An Indian response to the provocation by Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser, Mohammed Yunus, was inevitable. Whereas on a go to to China, Yunus had known as India’s Northeast ‘landlocked’. The comment by Yunus alluded to the notion of Bangladesh being the guardian of entry to the Indian Northeast by way of the ocean routes because the land route ran by way of a constricted hall. Yunus advised that this geographical positioning presents vital alternatives for China, proposing that Bangladesh might function an extension of the Chinese language financial system by facilitating manufacturing and commerce actions aimed toward each China and international markets.
No Let-Up In Tensions
The Indian response and the precise interpretation of what Yunus mentioned and meant are vital points within the rising standoff between India and Bangladesh. Regardless of the one-on-one assembly on the BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Adviser Mohammad Yunus, there seems no let-up within the rising tensions between the 2 nations. The Indian response has been to place an finish to the June 2020 initiative, underneath which India allowed Bangladeshi export cargo to transit by way of Indian land customs stations enroute to 3rd nations, through Indian ports and airports. The New Delhi airport is one such vital outlet for Bangladesh. This association facilitated smoother commerce flows for Bangladesh’s exports to nations reminiscent of Bhutan, Nepal, and Myanmar – specifically, to nations the place items moved by land routes.
On April 8, put up the provocation by Yunus, India rescinded this facility, citing vital congestion at its airports and ports. This led to logistical delays and elevated prices for Indian exporters. Internationally, that is being interpreted as a response to what Yunus mentioned and meant. The destructive impact on Bangladesh exports, particularly after the 37% tariff additionally imposed by the US, will certainly be mind-boggling, due to the uncalled-for and pointless buccaneering by Yunus underneath Jamaat strain. Yunus and the Jamaat management could also be unaware of the truth that India has a significant contribution to the expansion of the garment trade in Bangladesh – as a lot as $1.20 billion value of cotton yarn and uncooked cotton value $556.84 million have been exported by India to Bangladesh in 2023.
The Attainable Chinese language Airfield
India can also be finding out experiences of a Chinese language plan to construct an airfield in Bangladesh’s Lalmonirhat district, which is bound to be a problem for New Delhi’s safety pursuits alongside the jap border, together with the Rooster’s Neck space, that’s, the Siliguri Hall. The realm, thought-about a strategic vulnerability for India, is a sliver of territory that gives entry to all transportation and power arteries to Northeast India, in addition to a petroleum pipeline to Nepal. A number of energy grids crisscross the slim territory. About 45-50 kilometres to the north is the strategic Chumbi Valley, separating the Indian state of Sikkim and Bhutan, the place the well-known (although some name it notorious) ‘Trijunction’ exists. Adjoining to it’s Doklam, which each and every Indian by now in all probability is aware of about, due to the 72-day lengthy standoff between Indian and Chinese language forces in 2017.
So, is that this to be an airfield to be occupied by the Bangladesh air pressure? Or, will the Chinese language air pressure place its property right here underneath a strategic partnership settlement? If property are deployed right here for the twin objective of sustaining an eye fixed over the Bay of Bengal (a lot much less doubtless) and posing a risk to India’s pursuits, it will surpass preparations that China has with even Pakistan, in PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan areas. So, at finest, this have to be seen pretty much as good psychological warfare to hem India in. Lalmonirhat is simply 15 kilometres from the India-Bangladesh border. It will not be unsuitable to anticipate the Chinese language air pressure to show an unprofessional strategy in direction of defence and strategic cooperation with Bangladesh have been it to put property at such an airfield.
A Slew Of Pakistani Visits
For the reason that finish of 2024, the Pakistan military has been making a beeline for Bangladesh. In January 2025, a high-level ISI delegation led by Main Normal Shahid Amir Afsar had visited Dhaka, marking one of many first vital engagements between the ISI and Bangladeshi officers in a long time. The agenda in all probability centered on navy and intelligence cooperation, together with discussions on establishing an intelligence-sharing community between the 2 nations. The target of that step doesn’t want a second evaluation. For the primary time since 1971, the Pakistan military is about to coach Bangladeshi navy personnel. Beginning
February 2025, coaching periods have been to be performed in a number of cantonments throughout Bangladesh, starting with the one in Mymensingh, all supervised by senior officers of the Pakistan Military.
The Bangladesh military views itself as skilled, and second to none. Its management seeks to showcase itself in varied UN missions and, usually, overreaches itself in projection. Why such a pressure wants to herald Pakistani coaching advisers is questionable. Can they be makes an attempt at establishing intelligence bases? As I’ve all the time mentioned, India left Bangladesh after defeating and evicting the Pakistan Military manner again in January 1972, however Pakistan by no means left Bangladesh. It all the time maintained a shadowy presence there. Sheikh Hasina’s authorities and Awami League cadres ensured that Pakistani Islamism remained underneath management. Her authorities additionally resisted former Pakistan President Zia ul Haq’s notorious technique of utilizing Islamism to drive an anti-India circle round and inside India. Now with Hasina gone and the Awami League itself underneath extreme pressure, the potential to revive the Zia plan appears greater than ever earlier than.
Demons At Each Nook?
A high-level delegation from Pakistan’s Overseas Workplace is scheduled to go to Bangladesh this month, marking a major step in revitalising bilateral ties, which have remained largely dormant for over a decade. Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Overseas Minister, is slated to go to Dhaka on April 22 on the invitation of Bangladesh’s Overseas Affairs Adviser, Md Touhid Hossain. Equally, Pakistan Overseas Secretary Amna Baloch is scheduled to reach for a Overseas Secretary-level assembly on April 17. The visits may be seen as a part of efforts to revive the outdated relationship.
Is India seeing demons at each nook, and are Indian analysts giving Pakistan and Bangladesh greater than what their strategic value deserves? These are related questions within the face of an apparent try by a non-strategically-inclined Chief Advisor to straight goal India. Your complete controversy in regards to the ‘landlocked’ nature of Northeast India was an apparent crimson herring. That it was made regardless of full information of a a lot sought-after assembly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi per week later factors to deliberate instigation.
The final of the Pakistan-Bangladesh shenanigans is but to unfold whilst there’s a rising impatience in India in regards to the intransigence on show. Thus far, the Indian response has invariably been measured and efficient. That is the strategy that normally wins strategically perched awkward conditions. The federal government wants appreciation for dealing with this effectively.
(The author is a Member of the Nationwide Catastrophe Administration Authority, Chancellor of the Central College of Kashmir, and Former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps.)
Disclaimer: These are the private opinions of the creator