New Delhi: With voting in Karnataka lower than a month away, each the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) have dubbed one another the ‘B-team’ of the Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP), which already has its fingers full coping with the fallout of its ticket distribution technique. Towards this backdrop, ThePrint takes a take a look at how these three mainstays of Karnataka politics have fared towards one another in direct contests.
An evaluation by ThePrint exhibits that between 2004 and 2018, half of Karnataka’s 224 meeting seats have witnessed a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress — with BJP sustaining a strike charge of 60 per cent in these seats.
Equally, in seats that witnessed a direct contest between the Congress and the JD(S) from 2004 till now, the H.D. Deve Gowda-led occasion has maintained a strike charge of 52 per cent.
On how the dynamic between these three events has advanced over time, political analysts say 2004 was the “transition election” when the first contest shifted from Congress vs JD(S) to Congress vs BJP. The election that 12 months concluded with a fractured mandate; the BJP had gained 79 seats, the Congress 65 and the JD(S) 58.
Importantly, no occasion has been capable of breach the bulk mark of 123 seats by itself in Karnataka since 2004. The Congress got here closest to it in 2013, when it gained 122 seats.
Writing for Moneycontrol earlier this month, political analyst Sanjay Kumar identified that the JD(S) has a “sizeable presence” solely within the southern Karnataka area, whereas the Congress’s votes are “extensively unfold out” throughout the state.
“Whereas this has been to the drawback of the Congress, it might even have a constructive impression. A minor swing (4 per cent) of votes in favour of the Congress, away from BJP and JD(S) can provide a majority of seats to the Congress occasion in 2023,” wrote Kumar, who can be a professor at Delhi’s Centre for the Examine of Creating Societies (CSDS).
Because of this distinction, Karnataka sees a major variety of BJP-Congress and JD(S)-Congress direct contests.
A minimum of 754 of the cumulative 896 seats up for grabs within the final 4 meeting elections — 2004, 2008, 2013 and 2018 — witnessed a direct contest between the three events. The margin of victory was lower than 5,000 votes in 175 or almost a fourth of all 754 seats.
Of those 754 seats, the BJP has a strike charge of 55 per cent when in a direct contest with the JD(S). Additionally it is vital to notice that the 2 events have been locked in a direct contest solely in 10 per cent of the 754 seats.
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BJP vs Congress bipolar contests
The 2018 Karnataka meeting election witnessed a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP in 142 seats. Whereas Congress candidates have been the runners-up in 85 of the 104 seats the BJP gained that 12 months, BJP candidates have been the runners-up in 57 of the 78 seats through which the Congress emerged victorious.
Of those 142 seats, the margin of victory was lower than 5,000 votes in 20 seats, together with 15 that have been bagged by the Congress.
Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist and professional vice-chancellor of Bengaluru’s Jain College, advised ThePrint that this development of direct contests in Karnataka between the Congress and the BJP started in 2004 when the JD(S) was pushed to the third place within the meeting polls held that 12 months.
“From 1999 onwards, the JD(S) has conceded the principal race to the Congress and the BJP,” Shastri added.
In 2004, there was a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP in 105 seats. This quantity was 144 in 2008 and 109 (BJP + KJP) in 2013.
In 2013, the BJP suffered a large blow owing to B.S. Yediyurappa’s determination to half methods with it and float his personal occasion, the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP). Whereas the KJP was capable of win solely six of the 204 seats it contested that 12 months, its candidates emerged because the runners-up in 35 seats.
The BJP and the Congress have been in a direct struggle in 77 seats that 12 months, whereas the KJP and the Congress have been in a direct struggle in 32 seats, totalling 109.
It’s on this context that direct contests between the 2 nationwide events take centre stage in Karnataka’s politics. An evaluation by ThePrint exhibits that seats the place it’s in a direct contest with the Congress make up a good portion of the BJP’s total tally in Karnataka meeting polls.
In three of the final 4 meeting elections, greater than 80 per cent of the seats contributing to the BJP’s tally have been seats through which it was locked in a direct contest with the Congress. The one exception was 2013 when the variety of such seats dropped to 67 per cent and the Congress stormed to energy with a tally of 122 seats — one in need of the bulk mark.
