Bills ‘blunder’ wasn’t so bad, but they need help (Davante Adams?): Sando’s Pick Six

One hour handed earlier than Buffalo Payments coach Sean McDermott appeared for his postgame information convention Sunday.

Criticism rained down on him within the meantime.

“Baffling game-management choices by the Payments,” J.J. Watt wrote.

“There will probably be worse losses within the NFL this 12 months than the one the Payments simply took,” ESPN’s Mike Greenberg added. “However there might not be a dumber one.”

What was McDermott going to say when he lastly emerged to face the general public following Buffalo’s excruciating defeat, 23-20 at Houston?

The Decide Six column leads this week with a take a look at the Payments’ first disaster of this younger season. We discover why the game-management critics are overreacting, what McDermott’s postgame commentary revealed (good and dangerous) and why Buffalo wants to contemplate making a transfer for Davante Adams by the commerce deadline. The complete menu:

• Breaking down Sean McDermott
• Commanders/Browns epic distinction
• Aaron Rodgers’ wanted reckoning
• Vance Joseph’s D saving Broncos
• Dan Campbell’s superb reversal
• 2-minute drill: Falcons, Jags, extra

1. Let’s break down this Payments defeat and its implications from the related angles.

• Recreation administration overreaction: The Payments misplaced in regulation regardless of taking on possession with 32 seconds remaining in a recreation tied 20-20. It appeared calamitous.

The Payments someway misplaced this recreation in regulation pic.twitter.com/3OxHaM6o0q

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 6, 2024

It was definitely painful. But it surely wasn’t felonious.

Houston holding all three timeouts when Buffalo took over possession was the important thing variable exonerating McDermott.

Sure, the Payments had quarterback Josh Allen throw deep on all three performs from Buffalo’s 2-yard line earlier than punting, at which level Houston took over on the plus-46 with seven seconds left. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud accomplished a 5-yard cross, Houston referred to as timeout and kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn made the profitable 59-yard subject purpose.

Crushing for Buffalo. But when the Payments had run the ball thrice as an alternative of passing, we might estimate six seconds coming off the clock for every working play, with Houston calling a timeout to cease the clock after every one. Take away one other seven seconds for a punt and Houston would emerge with the identical seven seconds the Texans wound up with anyway.

The Texans would have exhausted all three timeouts within the course of, so they’d have wanted to finish a cross to the sideline as an alternative of towards the center of the sphere in establishing the profitable kick. Groups do this on a regular basis.

Houston additionally probably would have wanted to achieve extra yards to get in place for the sphere purpose, assuming Buffalo had gained some yardage on the bottom. However the tradeoff for the Payments would have been depriving Allen of possibilities to make massive performs.

Allen’s first cross, thrown 16 yards previous the road of scrimmage, produced contact between the receiver and defensive again, leading to a flag for offensive cross interference. Typically these go the opposite manner. The second cross, thrown 42 yards downfield, had an outdoor shot at connecting. On third-and-10, Curtis Samuel was large open over the center 18 yards downfield and Allen noticed him, however strain compelled the throw to return up brief.

“If McDermott didn’t have a Tier 1 QB, he would have achieved an alternate method,” a coach from one other group stated.

• The nice from McDermott’s postgame: Anticipation constructed after the sport because the minutes turned to an hour earlier than McDermott lastly appeared. Would a still-simmering McDermott get defensive? Would he sidestep accountability or shift blame to others?

When McDermott emerged, he was cool, calm, collected and accountable. He stated he wished he had run on first down earlier than reassessing his technique, however he didn’t blame offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

“Both manner, we’ve got to do a greater job, and that begins with me,” McDermott stated. “I like Josh with the ball in his palms. Once more, environment friendly offense was the right method there, and I didn’t have us do this. So, once more, you study from that.”

To a Payments cynic, this was the most recent instance of Buffalo developing on the improper facet of a crucial state of affairs — not practically as dangerous as botching the ultimate 13 seconds at Kansas Metropolis within the playoffs after the 2021 season, however notable sufficient to incorporate someplace down the checklist. My level is just that McDermott might have been uptight and defiant, however was not, and that was welcome.

