Doha:
The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, after insurgent forces swept into Damascus this weekend, shattered Iran’s community of affect within the Center East however Israel, the USA and Arab powers should now take care of the danger of instability and extremism from the mosaic of forces that replaces him.
Chief among the many insurgent forces that ended 50 years of brutal dynastic rule by Assad and his father was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Muslim group beforehand affiliated with Al Qaeda that’s designated as a terrorist group by the US and the UN.
Western and Arab nations concern that the HTS-led insurgent coalition could search to interchange Assad’s regime with a hardline Islamist authorities, or one much less in a position or inclined to stop the resurgence of radical forces, three diplomats and three analysts advised Reuters.
“There may be robust concern inside and out of doors the area of the ability vacuum that Assad’s sudden collapse could trigger,” mentioned Abdelaziz al-Sager, director of the Gulf Analysis Heart, a suppose tank centered on the Center East. He cited the civil wars that adopted the toppling of Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in 2003 and Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
One senior Western diplomat within the area, who spoke on situation of anonymity, advised Reuters that – with the insurgent forces fragmented – there was no plan for rule Syria, a posh nation divided into numerous sects and ethnic teams, every with its personal regional energy base.
The senior diplomat expressed fears that lawlessness in Syria might permit the flourishing of extremist teams like Islamic State (IS), which in 2014 swept by way of giant swathes of Syria and Iraq and established an Islamic Caliphate earlier than it was pushed out by a US-led coalition by 2019.
US President Joe Biden on Sunday welcomed Assad’s toppling and mentioned he ought to be “held accountable” for his despotic rule however he warned that his departure was a second of “threat and uncertainty”. US forces on Sunday carried out dozens of strikes inside Syria in opposition to IS to stop it reasserting itself.
The pace of Assad’s ouster, simply two weeks because the insurgent offensive started, took many within the White Home without warning. A senior US official mentioned Washington was now in search of methods to speak with all of the insurgent teams, not simply HTS.
To this point, Washington had principally thrown its help behind Syrian Kurdish teams, such because the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose areas of management are in northeast Syria. These teams, nevertheless, are in battle with one of many fundamental victorious rebels factions, the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA), backed by regional energy dealer, Turkey, which opposes Kurdish affect.
Assad’s allies, Tehran and Moscow, who propped up his rule for 13 years with navy help, males and airpower, additionally face far-reaching implications from his precipitous downfall.
Moscow – which has given Assad and his household asylum – has two main navy bases in Syria, its fundamental footprint within the Center East. Its naval base in Tartous on the Mediterranean has been a staging submit to fly navy contractors out and in of Africa.
For Tehran, its alliance with Assad – a member of the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam – was a cornerstone of its powerbase in a predominantly Sunni area cautious of Shi’ite Iran.
Assad’s departure shattered a pivotal axis of affect, eroding Tehran’s potential to mission energy and maintain its community of militia teams throughout the Center East, significantly to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. A senior Iranian official advised Reuters on Monday it had opened a direct line of communication with the rebels in an try and “stop a hostile trajectory”.
Israel’s year-long navy marketing campaign has already severely weakened the navy energy of Hezbollah and Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza.
Assad supplied Iran an important conduit for arms shipments to rebuild Hezbollah. Jonathan Panikoff, a former US deputy nationwide intelligence officer for the Center East, mentioned his ouster might make it tougher for Hezbollah to rearm, growing the prospects {that a} ceasefire with Israel agreed final month would maintain.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the ousting of Assad as an “historic day” that adopted the blows delivered by Israel in opposition to Iran and Hezbollah. He mentioned he had ordered Israeli forces to grab areas alongside the bordering buffer zone to make sure Israel’s safety.
Israeli forces carried out air strikes in opposition to suspected chemical weapons and missile websites on Monday to stop them from falling into the palms of hostile actors, the overseas minister mentioned.
Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher on the Institute for Nationwide Safety Research (INSS), a suppose tank for Israeli safety coverage based mostly in Tel Aviv, mentioned that – regardless of the danger of a protracted interval of chaos and violence in Syria – Assad’s fall may gain advantage Israel.