In the meantime, 75 per cent of the seats within the Congress’s kitty in 2018 have been seats through which it was in a direct contest with the BJP. This quantity was 65 per cent within the 2013, 2008 and 2004 meeting elections.
When the BJP emerged because the single-largest occasion in 2004, 2008 and 2018, the occasion had a strike charge of 60 per cent in direct contests with the Congress. The 2013 meeting polls have been the one exception when the Congress, which emerged as the only largest occasion, had a strike charge of 65 per cent in seats the place it was in a direct contest with the BJP.
“The variety of seats through which JD(S) is quantity two could be very minimal. As a result of the JD(S) is within the body in a really small variety of seats, the principal contest is invariably between the Congress and the BJP. So what you say is true of the BJP, to a big extent, might be for the Congress additionally,” stated Shastri.
BJP vs JD(S) bipolar contests
In 2018, the BJP and the JD(S) have been head-to-head in 26 seats — this quantity was decrease in 2013, 2008 and 2004. Of the 26 seats, the BJP was victorious and the JD(S) the runner-up in 17 (65 per cent) seats, whereas the JD(S) was the winner and the BJP the runner-up in 9 (35 per cent).
The BJP, having a powerful presence in northern and central Karnataka, has been attempting to make inroads into the state’s southern districts — thought of a JD(S) stronghold. Union residence minister Amit Shah kicked off the occasion’s marketing campaign in southern Karnataka’s Mandya on 30 December final 12 months.
Of the 46 seats in Vokkaliga-dominated southern Karnataka, the JD(S) gained 25 and the BJP 11 — up from three in 2013 — within the 2018 elections.
An evaluation of election information by ThePrint additionally exhibits that the BJP has bettered its strike charge towards its former ally, the JD(S), during the last 4 meeting elections — from 31.25 per cent in 2004 to 65 per cent in 2018.
The JD(S), alternatively, gained 25 per cent of all seats when it was in a direct contest with the BJP in 2018. For the JD(S), seats through which it was in a direct contest with the BJP made up 25 per cent of its tally that 12 months, in comparison with the BJP’s 16 per cent.
Specialists consider the H.D. Deve Gowda-led occasion’s principal power lies in what’s known as southern Karnataka’s outdated Mysore area. Over the past 20 years, the vote share of the JD(S) has remained constant at 19-21 per cent.
This, considered together with the BJP’s presence in northern and coastal Karnataka, is among the many causes the ruling occasion and the JD(S) are face-to-face in fewer seats in comparison with direct Congress-BJP contests.
Congress vs JD(S) direct contests
The Congress and the JD(S) had direct contests in 43 seats within the 2018 Karnataka meeting elections. They then entered right into a post-poll alliance to cease the BJP from coming to energy, with H.D. Kumaraswamy because the CM.
In that election, the JD(S) gained 25 seats through which its candidates have been pitted in a direct contest towards the Congress — amounting to a strike charge of 60 per cent.
As is the case in seats through which the BJP and the Congress are locked in a direct contest, the JD(S) finally ends up successful two-thirds (65-72 per cent) of all seats through which it’s in a direct contest with the Congress. For the Congress, this quantity is lower than one-third (27-35 per cent).
Nonetheless, the strike charge of the 2 events when in a direct contest, has not been constant. In 2008 and 2013, the Congress’s strike charge towards JD(S) was 60 per cent — the identical because the strike charge of the JD(S) towards the Congress within the 2004 and 2018 meeting elections.
“What has occurred due to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is that the BJP has made inroads in outdated Mysore, principally into territories of the Janata Dal (S). Congress wasn’t as affected by it because the Janata Dal was,” says Shastri.
“Consequently, this time, I don’t suppose you should have an meeting the place no occasion has a majority. I believe the voter could be very clear that an meeting with no occasion with a majority results in political instability. I might not be shocked if the voter makes a decisive alternative in favour of one of many two key gamers.”
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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