The Military–Navy recreation occupies a particular, but peculiar place on the faculty soccer calendar.
Its significance is plain, given the historical past, ferocity and pageantry of the rivalry. It stands alone — actually — as the one recreation on the Saturday after convention championship weekend in December. But the stakes of the sport usually haven’t mattered when it comes to rankings or the nationwide championship race.
This 12 months, it’s sophisticated.
The service academies are each undefeated and ranked. And the 12-team School Soccer Playoff signifies that the No. 23 Black Knights (7-0) and No. 24 Midshipmen (6-0) are bona fide Playoff contenders — if one among them can win the American Athletic Convention.
However the Playoff subject will likely be set on Dec. 8 — six days earlier than the annual Military-Navy recreation kicks off in Landover, Md. And since Military and Navy at the moment are conference-mates within the AAC, the Dec. 14 matchup could possibly be the second assembly between the groups in a single season.
Right here’s a take a look at how issues may shake out.
How did we get right here?
Military QB Bryson Day by day leads all FBS gamers with 19 dashing touchdowns. (Lucas Boland / Imagn Pictures)
It’s the primary time since 1926 that Military and Navy each have began a season 6-0.
The Black Knights are 7-0 and have but to path in a recreation. Naturally, they lead the nation in dashing offense, led by quarterback Bryson Day by day, who has accounted for 26 whole touchdowns. Military is already 6-0 in AAC play, which means it has simply two convention video games left (at North Texas, UTSA).
The Midshipmen are 6-0 heading into a large recreation towards No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., and 4-0 within the AAC. It’s already their finest season since 2019 after they gained 11 video games.
Military and Navy presently occupy the highest two spots within the AAC standings.
So … does that imply they might play twice?
Sure — and in back-to-back weeks. They may face off within the convention championship recreation on Dec. 6 and meet once more for his or her annual rivalry on Dec. 14.
However Tulane is true behind them with a 3-0 convention file and performs Navy on Nov. 16. A loss may derail Navy’s shot at punching its ticket to the convention championship and thus crush the Mids’ Playoff hopes.
Will the Military-Navy recreation rely towards the CFP?
A possible assembly within the AAC championship would. However the annual, neutral-site recreation won’t.
Choice Day for the Playoff is Sunday, Dec. 8, and the annual Military-Navy recreation is the next Saturday. Within the four-team Playoff period, the choice committee had a protocol that allowed it to attend for Military-Navy if it had implications on the sector. However as a result of the 12-team Playoff begins the weekend of Dec. 20-21, it couldn’t wait on the end result this time round.
This implies there’s a state of affairs by which one service academy wins the AAC and a berth into the CFP, then loses its ultimate regular-season recreation to the identical opponent it beat out to advance to the Playoff.
There’ll nonetheless be bragging rights on the road, after all.
Would Military or Navy have much less time to organize for a Playoff recreation?
On condition that no different groups play a recreation the week of Dec. 14, if both service academy earns a spot within the Playoff it will have much less time to organize for its postseason opponent.
What are the possibilities Military or Navy makes the Playoff?
There’s a 29.6 % likelihood that Military or Navy makes the Playoff, however the person percentages for each groups relying on the outcomes of their subsequent video games look just a little completely different.
If Navy beats Notre Dame on Saturday, the Midshipmen’s odds to make the Playoff rise to 10 %, in accordance with the projection mannequin by The Athletic’s Austin Mock. With a loss, that drops to five %.
Military faces a better opponent in Air Drive, so the Cadets’ percentages are increased: 30 % with a win and 14 % with a loss. Military additionally has to play Notre Dame on Nov. 23, at Yankee Stadium.
Mock’s mannequin offers Military a 63 % likelihood to win the AAC, whereas Navy is at 15 %.
GO DEEPER
What do Military and Navy’s historic begins imply for AAC championship? CFP?
What else must occur for both crew to make the Playoff?
Two issues have to occur. First, the apparent one, is for Military or Navy to maintain profitable and win the AAC. It’s unlikely both could make the Playoff as an at-large crew.
Second, they possible want the Mountain West to beat up on one another. Boise State (5-1) is presently ranked forward of Military and Navy, and the Broncos’ solely blemish is a highway loss at Oregon.
The opposite crew to fret about from the Mountain West is UNLV (6-1). Boise State performs at UNLV on Friday, which may have a big impression on the Group of 5 Playoff bid.
In order for you a rooting information to get Military or Navy into the CFP, I’d most likely root for UNLV to drag the upset this weekend after which proceed to root for these two groups to lose down the stretch. — Austin Mock
Has Military or Navy ever gained a nationwide championship?
Led by 1946 Heisman Trophy winner Glenn Davis, Military claimed nationwide titles in 1944, 1945 and 1946. (Bettmann through Getty Pictures)
Sure, however the specifics are a bit sophisticated, as a result of faculty soccer hasn’t at all times held a nationwide championship recreation.
Military claims 5 nationwide championships (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), although a number of packages declare titles for 4 of these years. Equally, Navy claims a share of the 1926 nationwide title.
The final time both crew cracked the AP prime 10 was in 1964, when Navy peaked at No. 6.
What’s subsequent?
Military finishes the common season with Air Drive (1-6), North Texas (5-2), Notre Dame (6-1), UTSA (3-4) and Navy.
Navy finishes with Notre Dame, Rice (2-5), South Florida (3-4), Tulane (5-2), East Carolina (3-4) and Military.
(Prime picture: Barry Chin / The Boston Globe through Getty Pictures)