The primary quarterback domino didn’t find yourself falling.
If the Rams and Matthew Stafford had gone via with a divorce — which felt like an actual risk for just a few days because the Raiders and Giants had been ready to supply vital cash and draft capital to reel him in — it might’ve brought on a sequence response all through the league. The Rams might need turned their consideration to Aaron Rodgers, or Sam Darnold, or another person. And that will have modified the choices accessible for the opposite groups in search of a quarterback.
As a substitute, Stafford is staying in Los Angeles, leaving quarterback-needy groups taking a look at a largely uninspiring quarterback market, each in free company and within the NFL Draft.
Final 12 months, I predicted how all of the quarterback openings can be stuffed and … didn’t do as terribly as I remembered. A few of my hits: Bears (Caleb Williams), Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield), Falcons (Kirk Cousins), Vikings (Sam Darnold), Patriots (Jacoby Brissett), Giants (Daniel Jones) and Seahawks (Geno Smith). The misses: Broncos (Sam Howell), Steelers (Kenny Pickett and Ryan Tannehill), Raiders (Jayden Daniels) and Commanders (Drake Maye). I additionally despatched J.J. McCarthy to the Giants, Bo Nix to the Patriots and Michael Penix Jr. to the Seahawks.
Final season, I listed 9 groups as open for enterprise — and some extra that had been on the fence. There are fewer apparent openings on this cycle, and fewer thrilling choices on the open market too.
The authorized tampering interval free of charge company opens subsequent Monday at midday ET, so this felt like an excellent time to look forward and predict what groups will do at quarterback.
Let’s handicap this 12 months’s subject by first determining what number of jobs are open, which jobs may be open, and which groups are already set at beginning quarterback.
Secure, however one thing to show
That leaves six groups as open for enterprise: Browns, Giants, Jets, Raiders, Steelers, Titans.
Notable choices
Let’s run via the starting-caliber — or borderline starting-caliber — quarterbacks who may very well be accessible this offseason.
NFL Draft: Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough, Jalen Milroe
Free Company: Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Marcus Mariota
Commerce/Potential cap lower: Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Tanner McKee, Joe Milton
With the six “open for enterprise” groups, plus 4 others that might get entangled within the QB market, listed here are my predictions…
Browns: Kirk Cousins and Jalen Milroe
The rumblings out of Indianapolis had been that the Browns most well-liked Cam Ward and maybe aren’t excessive sufficient on Shedeur Sanders to select him second total. That may be a smokescreen, however Sanders isn’t extensively thought-about that caliber of prospect anyway. Cousins has all the time made essentially the most sense among the many veteran choices projected to be accessible this offseason — assuming the Falcons aren’t critical about making him the costliest backup the league has ever seen — for a pair causes.
The largest: Kevin Stefanski was Cousins’ quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator with the Vikings for a pair years earlier than the Browns employed him. Cousins is coming off a career-worst 12 months (18 touchdowns, 16 interceptions) however it was his first season post-Achilles surgical procedure, and he handled different accidents too. He’s undoubtedly on the decline however is a wonderfully serviceable bridge possibility, whether or not that’s to Sanders or if Cleveland takes a swing later within the draft on somebody like Milroe. The previous Alabama star is extra of a undertaking as a passer however is a respectable weapon as a runner; Stefanski can incorporate him into the gameplan as a rookie.
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Giants: Aaron Rodgers and Jaxson Dart
The Rodgers-to-Giants risk first turned public as soon as Stafford formally returned to the Rams, however there was buzz in regards to the crew’s curiosity within the 41-year-old all week through the mix. The Giants are exploring all veteran choices, however the actuality is that Rodgers might be the most effective one, relying on their mileage on Darnold (who will probably be far dearer than Rodgers).
From New York’s perspective, it’s a win-now desperation play for a normal supervisor on the new seat. Rodgers nonetheless has sufficient potential to function a reasonable bridge possibility for a rookie, even when he skilled a steep decline in 2024 as he battled accidents, struggled to maneuver across the pocket, was unwilling to take pictures downfield and brought on his fair proportion of drama. Even nonetheless, he was much better than any quarterback the Giants trotted out in 2024, and opposite to standard perception, Rodgers was seen positively by the vast majority of the Jets’ locker room. Rodgers is extra prepared to tutor a younger quarterback than many may notice, even when that plan failed with Zach Wilson. From Rodgers’ perspective, he won’t have a greater possibility than the Giants. He additionally lately purchased a home in New Jersey and won’t be keen to maneuver until a possibility opened up in his residence state (California). It might be a good assumption to say that each Davante Adams and Allen Lazard would observe Rodgers to the Giants too.
