Dhubri was not a seat Rakibul Hussain wished to contest from. The small city on the banks of the Brahmaputra was a bastion of fragrance baron Badruddin Ajmal who appeared to have a stranglehold on the Decrease Assam constituency that was rejigged throughout a controversial delimitation course of.
The 59-year-old deputy chief of Opposition within the Assam meeting feared a tricky contest. Ajmal, who headed the All India United Democratic Entrance (AIUDF), had registered three consecutive thumping victories from the Muslim-majority constituency, besting the Congress. Beleaguered after the demise of his mentor Tarun Gogoi, the state Congress, nonetheless, didn’t pay heed to his remonstrations. “I didn’t select Dhubri. The get together did its personal survey and advised me that if I have been to contest there, we might win. And that’s what occurred,” he stated.
On June 4, Hussain’s shock victory over Ajmal from the Dhubri seat shone as one of many Congress’s most consequential triumphs because the five-time legislator posted the best electoral victory margin in these Lok Sabha polls –1,012,476 votes. Extra importantly, the win was consultant of two different broader phenomena that buoyed the Opposition to its finest exhibiting in a decade. The primary was the consolidation of the Muslim vote behind the Congress and the Indian Nationwide Developmental Inclusive Alliance bloc, and the Opposition’s better-than-expected efficiency within the Northeast, a area that has historically voted in consonance with the federal government on the Centre.
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The son of Congress chief and two-time legislator Alhaz Nurul Hussain, Hussain was born on 7 August 1964. He accomplished his education from Nagaon Authorities Boys Greater Secondary Faculty in 1979, secured a BA diploma from Nagaon Faculty in 1984 and did a masters in political science (by way of distance studying) from the Aligarh Muslim College.
In 2001, he took the political plunge after getting a Congress ticket to struggle from Samaguri, a seat his father additionally represented. He received and instantly turned a minister underneath chief minister Tarun Gogoi.
He went on to win from the seat 5 consecutive instances, changing into one of the crucial profitable politicians within the state. Regardless of the Bharatiya Janata Occasion’s inroads in Assam up to now decade, Hussain was in a position to retain his seat comfortably, due partially to the sizable Muslim voters within the constituency. In 2021, he defeated the BJP’s Anil Saikia by a margin of 26,000 votes even because the ruling get together received 60 seats, in comparison with the Congress’s 29. “I’ve been profitable from Samaguri since 2001, whether or not the wave was in favour of Congress, or not. Although I will likely be extra lively in New Delhi any more, I’ll proceed to be related to Assam and the individuals of Samaguri,” Hussain stated.
From 2002 to 2016, he served underneath Tarun Gogoi dealing with varied portfolios – dwelling, data expertise, border space improvement, data and public relations, tourism, panchayat and rural improvement and setting and forests.
His stint as minister for setting and forests from 2011 to 2016 was significantly controversial, given the spike in rhinoceros poaching within the Kaziranga Nationwide Park. Poachers killed 103 rhinos within the state in that length — a considerably excessive quantity compared to the earlier years (38 killed from 2006 to 2010). The killings sparked an uproar and opponents pointed the finger at his complicity however Hussain defended himself, blaming extremists for getting concerned in poaching and utilizing assault rifles similar to AK-47 and AK-56.
However the allegations have continued. “If he wins (from Dhubri) and stays in Delhi many wild animals within the state will likely be protected. If we will ship Hussain to Delhi for five years, I can withdraw an enormous quantity of police pressure from Kaziranga,” Assam chief minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, who was as soon as very near Hussain, stated.
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Surrounded on three sides by the Brahmaputra and Gangadhar rivers, Dhubri has been an necessary a part of Assam’s historical past for a lot of centuries. Thought-about the gateway to Assam, the Muslim-majority district has an eclectic combine of individuals and is a vital enterprise centre.
The area shares a 61-km boundary with Bangladesh, most of which is alongside the Brahmaputra because it enters the neighbouring nation and is crammed with quite a few chars (sand bars) making it troublesome for safety forces to patrol and simpler for undocumented immigrants to cross over or smuggle items starting from cattle to medicine.
The Dhubri Lok Sabha seat is likely one of the three amongst 14 in Assam the place Muslims are in majority; since Independence, it’s considered one of a handful of constituencies throughout India the place the parliamentarian has at all times been a Muslim. Earlier than final yr’s delimitation train, which noticed a large redrawing of boundaries of the state’s 126 meeting and 14 parliamentary seats, there have been 10 meeting constituencies throughout three districts underneath the Dhubri Lok Sabha seat. However now it has 11 meeting seats – 4 new ones added and three outdated ones eliminated – unfold throughout 5 districts.
Delimitation has additionally elevated the variety of voters in Dhubri. In 2019, the constituency had 1,858,566 voters. However now it has jumped to 2,643,403 — a 42% improve in 5 years. This has induced fevered hypothesis round the potential for gerrymandering and its potential impression on voting patterns this time round.
For over three many years between 1971 and 2004, Dhubri was a Congress stronghold. However since 2009, Ajmal, the fragrance baron who based the AIUDF in 2005 with a mass base amongst Bengali-speaking Muslims, a lot of whom migrated to the area from erstwhile East Pakistan, established a vice-like grip on the seat.
Defeating Ajmal in his dwelling turf was not straightforward. However Hussain saved the give attention to the Congress’s nationwide agenda and the BJP authorities’s insurance policies that he argued have been towards Muslims. He attributed his win to anger and disenchantment towards campaigns by the state authorities towards youngster marriages and deaths in police encounters, during which Muslims have been affected. “The open deal between the BJP and AIUDF to assist one another was another excuse that turned voters in direction of the Congress,” he stated.
In the long run, the outcomes confirmed the Muslims had largely consolidated behind Hussain, a truth acknowledged by Sarma as nicely. “Earlier AIUDF and Congress each used to get a share of the Muslim votes, however this time virtually the complete Muslim vote shifted to Congress,” Sarma stated. Hussain’s victory indicators a churn in Assam’s politics, and he believes the indicators will solely get clearer in 2026, when the state goes to the polls. “The Congress will win.”