“Regardless of considerations over the rise of extremist components close to the border and the dearth of a transparent authority in cost, the navy capabilities of the rebels, of their numerous kinds, aren’t corresponding to these of Iran and its proxies,” she mentioned.
CALLS FOR NEW CONSTITUTION, ELECTIONS
Marwan al-Muasher, vice chairman for research on the US-based Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace, mentioned Assad’s exit might present a chance for Syrians to determine an inclusive political governance by way of an orderly transition that prevented an influence vacuum that might permit extremist teams to realize ascendancy.
Hadi Al-Bahra, the pinnacle of Syria’s fundamental opposition overseas, advised Reuters on the sidelines of the Doha Discussion board on Sunday that Syria ought to have an 18-month transition interval to determine “a secure, impartial, and quiet surroundings” without cost elections.
Al-Bahra, President of the Syrian Nationwide Coalition, mentioned Syria ought to draft a structure inside six months, on which the primary election could be a referendum. He mentioned the opposition had requested state workers to report back to work till the ability transition, and warranted them that they might not be harmed.
However Syria’s political opposition has little affect on the bottom in Damascus, the place armed teams maintain sway, and lots of Syria watchers stay skeptic.
HTS’ chief, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, addressed large crowds on the medieval Umayyad Mosque in central Damascus on Sunday, promising a brand new chapter for the area and that Syria would change into “a beacon for the Islamic nation”.
There are, nevertheless, questions on whether or not Golani’s type of strict Islamist ideology could be accepted all through Syria, a rustic the place a reasonable and liberal type of Islam prevails and with a combined Christian, Alawite, Druze and Kurdish inhabitants.
Each Western and Center Jap officers expressed concern concerning the unity of Syria, with key territories, together with these alongside borders with Iraq and Turkey, beneath the management of various sects and ethnic teams: these divisions, which have been entrenched by a bloody 2011 rebellion, current a rising risk to nationwide stability.
The analysts and diplomats who spoke to Reuters warned of the danger of a free-for-all battle – akin to the wake of the toppling of Gaddafi in Libya or Saddam in Iraq – by which armed teams from totally different Islamist, ethnic and ideological shades struggle for supremacy over territory. Such a failed state in Syria would have a serious influence on neighbors Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan, they mentioned.
RIVALRY AMONG REBELS
Syria’s opposition contains a broad spectrum from reasonable teams such because the SNA to jihadi components inside the HTS, every with its personal imaginative and prescient for Syria’s future, starting from secular democracy to Islamic governance.
“Every one among these insurgent group is vying for supremacy; every one desires to be in cost. Every one thinks they are often Bashar al-Assad, and every one has allegiance to a overseas social gathering funding his group,” mentioned al-Sager. “They are going to conflict except there’s an effort by the UN and a few regional nations with affect to unify them.”
Turkish-backed forces dominate within the north, whereas US-aligned Kurdish teams, such because the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), maintain sway in northeastern Syria.
In an indication of the tensions between the teams, the Turkey-backed SNA seized swathes of territory, together with town of Tel Refaat, from US-backed Kurdish forces firstly of the latest offensive. On Sunday, a Turkish safety supply mentioned the rebels entered the northern metropolis of Manbij after pushing the Kurds again once more.
Nonetheless, some analysts say that an orderly transition is feasible, arguing that well-established authorities establishments in Damascus stay able to finishing up duties.
In addition they level to the rebels’ expertise of governing in enclaves throughout Syria that they’ve managed in some instances for greater than a decade. The insurgent alliance, led by HTS, made some extent of providing clemency for members of the safety forces when it seized Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest metropolis, late final month and promised the sizeable minority populations that it might protect their lifestyle.
However Hassan Hassan, an knowledgeable on Islamist teams within the Center East based mostly in Washington, mentioned that considerations persevered amongst these minority teams now that the rebels had captured Damascus.
“There may be uncertainty about what’s going to occur subsequent, significantly about non secular affect and the way (Islamic) legal guidelines could evolve,” he mentioned.
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