Chennai: Six years in the past, on 7 February 2017 round 9 pm, the Marina seaside in Chennai, the world’s second-longest seaside, grew to become a political area. The then outgoing Chief Minister and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) chief, O. Panneerselvam (OPS), had reached the memorial of former CM and social gathering chief J. Jayalalithaa, on the seaside. For the subsequent 40 minutes, OPS sat in a silent meditation there, leaving cadres, political leaders and the folks of the state desirous to know the explanation behind the sudden go to.
Solely two days earlier, OPS and his council of ministers had tendered their resignations, after V.Okay. Sasikala — a detailed aide of Jayalalithaa for half a century — was made the final secretary of the social gathering and in addition proposed as AIADMK’s chief ministerial face.
His resignation was accepted by then Governor C. Vidyasagar Rao on 6 February.
OPS’s silent meditation then had kickstarted his dharmayudham (struggle of rules) towards Sasikala and her household.
OPS had known as his protest a hit after Sasikala was ousted from the social gathering and joined palms with present AIADMK chief Edappadi Okay. Palaniswami (EPS).
Minimize to 2023, after being disgracefully and unceremoniously faraway from the social gathering in 2022 by an EPS-led faction, OPS has but once more launched into a Dharmayudham — a Dharmayudham 2.0 — this time towards EPS, for which he joined forces with Sasikala’s nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran earlier this month.
Dhinakaran based the Amma Makkal Munneetra Kazagam (AMMK) after being expelled from the AIADMK in 2017.
OPS Monday shook palms with Dhinakaran and introduced the start of a “working relationship” for 2 functions — to defeat the “evil pressure” Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), at the moment in energy within the state, and to recoup the AIADMK from the palms of the “betrayers”.
Calling the transfer “an act of necessity”, political analysts ThePrint spoke to mentioned there are not any everlasting enemies in politics.
“In politics, the previous doesn’t outline relationships, necessity makes the choice”, political analyst Priyan (who goes by his first identify solely) advised ThePrint.
In line with political analyst Sumanth C. Raman, OPS at the moment has no “massive buddies” or takers.
“OPS becoming a member of palms with TTV and his possible assembly Sasikala within the close to future are all makes an attempt to tie up with individuals who have a standard enemy,” Raman advised ThePrint, including that the frequent enemy right here is EPS.
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The ‘dharmayudham 2.0’
Within the earlier dharmayudham, the OPS-Sasikala face-off was short-spanned. Sasikala had been sentenced to 4 years in jail in a disproportionate property case by the Supreme Courtroom, which had upheld a 2014-trial courtroom order towards her. On 15 February, simply eight days after OPS’ meditation, Sasikala surrendered earlier than the jail authorities. The next day EPS was sworn in because the Chief Minister of the state.
The facility battle between EPS and OPS was evident from the time they got here collectively in August 2017, based on political observers.
Whereas EPS continued because the CM and OPS was made the deputy CM, within the social gathering, OPS grew to become the social gathering coordinator and EPS the joint coordinator.
Issues went downhill when EPS began consolidating help inside the social gathering and OPS began getting sidelined because the social gathering as soon as once more tried transferring from the system of twin management to having a single chief.
In June final yr, senior social gathering chief C. V. Shanmugam had mentioned that because the AIADMK’s basic council didn’t desk the decision with regard to the December 2021 election of OPS and EPS as coordinator and co-coordinator, the twin management ceased to exist.
OPS in the end tried authorized recourse, however the Supreme Courtroom in its verdict introduced in February this yr allowed EPS to stay basic secretary of the social gathering, whereas the Election Fee, too has recognised him as such. In March this yr, EPS was declared social gathering basic secretary.
In the meantime, OPS’s authorized battle calling the final council assembly invalid remains to be underway.
Whereas OPS and Dhinakaran had addressed EPS and his supporters as betrayers, EPS reacting to the OPS-T.T.V. reunion Thursday mentioned the “two betrayers have joined palms”.
Talking to the media in Salem, EPS mentioned, “It is sort of a mud horse becoming a member of palms with Maayaman [a magical deer chased by Lord Rama in the Ramayana]. Zero plus zero is the same as zero. Each OPS and TTV have known as one another a betrayer up to now. Now, the 2 betrayers have joined palms.”
In the meantime, former AIADMK MP from Chennai south, Dr J. Jayavardhan talking to ThePrint mentioned, OPS becoming a member of palms with TTV was in full contradiction to his earlier stand ‘and dharmayudham may solely be for “egocentric motto”. “However for us, this transfer makes no distinction.”
He additionally alleged that OPS and TTV have been appearing just like the B-team of the DMK, and have been “working on the DMK’s behest”.
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Caste-based social gathering
Although AIADMK leaders declare that the social gathering shouldn’t be caste-based, political analysts within the state say that almost all of the social gathering’s vote share is predicated on caste.
The Kongu belt that covers 9 districts — Coimbatore, Tirupur, Erode, Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Salem, Namakkal, Karur and Dindigul — has been a stronghold of EPS, who belongs to the Gounder group from Salem, which is the distinguished vote financial institution within the area.
