As Juan Soto embarks on $765M future, Ted Williams’ shadow lingers: Where could he end up?

DALLAS — So maybe you’re questioning this week: What would I’ve to do to get some baseball group to pay ME $700 million?

Hey, wonderful query. And I believe we’ve figured that out.

On one hand, you may be a unicorn — a once-in-a-lifetime dwelling run hero/Cy Younger starter/make-the-impossible-seem-possible type of man. Like Shohei Ohtani, for example. Or …

You would simply be Ted Williams.

All proper, let’s take a deep breath now. It all the time appears sacrilegious to name Juan Soto — or anybody else — a modern-day Ted Williams. However that is the story the place we let you already know that it’s not as loopy as you need to imagine it’s.

The Mets clearly assume so, since they only agreed to deposit $765 million in Soto’s cash market account over the subsequent 16 years. However it is best to know that they’re not the one group that sees this Juan Soto/Ted Williams factor. Removed from it.

Think about the response from one big-league coach this week after we requested for his response to Soto’s staggering new contract.

“What it says to me,” he replied, laughing, “is that Ted Williams would make a hell of some huge cash if he was enjoying immediately.”

True!

Then there’s this story, informed by an government of a group that had curiosity in buying and selling for Soto in 2022, when the Nationals have been dangling him. Simply to ensure he had the go-ahead, this exec and one other high-ranking member of his entrance workplace determined they’d higher run it previous their proprietor first. That is how the exec remembers the dialog going:

“He (the proprietor) mentioned one thing like: ‘I perceive he’s nice. However can you place in context how nice he’s?’

“And I mentioned: ‘I believe he’s Ted Williams.’

“And he simply gave me a seem like: ‘You’re a freaking lunatic.’ However I simply mentioned, ‘No, that’s type of what he’s.’”

We couldn’t have mentioned it any higher. That’s type of what he’s. He’s not Ted Williams 2.0 as a result of no one is. That isn’t attainable. Williams completed his profession with a 1.116 OPS and a .344 profession batting common. No person is doing that on this period. No person.

However is Juan Soto type of the 21^st-century model of Ted Williams? There’s no getting round that.

If the query is extra like — What hitter within the historical past of baseball is essentially the most corresponding to Soto by age 25? — there is just one reply. And also you guessed it, Ted Williams is that reply.

Let’s present you why. It begins with …

On-base IQ at a younger age

Juan Soto has a profession .419 on-base proportion over seven seasons. (Luke Hales / Getty Photographs)

Within the historical past of this sport, solely two hitters have ever had a stroll price above 18 % by their age-25 seasons (with at the least 2,500 plate appearances). Guess who?

Ted Williams — 18.9 %
Juan Soto — 18.8 %

(Supply: Baseball Reference)

Or we might take a look at the complete array of on-base expertise. To try this, let’s use a metric from Baseball Reference known as OBP+ — which takes on-base proportion and adjusts it to the context of a participant’s hitting atmosphere in his period. Right here’s that leaderboard by age 25:

Ted Williams — 137
Juan Soto — 131

In different phrases, the one two younger hitters who have been on-base machines at a price that was at the least 30 % higher than league common have been … Williams and Soto. (Subsequent on that record: Ty Cobb and Shoeless Joe Jackson, tied at 129.)

Or we might simply contemplate the early-career narratives of those two guys — minus the half the place Williams went off to warfare at age 24 and have become a war-hero fighter pilot.

Earlier than he turned 26, Williams led his league in walks twice and OBP 3 times, regardless of lacking two seasons throughout that span within the service. Since then, just one left-handed hitter has led his league in each of these departments at the least twice by age 25. Hmmm, who may that be?

Juan Soto can be an ideal guess.

There’s extra, in fact. However what do you assume? Are we approved to go on? Can we at the least have the go-ahead to say Soto and Williams in the identical breath? We requested Diamondbacks supervisor Torey Lovullo for permission to take action this week, since he’s a historical past lover and as soon as coached in Boston. On reflection, he won’t have been the best selection.

“I imply, Ted Williams?” Lovullo mentioned. “My dad taught me all the pieces about Ted Williams. That’s a troublesome one for me. He’s in all probability the best hitter of all time.”

So Lovullo wasn’t prepared to use that Ted Williams stamp of approval. However as soon as he bought that out of the best way, Lovullo started portray the portrait of what he does see in Soto, from the angle of a supervisor who has been making an attempt to determine tips on how to include him since Soto arrived within the huge leagues.

“The primary time I noticed him, he was 20 years outdated,” Lovullo mentioned. “I couldn’t imagine he was 20 years outdated. He carried himself like he was 30, like he had been across the league for a very long time.”

