between Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelensky this week — the place the Chinese language president reportedly informed his Ukrainian counterpart that talks and negotiations have been the one method ahead. This Chinese language transfer has been welcomed by all stakeholders with out exception.
Lastly, there may be the small matter of the presidential elections within the US subsequent yr. What if the Republicans take the White Home? It’s a contingency the Europeans want to be ready for. For Europe, the existential risk is from Russia. True, the EU shares issues in regards to the rise of an assertive China, but it surely thinks this may and ought to be managed via a sustained strategy of bilateral engagement in any respect ranges. The EU prefers a strategy of de-risking, not decoupling, which signifies that whereas the EU’s dependence on China for some strategic sectors (assume semiconductors, uncommon earth minerals) have to be decreased, the remainder of the commerce and funding relationship is kosher and have to be pursued and strengthened. Europe can be mortally afraid of China becoming a member of palms with Russia in a method that enables the previous to provide deadly weapons and supply army assist to Russia, which is able to utterly alter the battle dynamic in Ukraine. Certainly, Europe’s speedy preoccupation is about two issues: The prohibition of the usage of nuclear weapons by Russia and the interdiction of deadly weapons provide from China to Russia. For now, China appears content material to go together with these propositions.
From China’s perspective, all this can be a bonanza. A flurry of visits from the EU serves to burnish Xi’s international coverage credentials, coming because it does quickly after his go to to Moscow to satisfy Vladimir Putin. China would additionally like to drive a wedge between the US and Europe. On this vein, China has all the time hectored EU leaders that they need to observe an unbiased international coverage. Macron’s current interview the place he propounded his concept of strategic autonomy for Europe seems to have riled each the Europeans and Individuals alike. However the reality is he was articulating France’s established considering from the time of Charles de Gaulle. However France’s view is just not essentially shared by others in Europe, notably nations comparable to Poland. It is usually plain that with out assist from the US, Ukraine couldn’t have held up in opposition to the Russian invasion. So, Europe’s strategic autonomy for now could be a theoretical assemble. In the meantime, the “no-limits” friendship between Russia and China does seem to have some limits. For one factor, the Chinese language ambassador to the EU, Fu Cong, urged that China was not essentially on Russia’s facet within the battle in Ukraine and added for good measure that the reference to “no-limits” within the Sino-Russian joint assertion of February 4, 2022, was “nothing however rhetoric”. Additionally, on the Chinese language supply of mediation and Ukraine saying they are going to be open to negotiations on Crimea, Russia was fast to pour chilly water by saying that they weren’t prepared for negotiations on Crimea.
Given Europe’s prevarication and want to guard its financial and geopolitical pursuits in China, and Xi’s rising worldwide profile, it’s onerous to keep away from the impression that for now, a minimum of within the context of Europe and the Eurasian battle, China holds most, if not all, the playing cards.
Mohan Kumar is a former Indian ambassador to France and dean/professor, OP Jindal World College
The views expressed are private