The Giants may take into account Sanders if he falls to No. 3, however the smarter play can be to load up with expertise elsewhere on the roster. As for Dart: The Giants are flush with draft capital, with early second-, third- and fourth-round picks, plus an additional fourth. Dart appears to be the consensus third-best prospect in the meanwhile, and a few groups even have him forward of Sanders. The Giants may be capable of snag him on the high of the second spherical, but when not it wouldn’t be tough for them to commerce again up into the primary spherical and get him — after which let him study from Rodgers for a 12 months.
Colts: Sam Darnold and Anthony Richardson
It was all the time going to be laborious for Richardson to return again from checking himself out of a sport attributable to fatigue. He has tantalizing instruments however has not proven a capability to be a constant, starting-caliber NFL quarterback but, and the members of Colts management (notably GM Chris Ballard) are on the new seat. I wouldn’t even rule out a crew calling the Colts about buying and selling for Richardson, although his worth is fairly low for somebody drafted fifth total two years in the past.
Ballard, one way or the other, is getting one other shot at discovering a top quality beginning quarterback. Darnold is the highest free agent accessible coming off a stellar 2024: 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. PFF tasks Darnold to get a contract price greater than $40 million a 12 months, so the Colts can be banking on him enjoying like he did earlier than poor performances in regular-season-finale and wild-card-playoff losses.
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Jets: Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor
Taylor is on the Jets’ roster at an inexpensive price ($6.8 million cap hit) and it might not be surprising in any respect if he wound up being Aaron Glenn’s Week 1 starter. However there was a number of buzz in regards to the prospect of the Jets going after Fields and it makes some sense — he’s younger (25), cellular and might need some untapped potential, even when he’s been inconsistent as a thrower within the NFL. He was off to a pleasant begin in Pittsburgh final 12 months earlier than they in the end opted to bench him for Russell WIlson.
The most probably consequence for Fields this summer time is {that a} crew just like the Jets offers him a one- or two-year prove-it kind deal loaded with incentives, which might give him a shot at a much bigger payday (a la Darnold) in a 12 months or two. Fields has a historical past with Jets extensive receiver Garrett Wilson (they performed collectively at Ohio State) and New York can have the cap area to signal him in the event that they’re bidding towards different groups — which appears like an actual risk. PFF tasks a one-year, $11 million deal however I feel it should wind up taking greater than that.
Signing Fields received’t preclude the Jets from taking a shot on a Day 2 or Day 3 quarterback prospect. My early prediction: Ohio State’s Will Howard or Syracuse’s Kyle McCord.
Raiders: Russell Wilson and Quinn Ewers
The Raiders had been seen as having an actual shot at Stafford, largely due to the presence of Tom Brady. Most indicators level towards the Raiders prioritizing confirmed veterans over unproven rookies, and even query marks like Fields or Darnold. Wilson might be the next-best veteran available on the market after Rodgers, and there are a number of enjoyable storylines that will include him going to Las Vegas: He’d reunite with coach Pete Carroll and be a part of forces with Brady, who Wilson misplaced to in Tremendous Bowl XLIX.
The Raiders even have an early second-round choose (No. 37), and two early thirds (No. 68 and No. 73) and can be sensible so as to add a developmental expertise, like Ewers, after the primary spherical.
Saints: Derek Carr and Shedeur Sanders
The Saints don’t actually have a lot of an avenue to enhance this place and may be caught with Carr for now. New Orleans is already $47 million over the cap and wouldn’t get a lot reduction by reducing Carr pre-June 1 ($1.3 million), and he’s unlikely to garner any commerce curiosity at this level. So the Saints usually tend to simply roll with him for yet one more 12 months.
That wouldn’t preclude them from drafting somebody. I feel it’s conceivable at this level that Sanders drops out of the Prime 5; he would supply the Saints a approach out of the quarterback purgatory they’ve discovered themselves in since Drew Brees retired. If Sanders falls to No. 9 and the Saints are excessive sufficient on him, it’s price taking the swing.