• The much less good from McDermott’s postgame: Whereas it’s refreshing to listen to him say classes may be discovered, moderately than pushing again, McDermott did hand over defensive play-calling duties to Bobby Babich this season, which implies he ought to have a transparent technique for dealing with these conditions. If McDermott needed shorter passes thrown or needed to run the ball on first down, that needs to be spelled out upfront.

In his protection, nonetheless, this explicit state of affairs was exceedingly uncommon. This was solely the second time since 2000, per TruMedia, {that a} group took possession inside its personal 5-yard line with 1:00 to 0:30 remaining in regulation, the rating tied and the defensive group holding all three timeouts.

• Why Davante Adams: On the buying and selling deadline one 12 months in the past, I contended that the Payments wanted McDermott to indicate he had one other gear greater than they wanted a participant from one other group, as a result of the depth he dropped at seemingly each state of affairs stored his group in a perpetual state of chaos on the most crucial instances.

With Allen finishing 9 of 30 passes towards the Texans for the bottom single-game completion price of his profession, and with the Payments having now misplaced ugly to AFC contenders in successive weeks, buying Adams might add firepower on the sphere and a few wanted adrenaline within the locker room. The Payments have to do one thing to assist Allen, or he’ll battle to make it by way of the season.

Adams might give the Payments what they misplaced within the Stefon Diggs commerce with out bringing again the historical past and baggage.

2. The distinction between the Washington Commanders and Cleveland Browns couldn’t be clearer.

Washington’s 34-13 blowout over Cleveland showcased two extremes on the karma continuum.

The Commanders’ marriage between offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Jayden Daniels seems fastidiously deliberate, virtually fated. It’s been an ideal pairing to maximise manufacturing straight away. Daniels leads the league in EPA per cross play for an offense averaging 31 factors per recreation. The Washington franchise is reborn and stuffed with hope.

The Browns’ marriage between coach Kevin Stefanski, new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and quarterback Deshaun Watson feels compelled, awkward and more and more hopeless. Watson ranks thirty first in EPA per cross play for an offense averaging 14.2 factors per recreation. Cleveland feels caught.

“Drawback is, what do they do to spark the group?” an exec from one other group stated. “Their palms are tied.”

Watson’s contract makes it so, for now.

“We’re not altering quarterbacks,” Stefanski stated.

Watson’s EPA per cross play ranks 618th out of 621 quarterbacks who began the primary 5 video games of a season since 2000. The desk beneath exhibits the place all qualifying Browns quarterbacks rank among the many 621. Brian Hoyer by no means knew how a lot he’d be missed. (Not pictured, 2023 Browns alum Joe Flacco, who now has 5 landing passes, no interceptions and a 115.6 passer score for Indianapolis.)

For years, Stefanski fielded run-oriented offenses shielding quarterback publicity to tough conditions. From 2018 by way of 2023, his offenses in Minnesota and Cleveland handed 51 % of the time on early downs within the first 28 minutes of video games, earlier than time and rating differential exert extra affect on play calling. The Browns’ price is 63 % this season, good for a No. 3 rating on the Cook dinner Index by way of 5 video games.

“It’s like they wish to be Kansas Metropolis and they’re simply forcing it,” a defensive coordinator from one other group stated.

Cleveland has been heading this manner with Watson within the lineup. The cross price in these conditions was 46 % with Watson within the lineup for six video games in 2022 and 53 % for the six video games he began final season.

From afar, it feels as if the Browns are making an organizational resolution to open up their offense with Watson to justify the $230 million they dedicated to him.

“You had been making an attempt to guard Joe Flacco by handing it off final 12 months,” an offensive coach from one other group stated. “With this quarterback (Watson), you are able to do no matter you need, supposedly, so that you attempt to, however it’s not in your DNA. It’s cool whether it is working, but when it isn’t working, guys are standing round one another saying, ‘Wait a minute, why are we doing this?’”

Operating again Nick Chubb’s absence is a part of the equation. Cleveland additionally added Dorsey, the previous Payments coordinator who loved success in Buffalo but additionally leaned towards the cross (Buffalo has turn into extra run-oriented since his departure). The Browns, whose offensive line has been battered by accidents for the second consecutive 12 months, additionally misplaced acclaimed line coach Invoice Callahan to Tennessee. His voice might have been a robust one.

“I don’t know what they’re doing,” one other exec stated. “No identification. Possibly it’s Chubb not being there. They can’t assist however have taken a step again with out Callahan. It doesn’t look like that is Stefanski’s offense.”