However in a number of locations within the delta districts, like Tanjore, Nagapattinam Myladudurai, and within the southern districts of Tamil Nadu, each OPS and TTV have clout over the Mukkulathor or Thevar vote financial institution — a group they each signify.
In line with Raman, the Mukkulathor vote financial institution can have an effect on 25-30 state meeting seats and shut to 5 parliamentary seats.
The Mukkulathor group, which is a crucial vote financial institution for the AIADMK, has been “indignant” with the EPS faction, mentioned analysts.
“They’re indignant about how Sasikala and OPS have been sidelined and later faraway from the social gathering. Additionally, the ten.5 per cent reservation that was handed by the earlier AIADMK authorities for the Vanniyar group has made the Mukkulathors really feel betrayed by EPS, who was the CM at the moment,” mentioned Priyan.
In 2021, simply half-hour earlier than the Election Fee introduced the TN meeting election dates, the then AIADMK authorities unanimously handed a invoice offering 10.5 per cent reservation to Vanniyars, inside the Most Backward Courses (MBC) group, in authorities jobs and admissions to academic establishments.
This was seen as a transfer by the AIADMK to woo the Vanniyar-based social gathering, Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), onto its facet. This reservation was later struck down by each the Madras Excessive Courtroom and the Supreme Courtroom.
This inner reservation for the Vanniyars did create a setback for the AIADMK in southern Tamil Nadu the place the Thevar group is dominant. Within the 2021 meeting polls, of the 60 seats it contested within the area, the AIADMK may solely win 16.
In the meantime, within the Gounder-dominated Kongu belt, of the 54 seats that the AIADMK contested, it gained 32.
In line with Priyan, the vast majority of the Mukkulathor group has been wanting the unification of OPS, Sasikala and TTV, and has been feeling that the Gounders have been getting extra prominence within the social gathering, as many from the group began to achieve prominence and key positions within the EPS-led AIADMK social gathering.
“Even when TTV and OPS faction doesn’t win any seats, they’ll nonetheless be capable of play spoilsport for the AIADMK-BJP alliance within the upcoming elections,” mentioned Priyan.
‘OPS and TTV mixture want for AIADMK’
In the meantime, Dhinakaran’s AMMK had obtained 5.27 per cent votes within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, which dropped to 2.35 per cent within the 2021 meeting polls within the state.
Although AMMK has no distinguished foothold within the state and isn’t a pan Tamil Nadu social gathering, within the few locations the place there’s help for it, the social gathering poaches into conventional AIADMK votes, analysts defined.
For instance, Dhinakaran, who after Jayalalithaa’s demise in 2016, had contested the 2017 bypoll as an impartial candidate from her R.Okay. Nagar constituency, after being ousted from the AIADMK, gained with an enormous margin of 40,707 votes, defeating the AIADMK and the DMK candidates. The R.Okay. Nagar constituency is taken into account a conventional AIADMK stronghold.
“TTV has a really affable character; he’s fairly an even-tempered individual. The one factor is he hasn’t performed his playing cards proper,” mentioned Raman.
In line with political analysts, Tamil Nadu politics, which was as soon as centered on stalwarts, is now slowly drifting in direction of caste-based voting patterns.
Although the AIADMK had dominated the west and south Tamil Nadu, that are principally dominated by Gounders and Thevars, within the 2021 meeting polls, the Vanniyars, Thevars and Gounders occupied 43 per cent of the overall meeting seats.
Talking to ThePrint, OPS supporter and former AIADMK MLA J.C.D Prabhakar mentioned, “With out the mix of OPS and TTV, the AIADMK can’t win any elections sooner or later in Tamil Nadu.”
Agreeing that the divide within the social gathering will result in a “cut up within the AIADMK votes”, Prabhakar added, “If our leaders M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) and Jayalalithaa would have been alive, they might not have preferred what is occurring within the social gathering and the best way EPS is behaving.”
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‘BJP will need a united AIADMK’
The AIADMK, which had contested 179 of the 234 meeting seats within the 2021 meeting polls, gained 66 and obtained 33.29 per cent votes.
Within the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, the social gathering gained just one seat, Theni, which was contested by OPS’s son, O.P. Ravindranath.
The social gathering additionally garnered a low vote share of 18.8 per cent towards the 44.3 per cent it obtained in 2014. The explanation for the plunge within the vote share, based on specialists, was that AMMK, which obtained 5.25 per cent votes, was poaching into AIADMK votes.
In line with political analysts, the Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP), which is attempting to make inroads into the state primarily based on an alliance with the AIADMK, will need the social gathering united underneath the 2 leaves image.
Although the BJP has been stating that it’ll not intervene within the AIADMK’s inner affairs, a senior social gathering functionary on situations of anonymity advised ThePrint, that the BJP excessive command has been insisting on a united AIADMK entrance.
“If EPS’ AIADMK stands alone, the anti-DMK vote will see a cut up and the BJP has realised this. So the social gathering desires to unite AIADMK underneath the 2 leaves image,” mentioned Priyan.
(Edited by Richa Mishra)
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