Bengaluru: 5 exit polls have predicted a hung meeting in Karnataka and the Janata Dal (Secular) able to play kingmaker, whereas three predicted the Congress rising as the only largest get together and two positioned the Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP) within the lead.
The Instances Now-ETG exit ballot positioned Congress on the majority mark of 113, the BJP at 85 and the JD(S) at 23 within the 224-member meeting. India At this time-Axis My India too gave the Congress a transparent majority with 122-140 seats, adopted by BJP with 62-80 seats and the JD(S) with 20-25 seats. Equally, the Information 24-At this time’s Chanakya additionally positioned the Congress forward with a snug lead of 120 seats, the BJP with 92 and the JD(S) with 12 seats.
Information Nation-CGS gave the BJP a lead with 114 seats, adopted by the Congress with 86 and the JD(S) 21 seats, whereas Suvarna Information-Jan Ki Baat gave the BJP a slight edge with 94-117, adopted by the Congress with 91-106 and JD(S) with 14-24 seats.
The exit ballot by ABP Information-C Voter gave the Congress 100-112 seats, the BJP 83-95 and the JD(S) 21-29 seats. India TV-CNX predicted 110-120 seats for the Congress, 80-90 for the BJP and 20-24 for the JD(S). Republic TV-P MARQ, in the meantime, predicted 94-108 seats for the Congress, 85-100 for the BJP and 24-32 for the JD(S).
TV 9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat predicted 99-109 seats for Congress, 88-98 for BJP and 21-26 for JD(S), and the Zee Information-Matrize exit ballot predicted that Congress may emerge as the only largest get together with 103-118, adopted by BJP with 79-94 and JD(S) with 25-33 seats.
The vary of seats was excessive, indicating that survey companies are hedging their bets, with most displaying that not one of the three main events in Karnataka are anyplace near the numbers they have been claiming to bag within the run-up to the polls. Practically all exit polls predicted that there could be a most of 3-5 Independents within the new meeting.
In addition to Telangana, Karnataka is the one different state in southern India to go to the polls earlier than the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, wherein the Narendra Modi-led BJP is eyeing a 3rd time period.
Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, the BJP’s face within the state — alongside his predecessor B.S. Yeddiyurappa — had appealed to voters by the media in Shiggaon in Haveri district to “strengthen democracy” and write a “progressive and wonderful future for Karnataka” through the use of their proper to vote.
Earlier within the day, leaders of the BJP, the Congress, and the JD(S) and their households have been photographed at locations of worship earlier than heading to the polling cubicles.
Polling in Karnataka was held Wednesday, with the counting of votes set to happen on 13 Might.
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Excessive-octane marketing campaign
This time round, the Modi-led BJP carried out a high-octane marketing campaign with the prime minister addressing as many as 19 public conferences and 6 roadshows, together with a blitzkrieg in Bengaluru.
Union Dwelling Minister Amit Shah addressed 16 public conferences and took half in 15 roadshows, whereas BJP president J.P. Nadda held 10 public conferences and 16 roadshows, in response to knowledge shared by the state BJP.
The BJP, underneath Bommai, pursued points such because the hijab, halal, azaan, and the anti-conversion regulation amongst others, whereas promising to safeguard Hindutva. However when points corresponding to Tipu Sultan vs Vinayak Damodar Savarkar, Uri Gowda-Nanje Gowda and others did not resonate with the plenty, the get together reverted to social engineering by making an attempt to retain the Lingayat assist base and reaching out to different dominant communities.
The BJP additionally focused former Congress president Sonia Gandhi over the purported use of the phrase ‘sovereignty’ in a public assembly, accusing the Congress of main the ‘Tukde-Tukde’ gang. Gandhi didn’t use the phrase in her speech in Hubballi however a Twitter publish from the Congress official deal with did put sovereignty in quotes, making it out to be a part of the speech.