Chubb returned to observe this week as he recovers from a critical knee damage. We’ll see if something modifications as soon as he’s again within the lineup.

3. It might be time for a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers reckoning.

With three interceptions and 4 sacks Sunday, Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered by way of one among his worst profession begins.

Rodgers’ EPA per cross play (-0.38) in the course of the 23-17 defeat to the Minnesota Vikings was his ninth-worst in 247 regular-season and postseason begins when he tried at the very least 5 passes. His efficiency in a 10-9 defeat to Denver final week produced his Thirteenth-worst EPA-per-pass-play recreation.

For years, Rodgers’ incomplete passes have been as spectacular as some quarterbacks’ accomplished ones. That’s been true a lot this season and was true at instances Sunday, however Rodgers’ age-related limitations are additionally clear.

“He seemed nice towards New England a pair weeks in the past, however he’s banged up and at 40 can’t speed up by way of the B-gap the way in which he used to,” a coach who watched the Jets play Sunday stated.

Rodgers has taken 13 sacks this season, which isn’t near his profession excessive by way of 5 video games (he has taken 25, 21 and 19 sacks by way of 5 video games beforehand, however he additionally might elude the push to make massive performs then).

“You realize the slide after which take two steps after which he kicks out of that each time in Inexperienced Bay?” the coach added. “He slides, takes two steps and will get sacked now. He has to take a look at the movie and be trustworthy with himself and say, ‘I’m banged up, not transferring that rapidly anymore, so throw it away. Extra 55-60 % (completion price) video games, not 70.”

The chart above is an up to date model of the one we printed final week. The Jets’ offense has turn into as statistically dangerous because it was earlier than Rodgers arrived.

4. Former Broncos coach Vance Joseph is doing a stable for present Broncos coach Sean Payton.

It’s been an excellent run over the 379 days since Denver allowed 726 yards to the Miami Dolphins in a 70-20 defeat that any defensive coordinator would have a tough time dwelling down.

• The place the Joseph-coordinated Broncos protection ranked in EPA per play by way of 4 video games final season: final within the 32-team league, and 798th out of 798 groups since 2000 when trying solely on the first 4 video games of all seasons.

• The place the Joseph-coordinated Broncos protection ranks in EPA per play since then: fourth out of 32 groups, which is the main purpose, by far, that Denver has a profitable report (11-8) over that span, together with 3-2 in 2024.

The Broncos rank twenty seventh in offensive EPA per play because the blowout defeat at Miami, together with thirtieth this season. The protection is letting them survive whereas taking part in rookie quarterback Bo Nix earlier than Nix seems prepared.

Pat Surtain II’s interception and 100-yard landing return off Gardner Minshew within the Broncos’ 34-18 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders produced the biggest single-play EPA change within the NFL since 2019, per TruMedia. The swing was so excessive (12.5) as a result of the Raiders had first-and-goal from the 5, a state of affairs that nearly all the time results in factors.

A 100 YARD PICK 6!! @PatSurtainll pic.twitter.com/Xh3CG05U9J

— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024

Denver is the eighth group since 2000 to provide at the very least 5.0 EPA on protection in every of its first 5 video games, per TruMedia. The present Vikings are additionally on that checklist. Denver ranks first in blitz price this season (45 %), adopted by the Vikings (42 %).

The Broncos haven’t simply feasted on dangerous offenses just like the one they dominated Sunday. They handed Kansas Metropolis its second-worst offensive EPA recreation (Week 8 final 12 months) and Buffalo (Week 10) its third-worst because the begin of final season, a span of 43 mixed video games for these high-powered offenses led by Tier 1 quarterbacks.

Additionally of be aware: What number of groups have one among their former head coaches on employees, serving to the present coach succeed? It certainly helps that Broncos possession modified since Joseph was their coach from 2017 to 2018. Nonetheless, it’s uncommon.

“It tells you his dismount was actually good when he was fired,” a veteran coach stated. “It says rather a lot in regards to the particular person. Sean (Payton) might have scapegoated him in a heartbeat.”

5. Dan Campbell insisted he knew how shut the Lions had been. Did you consider him?

The Detroit Lions’ Week 5 bye ought to let followers and the group savor one of many extra outstanding achievements within the league not too long ago.

