Al Qaeda has not confirmed the demise of chief Ayman al-Zawahiri. (File)
Paris, France:
5 months after the US introduced the killing of Al-Qaeda’s chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan, the worldwide jihadist group has nonetheless not confirmed his demise or introduced a brand new boss.
In early August, US President Joe Biden mentioned US armed forces fired two missiles from a drone flying above the Afghan capital, putting al-Zawahiri’s secure home and killing him.
However the group’s propaganda arms have continued to broadcast undated audio or video messages of the bearded Egyptian ideologue who led the group after US particular forces in 2011 killed its charismatic founder Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.
“That is actually weird,” mentioned Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter-Extremism Challenge assume tank.
“A community solely works with a pacesetter. You want an individual round which the whole lot coalesces.”
Virtually all choices stay open.
“It may in fact be the case that the US is flawed about his demise,” researchers Raffaello Pantucci and Kabir Taneja wrote in early December on the Lawfare web site.
However “this would appear unlikely given the arrogance with which President Biden publicly spoke in regards to the strike.”
Successor in hiding?
One other risk is that the group has to date did not make contact with Zawahiri’s probably successor, his former quantity two, who goes by the nom de guerre Saif al-Adl or “sword of justice”.
A former Egyptian particular forces lieutenant-colonel who turned to jihadism within the Eighties, he’s believed by observers to be in Iran.
The Islamic republic’s Shiite rulers formally oppose Sunni Al-Qaeda, however opponents have repeatedly accused Iran of cooperating with the community and giving sanctuary to its leaders.
For Schindler, Saif al-Adl “is a legal responsibility but in addition an asset for the Iranian regime”.
In keeping with its pursuits, Tehran may resolve at hand him over to the US, or permit him to assault the West.
Al-Qaeda may additionally be holding quiet about Zawahiri’s demise below stress from the Taliban, Pantucci and Taneja recommended.
The group issued a rigorously worded assertion in August, neither confirming Zawahiri’s presence in Afghanistan nor acknowledging his demise.
“Their choice to not remark might be a part of their efforts to handle their fragile however deep relationship with Al-Qaeda, whereas additionally avoiding drawing consideration to the international terror group presence in direct contravention of their settlement with the US,” they mentioned.
Saif al-Adl may be lifeless or in hiding to keep away from the destiny of his predecessor or the 2 final leaders of the community’s principal rival, the Islamic State group, who have been additionally killed final 12 months.
Zawahiri didn’t attempt to emulate bin Laden’s charisma and affect after he took over the community however performed a key position in decentralising the group.
Al-Qaeda is right now a far cry from the group that carried out the September 11, 2001 assaults towards the US.
It now has autonomous franchises scattered throughout the Center East, Africa and Southeast Asia which might be far much less depending on central command than beforehand by way of operations, funding and technique.
‘Restricted significance’
Barak Mendelsohn, a US-based Al-Qaeda professional, mentioned it was arduous to inform why the group was taking time to announce a brand new chief, including that the delay was not “very consequential”.
“Finally the wait displays Al-Qaeda central’s restricted significance,” he mentioned.
“It is a image unifying teams throughout borders, however its operational relevance is low.”
Al-Qaeda’s arch-enemy Islamic State has confronted related difficulties in filling its management since its “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed himself throughout a US raid in Syria in 2019.
After his two successors have been killed final 12 months, IS this autumn selected a relative unknown as its new chief, who claims heritage from the prophet’s Quraysh tribe to spice up his legitimacy.
Tore Hamming, a fellow on the Worldwide Centre for the Examine of Radicalisation, mentioned it was not important for Al-Qaeda to have a symbolic chief to talk in its identify.
“We’ve seen with the Islamic State (group) since 2019, it doesn’t essentially matter,” he mentioned.
IS elected new caliphs, however “nobody knew who they have been and by no means heard from them. But nonetheless associates remained loyal,” he defined.
“For Al-Qaeda it might be the identical, simply with a council of senior figures taking part in the position of an amir,” or chief.
(Aside from the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV employees and is printed from a syndicated feed.)
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