Seahawks: Geno Smith
The Seahawks will keep the course with Smith for a minimum of yet one more season. He’s confirmed to be a wonderfully succesful, if inconsistent, quarterback at this stage of his profession. Over the past three seasons he’s averaged 4,242 passing yards and threw 71 touchdowns and 35 interceptions — with 15 picks coming in 2024, essentially the most since his rookie 12 months with the Jets. He might need some worth if the Seahawks choose to go in one other route, particularly since they’d save $31 million in cap area by buying and selling him, however I don’t see that occuring.
Steelers: Daniel Jones and Tyler Shough
I’ll be trustworthy, I had the toughest time predicting what Pittsburgh does. There may be a number of noise in regards to the Steelers preferring to maintain both Fields or Wilson, however that was additionally the noise about Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett final 12 months and that didn’t precisely come to fruition. I feel Fields will in the end select between the Jets and Steelers — and remember that Pittsburgh benched him final season despite the fact that he was enjoying comparatively properly. If Pittsburgh brings him again whereas committing to him as a starter, although, that might give them the sting.
I in the end determined to go along with the Jets for Fields, however it’s an in depth name. As for who Pittsburgh winds up focusing on if not Fields? I thought-about Cousins and Rodgers right here, however Cleveland and New York simply make extra sense for each in the meanwhile. I don’t assume the Steelers will choose a quarterback within the first spherical. Jones can be an fascinating low-cost flier, as he may very well be an excellent slot in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense, and Pittsburgh can be the most effective setting he’s been in as a starter when it comes to tradition, teaching and expertise round him. Pairing Jones with a developmental Day 2 or Day 3 prospect can be a approach of taking two pictures at discovering a starter — and Shough has some intriguing potential due to his dimension (6-5) and athleticism, although he has an harm historical past and will probably be 26 within the fall.
If the Saints do wind up transferring on from Carr, he turns into an actual risk right here too. I may additionally see Pittsburgh bringing in a 3rd veteran quarterback to be a part of the dialog — somebody of the Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew ilk.
Titans: Cam Ward
There’s been a number of assumption that the Titans will commerce out of the No. 1 choose to build up extra property. Has anybody ever stopped to ask why they wouldn’t simply take the highest quarterback prospect themselves? Will Levis is clearly not the reply. There are not any different apparent options for a crew that’s not fairly a contender but. And Ward a minimum of has the potential to be one thing particular, even when he’s not a surefire prospect like previous No. 1 picks. The Titans have some items already in place to assist him, together with proficient operating backs (Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears), a large receiver (Calvin Ridley) and a pair first-round offensive linemen (JC Latham, Peter Skoronski). Possibly the Titans don’t view Ward as a possible franchise quarterback — or maybe they worth the potential of somebody like Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter extra. It’s definitely potential the Titans wind up buying and selling out of this choose, however that’s removed from a lock.
Vikings: J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz
For some time, the prospect of bringing Darnold again for one more 12 months whereas McCarthy works his approach again from a torn meniscus appeared like a respectable risk. However as time as handed, and Darnold struggled in two huge video games, that started to really feel much less possible. Minnesota may be very excessive on McCarthy’s potential, which he flashed in coaching camp and the preseason final 12 months.
If Jones doesn’t get a beginning shot elsewhere I feel he’ll return to the Vikings as a possible stopgap till McCarthy is prepared. But when not him, I nonetheless anticipate the Vikings including a playable veteran on the place — I thought-about each Wentz and Jimmy Garoppolo right here. I went with Wentz as a result of, to me, he suits the Darnold mildew of a former extremely drafted quarterback in search of redemption. Wentz was an MVP frontrunner in 2017 earlier than tearing his ACL. He had moments in each Indianapolis and Washington, however stints with each groups ended poorly. He’s been humbled as a backup the previous two seasons, studying behind Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes and from each Sean McVay and Andy Reid. If there’s a coach who can get one thing out of Wentz, it’s Kevin O’Connell.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Images: Wealthy von Biberstein / Icon Sportswire, Luke Hales, Kevin C. Cox / Getty Photographs)