Dan Campbell, 4-19-1 in his first 24 video games because the Lions’ coach, has made all of it the way in which again, night his report at 27-27-1 in Detroit’s victory over Seattle earlier than the bye. His report by way of 24 video games was worse — a lot worse — than the 9-14-1 opening mark posted by his predecessor, Matt Patricia. But it surely’s not the way you begin, proper? It’s the way you end.

The Lions personal a 23-8 report since then. Solely the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (24-7) have a greater report over that span.

Campbell was not the primary Lions coach to stumble early. However he’s the one one to tug off a reversal even near the one he’s managed to this point.

The desk beneath exhibits what occurred subsequent for the ten Lions coaches with the worst data by way of 24 video games. Campbell’s bounce from .188 by way of 24 video games to .734 since then represents the largest achieve in win price amongst these coaches. It’s not shut, both.

The Lions opened the 2022 season with a 1-6 report, punctuated by a 31-27 residence defeat to the Miami Dolphins.

“I understand how shut we’re,” Campbell stated on the time.

Did you consider him?

“We do not know how usually that might occur,” a veteran coach stated, “as a result of most coaches are fired earlier than we discover out.”

The Lions have caught with shedding coaches lengthy sufficient to see just a few, together with Jim Schwartz, get pleasure from some success. The important thing for Campbell was ending his second season with a 9-8 report after a 1-6 begin.

“It speaks to a much bigger image as we get to the center of the season and also you begin to hear about coaches on the recent seat,” an exec from one other group stated. “Typically, circumstances are out of your management. The nice franchises discover a strategy to persist with what they’ve and experience it out a little bit bit.”

Campbell’s willingness to shake up his employees in the course of the season is notable. He took away play-calling duties from his first offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn, and ultimately promoted Ben Johnson to exchange him. Campbell has additionally made in-season employees modifications on protection, though he has caught with Aaron Glenn as coordinator.

6. Two-minute drill: Cousins’ method for 509 yards, and keys to the clock

• Kirk Cousins’ 509-yard passing evening within the Atlanta Falcons’ extra time victory towards Tampa Bay was the twenty seventh 500-yard passing recreation in league historical past, counting playoffs. It’s tied for fifteenth on the checklist, which I’ve modified in a desk beneath to incorporate yards per completion.

When Norm Van Brocklin set the report in 1951, he obtained his 554 yards on solely 27 completions, good for a 20.5-yard common per completion. Cousins wanted 43 completions for his 509 yards (12.1 common).

It’s outstanding that Van Brocklin’s report has stood for as long as the league has turn into increasingly more pass-oriented.

It is superb that with all the good passing that has taken place, Norm Van Brocklin’s single-game report (554) nonetheless stands 73 years later.

Van Brocklin wasn’t even the Rams’ starter when he set the report.

Basic photograph right here capturing really feel of that period as injured starter Bob… pic.twitter.com/9WMrViE306

— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) October 4, 2024

Arguably the largest accomplishment for the Falcons was snapping the ball with 12 seconds left in regulation, gaining 14 yards and spiking the ball in time to kick the overtime-forcing subject purpose with one second left.

Groups have sometimes wanted greater than 12 seconds on the sport clock to execute spikes because the NFL relocated umpires to the offensive backfield in 2016. Limiting good points to 10 yards is mostly required to protect ample time for a spike. Groups additionally instruct receivers to go down rapidly close to a hash, then get the ball to the umpire instantly for environment friendly recognizing.

“The final rule is, if you’ll do this, you’d higher be at residence,” a veteran coach stated, alluding to what he sees as sympathetic clock operators in residence markets, a notion disputed by the league. “I don’t assume they’d have gotten that in the event that they had been on the street.”

Different keys to this play working: The Bucs allowed receiver Drake London to have a free launch, and so they allowed London to rise from the bottom unobstructed.

“The distinctive half is, you often achieve 10 or much less yards and fall close to the hash, however this was an 8-yard cross (when it comes to air yards) with a 6-yard run after catch — the man didn’t instantly go down,” one other coach stated.

The Jaguars pulled off one thing related in 2020 once they used 11 seconds to achieve 15 yards on a working play towards Minnesota, taking the clock from 0:13 to 0:02 earlier than spiking the ball. Jacksonville missed what would have been the profitable 62-yard attempt.