Compared, Congress chief Rahul Gandhi held at the least 18 rallies and two roadshows between 16 April and 10 Might, whereas Priyanka Gandhi Vadra held 12 public conferences and eight roadshows throughout the identical interval, in response to Congress sources.
The Congress get together localised the elections and tried to keep away from nationwide points in its marketing campaign, focussing extensively on state points with an emphasis on rising costs and alleged corruption, whereas additionally accusing the BJP of insulting its personal Lingayat leaders.
The Congress has been making an attempt to safe the backing of the dominant Lingayat group by highlighting the alleged mistreatment of leaders corresponding to B.S. Yediyurappa, Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi; the latter two joined the Congress final month.
A number of Lingayat boards have resolved to not again the BJP, however it stays to be seen if the group will return to the Congress fold almost 4 a long time after it distanced itself from the get together.
Though the Congress get together’s manifesto promise to ban the Bajrang Dal and the Fashionable Entrance of India (PFI) did seem to have prompted the BJP to make Hindutva its most important ballot plank, it stays to be seen whether or not the difficulty can have any affect on the result of this high-stakes election.
Hung meeting & horse-trading
Previous outcomes have proven that Karnataka’s voters have totally different voting preferences in the case of parliamentary and meeting elections.
Within the 2018 meeting elections, concordant with most exit polls’ prediction of a fractured verdict, voters in Karnataka delivered a hung meeting. In distinction, lower than a yr later, the BJP swept Karnataka within the 2019 Lok Sabha election, successful 25 of 28 seats.
The NDTV ballot of polls for the 2018 meeting election — drawing a ultimate ballot from the outcomes of 9 earlier exit polls — had indicated that the BJP could be the only largest get together with round 97 seats and the Congress would are available in an in depth second with 90. The JD(S) was predicted to win 31 seats.
Three of the 9 companies had predicted that one of many events would win a majority.
It is very important notice that because the early Eighties, voters in Karnataka have dismissed each single incumbent authorities, usually delivering a fractured verdict that offers strategy to unstable post-poll coalitions and horse buying and selling.
Political instability in Karnataka
The S.M. Krishna-led Congress gained a majority within the 1999 Karnataka polls however allied with the JD(S) in 2004. This alliance was short-lived since JD(S) chief H.D. Deve Gowda’s son H.D. Kumaraswamy walked out of the coalition and joined arms with the BJP to rule for an additional two years.
Nonetheless, this coalition too didn’t final lengthy because the JD(S) pulled out of the federal government simply seven days after Kumaraswamy handed over the chief minister’s workplace to B.S. Yediyurappa.
This was adopted by simply over a month of President’s Rule within the state, adopted by the Yediyurappa-led BJP bagging 110 of 224 seats within the 2008 meeting polls — simply three in need of the bulk mark.
The alleged poaching of MLAs that adopted led to the opposition coining the time period ‘Operation Kamala’ to allege large-scale post-poll horse buying and selling.
Though the BJP was ruling by itself, allegations of corruption and rising infighting noticed Yediyurappa’s authorities held hostage by his personal minister, Gali Janardhana Reddy, who holed up in a resort with a number of legislators, demanding “higher management”.
Yediyurappa was changed by D.V. Sadananda Gowda, who served as CM from August 2011 until July 2012. One other spherical of dissent and infighting led to a change of chief minister and Jagadish Shettar was introduced in.
This was adopted by the Siddaramaiah-led Congress successful 123 seats in 2013, capitalising on the discord inside the BJP and Yediyurappa’s exit.
Nonetheless, in 2018, the BJP emerged as the only largest get together with 104 seats and Yediyurappa was sworn in as chief minister for simply two days earlier than his authorities fell owing to lack of numbers.
Kumaraswamy then grew to become chief minister after the Congress backed him, however this authorities, too, fell in 2019 after 14 months as 17 legislators from the coalition defected in batches. Yediyurappa was then sworn in as CM however the BJP changed him with Basavaraj Bommai in July 2021.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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