And Lovullo implies that in a manner that explains why the free-agent bidding for Soto reached one other orbit this winter.

“I believe Soto is on a distinct stage than the remainder of the league at occasions,” he mentioned. “I imply, 41 dwelling runs, the OPS, the numbers that he has, usually are not fortunate. It’s as a result of he has an unbelievable potential to impression the baseball, and he understands what every at-bat is asking for.”

He understands what every at-bat is asking for.

With these phrases, Lovullo is telling us this isn’t a hitter who is ready for every at-bat within the sense that he is aware of the pitcher has a fastball, sweeper and cutter in his arsenal. It is a hitter who prepares on “a distinct stage.”

Form of like a modern-day Ted Williams. That, you see, is as a result of they each had the distinctive potential to see …

The hidden a part of the sport

Nationals supervisor Davey Martinez and Juan Soto, after he gained the Residence Run Derby in 2022. (Kevork Djansezian / Getty Photographs)

Davey Martinez was the primary supervisor of Juan Soto’s big-league life, for 5 spectacular seasons in Washington. Now that Soto is again within the NL East, Martinez will get to handle in opposition to him in 4 sequence a 12 months. He’s not wanting ahead to that half — however he by no means will get bored with watching Juan Soto, bat artist.

“Like I’ve all the time mentioned,” Martinez informed us, “this man, for as younger as he’s — and he’s nonetheless younger — he understands the hidden a part of the sport higher than anyone I do know. He actually does.”

Once more, we cease to level out the terminology these managers use to explain a man who two months in the past turned 26 — that means he’s youthful than the likes of Josh Jung or Spencer Horwitz or Josh Lowe. It’s not: He understands the strike zone. It’s: He understands the hidden a part of the sport.

And by that, Martinez mentioned, he means: “He has a plan each pitch. Not simply each at-bat however each pitch. He has a plan of what he desires to do, and you’ll see it.”

Rockies supervisor Bud Black can even see it. And he, too, described The Juan Soto At-Bat in methods which can be by no means used to explain anybody else’s at-bats.

“If you use the phrases, plate self-discipline, that encompasses a whole lot of issues,” Black mentioned. “However for me, it’s how he conducts the at-bat, the place it’s persistence, however but, you sense that he’s able to hit. It’s form of an instinctual factor. It’s an intangible that I believe pitchers really feel, and catchers really feel. And the opposing supervisor. And the opposing pitching coach.

“There’s simply one thing in regards to the at-bat when it’s him up there. It doesn’t matter, it’s the identical, whether or not it’s 7:05 (p.m.), hitting within the first inning, or at 9:30, hitting within the ninth. There’s not a distinction within the high quality of the at-bat.”

Like Lovullo and Martinez, Black is describing a hitter whose stage of focus — on each pitch of each at-bat, of each inning, of each sport, of each season — is simply completely different. So what occurs when the attention, the mind, the plan, the main focus and the extraordinary bat-to-ball expertise appear to be all the time working in sync?

You get Juan Soto … or Ted Williams.

Think about these quotes. They arrive from the Splendid Splinter. They may simply be his evaluation of Juan Soto.

“Baseball is 50 % from the neck up.”

“Assume. Don’t simply swing. Take into consideration the pitcher — what he threw you final time up, his finest pitch, who’s up subsequent. Assume.”

Sound acquainted? Should you’ve paid any consideration when Soto is working his batter’s-box magic, it’s nearly as if he’s a hitting robotic, programmed by Ted Williams himself.

Mentioned Martinez: “I inform our pitchers on a regular basis: If you’re dealing with him, you have to know he’s good. He is aware of what he desires to do. So if he takes a fastball, he’s on the lookout for one thing. Don’t assume you’re going to sneak one thing by him, as a result of he’s good. So that you’ve bought to be good.”

However actually, there’s extra — as a result of the Soto/Williams comparisons don’t finish with this singular mixture of persistence, prep and focus. There’s additionally …

The facility play

John Schneider additionally dreamed the Juan Soto dream. He’s the supervisor of the Blue Jays, a group that pursued Soto all the best way to the end line. He had no bother explaining precisely what they hoped they’d be shopping for.

“He’s a novel mix of plate self-discipline and energy,” Schneider mentioned. “I imply, you don’t like dealing with it while you’re an opposing group.”

Plate self-discipline and energy. If you mix them, after which apply them to all of the younger hitters in historical past, it as soon as once more connects the identical two names: Ted Williams and Juan Soto.

Stroll proportion and residential run proportion by age 25

(Supply: Baseball Reference; minimal 2,500 plate appearances)

So there it’s. There’s persistence. There’s energy. There’s focus. There’s injury. And there’s yet another factor.

