The Toronto Blue Jays’ failure to signal first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a contract extension ought to come as no shock. For the previous six years, the Jays have dedicated one misstep after one other in making an attempt to construct a long-term relationship with their four-time All-Star.
Guerrero is about to grow to be a free agent on the finish of the season after he and the Jays couldn’t attain an settlement earlier than his deadline of Tuesday, the date of the workforce’s first full-squad exercise. Whereas he left open the likelihood he’ll re-sign with Toronto, he would attain the open market coming into his age-27 season, at a time when the New York Mets and New York Yankees are among the many golf equipment that may pursue a primary baseman.
Blue Jays normal supervisor Ross Atkins advised reporters Tuesday that the workforce “labored very arduous” to retain Guerrero. However as membership president Mark Shapiro put it, “relating to getting a deal accomplished, it’s both accomplished or not accomplished.” Neither government was prepared to reveal specifics of the negotiations.
The Jays, beneath earlier GM Alex Anthopoulos, signed Guerrero out of the Dominican Republic at age 16. Their subsequent step, in the event that they fall out of competition, could possibly be to commerce him on the deadline. Extra possible, they may lose him in free company.
Both consequence could be a harsh blow for a fan base that grew to adore Guerrero as a homegrown star, then watched the Jays miss on Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and different high free brokers the previous two offseasons. However the relationship between Guerrero and the Jays’ present entrance workplace not often has been simple.
The Jays deliberate to govern Guerrero’s service time on the outset of his profession, took him to a wage arbitration listening to in 2024 and through the years made him a collection of extension provides he deemed inadequate.
These provides, in keeping with a supply briefed on Guerrero’s historical past with the membership, did not acknowledge shifting dynamics available in the market. By reacting extra promptly to these dynamics, the Jays possible might have locked up Guerrero years in the past for a lot lower than he sought in latest weeks.
GM Ross Atkins, left, has two years left on his contract whereas membership president Mark Shapiro, proper, enters the ultimate yr of his deal. The strain on them now will increase considerably. (Mark Blinch / Getty Photos)
The primary related comparability for which the Jays had an insufficient response was the 14-year, $340 million extension the San Diego Padres awarded Fernando Tatis Jr. in February 2021. The newest, apparently, was the New York Mets’ signing of Juan Soto to a document 15-year, $765 million free-agent deal.
It’s affordable to imagine Guerrero desires 14 years, one lower than Soto, who was a yr youthful coming into free company. The document common annual worth for a primary baseman is Miguel Cabrera’s $31 million. For Guerrero, a $35 million AAV would produce a complete worth of $490 million. A $40 million AAV would enhance it to $560 million. Loopy numbers, maybe, for a participant with the 6-foot-2, 245-pound Guerrero’s physique sort. However even on the excessive finish, greater than $200 million lower than Soto.
The Jays additionally made a proposal to Soto, with a complete assure of lower than $700 million, in keeping with SportsNet. Soto, whose profession OPS+ is 60 p.c above league common, is a extra constant and completed hitter than Guerrero, whose profession OPS+ is 37 p.c above. And whereas Guerrero charges as below-average at maybe the least priceless place on the defensive spectrum, Soto additionally occupies a less-than-premium spot, and isn’t a very expert nook outfielder.
The shortcoming of Mets first baseman Pete Alonso to safe a long-term take care of a profession OPS+ 34 p.c above league common maybe stands as a warning signal for Guerrero. However Guerrero is a greater pure hitter than Alonso and greater than 4 years youthful. He’s additionally coming off his second-best offensive season, whereas Alonso’s previous two years symbolize a decline.
Groups think about age a vital issue when assessing gamers’ values. From Bryce Harper to Manny Machado to Soto, youthful free brokers usually strike essentially the most profitable offers. A 14-year deal for Guerrero would cowl his age 27 to 40 seasons. By means of distinction, Aaron Choose’s nine-year contract with the Yankees covers his age 31 to 39 campaigns.
Sturdiness is one other issue working in Guerrero’s favor. Like his father, Vladimir Guerrero Sr., Guerrero Jr. has confirmed a mainstay. Guerrero Sr., in his 14 seasons, appeared in 150 or extra video games 9 instances and 140 or extra 3 times. Guerrero Jr. by no means has been on the injured record. He appeared in all 60 video games of the shortened 2020 season, and has averaged 159 video games since.
The controversy over youthful Guerrero’s worth possible will proceed all through the 2025 season and into his free company. The Blue Jays, looking back, certainly remorse not extending him earlier. However the variations within the methods they dealt with Guerrero and the Padres dealt with Tatis, beginning with their preliminary promotions to the most important leagues, had been telling.
The Jays delayed Guerrero’s free company by one yr after they stored him within the minors for the primary month of the 2019 season, a transfer that grew to become simpler when he suffered an indirect harm in spring coaching. The Padres took the other method with Tatis. Moderately than manipulate his service time, they included him on their Opening Day roster in ’19, understanding it would end in them shedding him after six as an alternative of seven years.
Any concern over Tatis’ potential departure diminished when the Padres signed him to his 14-year deal in 2021. Guerrero, taking part in for $605,400 that season, simply above the league minimal, proceeded to interrupt out, producing career-highs with 48 dwelling runs and an OPS+ 67 p.c above league common. At that time, he nearly actually would have accepted a deal much like Tatis’. However the Jays possible recoiled on the premise.
Tatis’ contract on the time he signed was the third largest in major-league historical past. He was a shortstop then, and stays way more athletic than Guerrero. However Guerrero in his 4 arbitration years ended up incomes a mixed $70.8 million. If the Jays had matched Tatis, Guerrero successfully would have made $269.2 million over his 10 free-agent years — maybe a whole lot of tens of millions under his ask.
Guerrero regressed in 2022, and moderately than signal an extension, settled on a $14.5 million wage in arbitration for ’23. The next yr, after one other season of regression, the Jays took him to a listening to. The arbitrator dominated in favor of Guerrero’s $19.9 million request over the Jays’ $18.05 million provide. It was the best wage ever awarded in a listening to.
The Jays didn’t dare take Guerrero to a listening to once more this offseason, looking for to keep away from battle whereas making an attempt to signal him to an extension. The events settled at $28.5 million, giving Guerrero the third-highest wage for an arbitration-eligible participant, after Soto at $31 million and Shohei Ohtani at $30 million. However the long-term deal proved elusive.
The failure to finish an settlement with Guerrero leaves the Jays at a crossroads with Shapiro coming into the ultimate yr of his contract and Atkins having solely two years left on his deal. The 2 inherited Guerrero, whom the Anthopoulos entrance workplace signed out of the Dominican Republic for $3.9 million in July 2015. Shapiro took over as workforce president three months later, then introduced in Atkins after Anthopoulos rejected a contract extension.
The Jays, utilizing gamers largely acquired by Anthopoulos, superior to the 2016 American League Championship Sequence of their first season beneath Shapiro and Atkins. They haven’t gained a playoff sport since. Maybe that may change after an offseason during which they acquired second baseman Andrés Giménez in a commerce and signed outfielder Anthony Santander, pitcher Max Scherzer and relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García in free company. However the workforce now faces the losses of two homegrown pillars, Guerrero and shortstop Bo Bichette, who is also coming into his stroll yr.
With Guerrero, no less than, it needn’t have come to this.
(High photograph of Guerrero: Julian Avram / Icon Sportswire through Getty Photos)