The Cowboys infamously ran a QB draw with 14 seconds left in a 2021 playoff recreation towards the 49ers, working out of time after gamers aligned in formation within the umpire’s manner earlier than he might spot the ball.

• The Arizona Cardinals entered Week 5 with a 5-45 report since 2000 when trailing by precisely 10 factors within the fourth quarter, close to the league common for win price. Make that 6-45 after their comeback victory at San Francisco.

The 49ers have now blown 10-point leads within the fourth quarter twice in three weeks and a league-high 5 instances since 2017, when Kyle Shanahan turned their coach.

San Francisco’s 12-5 report (.706) in these video games since 2017 is the NFL’s worst by win price. It additionally consists of two of the NFL’s 4 postseason defeats since then. The remainder of the league is 396-37 (.915) in these video games total since 2017.

This loss to Arizona was particularly odd as a result of the 49ers misplaced kicker Jake Moody to an ankle damage, main Shanahan to go for it on fourth-and-23 late within the third quarter as an alternative of making an attempt a 45-yard subject purpose that might have stretched the result in 26-13.

• How’s this for a mixed Lamar Jackson–Joe Burrow stat line: 56-of-81 passing (69 %) for 740 yards, 9 touchdowns and one interception. Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens scored the 41-38 victory in extra time in a recreation that includes 16 cross performs gaining greater than 15 yards (eight per group).

MAKE SOMETHING HAPPEN!!!!!!!!!!

Tune in on CBS! pic.twitter.com/e2u8hXsNqI

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 6, 2024

The Ravens now rank twenty third and the Bengals thirtieth in defensive EPA per play, which is the draw back for these groups. However on at the present time, with these top-five quarterbacks, something appeared potential Sunday.

• One other week, one other Minnesota Vikings victory powered by the Brian Flores-coordinated protection. Andrew Van Ginkel’s decide six off Aaron Rodgers was the pivotal play within the victory over the Jets.

This was the fifth time in 5 video games Minnesota’s protection completed with at the very least 5.0 EPA. No group since 2000 has had an extended streak to open a season. Eight different groups have achieved it within the first 5 video games, together with the 2016 Vikings. The Broncos joined the checklist Sunday as effectively.

• The beforehand 0-4 Jacksonville Jaguars discovered a strategy to get Trevor Lawrence and their offense going after a tough begin. Was it so simple as going through the Indianapolis Colts’ protection? Name it a contributing issue.

Lawrence accomplished 28 of 34 passes (82 %) for 371 yards and two touchdowns with one interception within the 37-34 victory.

The 4 different quarterbacks Indy confronted this season — Malik Willis, C.J. Stroud, Justin Fields and Caleb Williams — weren’t fairly that environment friendly collectively. However they fared very effectively towards the Colts, because the desk beneath exhibits.

• The New York Giants upset the Seahawks in Seattle 29-20 with a breakout efficiency from their offense. This was their first recreation since 2019 that includes a 250-yard passer (Daniel Jones), 100-yard rusher (Tyrone Tracy) and 100-yard receiver (Darius Slayton). The Giants had been with out injured main receiver magnet Malik Nabers. They had been with out injured beginning working again Devin Singletary. We’ve heard loads about Saquon Barkley’s departure to Philadelphia in free company.

The stat sheet says the Giants gained this recreation on protection (+5.3 EPA) and particular groups (+5.3 EPA), however not on offense (-1.6). That determine on offense consists of an 11.1-point EPA swing on the fumble Seattle returned 102 yards for a landing, after the Giants practically scored. With out that one-off play, the Giants may need gained extra comfortably.

• It’s an excellent factor for the Giants that their protection is taking part in effectively recently, on condition that their former security, Xavier McKinney, has intercepted a cross in all 5 video games with Inexperienced Bay this season. The longest streak in a season since 1970, per Professional Soccer Reference: six video games by seven gamers (Trevon Diggs, Brian Russell, Doug Evans, Barry Wilburn, Lester Hayes, Eric Harris and Mel Blount).

• The Dolphins’ 15-10 victory at New England was something however fairly. Nonetheless, Miami tying for the Week 5 lead with 12 explosive performs (runs gaining at the very least 12 yards, passes gaining at the very least 16) was welcome for an offense that has cratered since shedding quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

(Photograph of Sean McDermott: Alex Slitz / Getty Photos)