The aptitude

It’s no secret that Ted Williams did all the pieces — on the sphere, off the sphere — with an perspective. However Juan Soto has extra than simply an perspective. He has The Shuffle.

.@JuanSoto25_ does the shuffle to pump himself up. Seems like it really works.

📰: https://t.co/c2QKA4hpjl pic.twitter.com/8HJvoTO3ZZ

— MLB (@MLB) March 27, 2021

Don’t really feel as if it’s a must to take a four-minute break from this piece to observe the complete, epic Soto at-bat in opposition to Hunter Gaddis in Cleveland this October. However for those who do, you’ll see one thing that makes up the complete Juan Soto Expertise.

The entire Juan Soto at-bat vs. Hunter Gaddis. An artist at work. Simply fouling off pitches till he bought a fastball.

Then he despatched the Yankees to the World Collection. pic.twitter.com/2C6lSIpD45

— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) October 20, 2024

It isn’t merely that he is aware of what you’re making an attempt to do to him on each pitch. He’s additionally going to inform you about it after each pitch … and show it, by way of some model of the Soto Shuffle. There’s actually nothing like this happening anyplace else in his sport.

“For me, it’s his manner of conserving engaged,” Martinez mentioned. “It truly is. That’s how he will get again within the field and will get engaged.”

And it brings Martinez again to his favourite Soto story ever. It occurred in a 2019 sport at Citi Subject, when Marcus Stroman, then a Met, struck out Soto within the first inning, then did an imitation of The Shuffle.

“So he comes again (to the dugout), and I mentioned, ‘Did you see what he simply did?’” Martinez reminisced. “And he mentioned, ‘Don’t fear. I’ve bought him.” Very subsequent at-bat. He hit one a mile — and he type of checked out Stroman like, ‘Don’t try this once more.’”

Was there a Ted Williams Shuffle? Not that we all know of. However there was a Ted Williams edge. And it’s an unmistakable a part of the Soto-Williams connection. Don’t take our phrase for it. Take the phrase of Charlie Manuel, former supervisor of the Phillies and a man who performed in opposition to Ted Williams early in his profession.

“He’s type of a flamboyant participant,” Manuel mentioned of Soto in 2021. “He’s very fascinating. He calls consideration to you along with his expertise. … On the identical time, he’s cocky. However to me, it is available in a great way. You realize, Ted Williams was very cocky, too.”

However you already know what else Ted Williams was? A man who performed within the huge leagues till he was 41. So it’s price asking:

The place does Juan Soto go from right here? 

If Juan Soto ages properly, he ought to put up some prodigious numbers. (Cole Burston / Getty Photographs)

Since he’s now underneath contract till the 12 months 2040, it’s price asking: Do hitters with Juan Soto’s talent set are inclined to age properly?

“Oh yeah, I believe so,” Schneider mentioned. “You’re solely pretty much as good as what you swing at, proper? And he’s fairly darned good at that.”

The reality is, historical past reveals us he’s proper. Way back to 2012, Invoice Petti and Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs studied this very idea. They discovered one thing we should always pay attention to — that nearly no talent has tended to age higher by the years than plate self-discipline.

Guess who looms as the last word instance of that? Proper you might be. Ted Williams.

Regardless that he left baseball to go off to warfare two occasions, Williams returned — first at age 27, then at age 34 — as practically precisely the identical hitter he was earlier than.

Check out his stroll and residential run charges by the years — since these are the charges that almost all resemble the profile of the younger Juan Soto — and ponder whether or not they lay out a blueprint for what Soto may grow to be.

(Supply: Baseball Reference)

You’ll discover that Williams performed till precisely the identical age as when Soto’s Mets contract expires — at 41. If Soto ages with even remotely comparable charges … um, wow.

After his age-25 season, Williams added 394 dwelling runs and 1,526 walks. If Soto ages like Williams, he’ll be someplace within the neighborhood of 600 profession homers and a pair of,300 profession walks by the 12 months 2040. And what number of gamers in historical past have ever reached these two plateaus? Only one.

Barry Bonds.

So is that what’s on the market for Soto with the Mets? Sorry. We forgot to pack our crystal balls for the Winter Conferences. However with a hitter this gifted — and this completely different — can we rule something out?

“I don’t know what he’s going to do when he’s 40,” mentioned Martinez. “However I do know what he’s going to do come Opening Day.”

Hey, don’t all of us. Energy. Endurance. And $765 million price of Soto Shuffles — and the most effective Ted Williams imitation on Earth.

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(Prime picture: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photographs: Williams swinging: Diamond Photographs / Getty Photographs; Williams close-up: Getty Photographs; Soto close-up: Kyle Rivas / Getty Photographs; Soto swinging: Mitchell Layton / Getty Photographs)