Can Cowboys afford to pay Dak Prescott in NFL’s broken QB economy?

The Dallas Cowboys are in a pickle with Dak Prescott. They’re both going to A) Pay him an astronomical sum of cash to be a really, excellent — however most likely not elite — NFL quarterback; or B) Let him stroll, save all that cash however wander deep into the quarterback wilderness.

There’s no simple alternative right here, and a significant cause why is that the NFL quarterback market is damaged. The simplest technique to know: In a smart financial system, one of the best participant on one of the best crew would take advantage of cash. So, this must be easy.

The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are one of the best crew within the NFL. Additionally they make use of the world’s greatest quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. It could appear pretty apparent then that Mahomes must be the highest-paid participant in soccer. And but after Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Inexperienced Bay Packers QB Jordan Love signed their megadeals not too long ago, Mahomes ranks eleventh in common annual wage at $45 million.

This can be a downside.

Not for Mahomes, who doesn’t have a problem along with his compensation, and definitely not for the Chiefs, however for the remainder of the NFL and, particularly, the groups paying their lesser-talented quarterbacks more cash than Mahomes — or are getting ready to (ahem, Cowboys).

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These groups are willfully, although understandably, placing themselves at a definite aggressive drawback. By paying their veteran QBs more cash — and giving them a much bigger slice of the wage cap pie — than one of the best participant on the planet, they’re burdening themselves with the duty of constructing rosters round their QBs which might be ok to bridge the hole between their QB and Mahomes — and doing it with much less cash.

That’s considerably of an oversimplification of the state of affairs however is basically the guess these groups are putting after they overpay their less-talented QBs. It’s not an amazing guess, and but it’s utterly comprehensible. Not paying these quarterbacks and selecting to enter QB purgatory with no assure of escape is terrifying. These entrance workplaces have livelihoods to guard, so selecting to maneuver on from a high quality quarterback in a QB-driven league is an awfully troublesome option to make.

This brings us again to Dallas, the place the QB is uniquely positioned to leverage the Cowboys into paying him an ungodly amount of cash.

Ought to they do it?

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First, we have to set up that Prescott is a decidedly upper-tier QB. You don’t luck your method into what he achieved in 2023 — an All-Professional season and MVP runner-up — however he additionally doesn’t stay in the identical difference-maker stratosphere as Mahomes.

Nonetheless, he possesses an unlimited quantity of leverage in that he’s coming off one of the best season of his profession, simply turned 31 years previous, is enjoying within the ultimate 12 months of his contract and the Cowboys can’t use the franchise tag on him, which implies that in need of signing a brand new deal within the subsequent eight months, he’s going to hit free company. And Prescott is aware of that if he reaches the open market, QB-needy groups will fall over themselves to pay him $60 million-plus per 12 months. So, that’s more likely to be the value for Dallas.

However can the Cowboys afford to permit a QB of Prescott’s caliber to take up that a lot cap house and nonetheless compete?

It could be powerful.

I seemed again on the cap hits of the quarterbacks on groups that reached the final 10 convention title video games. Of these 40 groups, solely 5 rostered quarterbacks with salaries taking on greater than 15% of the cap.

Solely Mahomes’ Chiefs received Tremendous Bowls.

If we stopped our evaluation right here, we might conclude Mahomes is the exception to the rule and that you simply can not win a championship whereas paying your QB — until he’s Mahomes — greater than 15% of the cap. That would appear to point the Cowboys most likely shouldn’t pay Prescott and that groups just like the Dolphins and Packers have erred in paying their QBs.

However let’s go one other step additional. Of these 40 groups, solely 19 performed in a convention championship sport with a quarterback making greater than 10% of the cap (the rookie QB contract is a robust factor). 5 of these 19 had been both Tom Brady or Mahomes. As for groups which have received a Tremendous Bowl with a quarterback taking on greater than 10% of the cap, the listing is:

That’s 4 years in a row, so it might be honest to conclude groups can get away with 10%. Nevertheless, with three of these titles being received by groups led by two of one of the best to ever do it in Mahomes and Brady, it’s arduous to know for certain.

Even with the cap quickly rising — Over The Cap and Spotrac each venture the wage cap, at present at $255.4 million, to exceed $300 million by 2027 — Prescott’s $60 million-plus wage is primed to gobble up an enormous chunk of that.

After all, the Cowboys can (and possibly would) attempt to mimic groups just like the Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints, tack void years onto the tip of Prescott’s contract and push loads of the cash owed to him properly into the long run.

For these unfamiliar with this technique, the Eagles signed QB Jalen Hurts to a five-year, $255 million extension final 12 months. Nevertheless, there are seven void years on the deal that maintain his cap hit underneath 15% p.c by 2027. Now, his 2029 projected cap hit exceeds $97 million, however he’ll probably by no means play on that determine, because the Eagles will probably reconfigure his contract and maintain pushing cash into the long run so it’s simpler to construct a proficient roster round him. Within the Cowboys’ case, this is able to enable them to re-sign the likes of celebrity receiver CeeDee Lamb and celebrity cross rush Micah Parsons, amongst others, whereas additionally paying Prescott.

There are downsides to void years — it may possibly create loads of useless cash sooner or later and/or pressure groups into handing out extensions to older/common gamers simply to make ends meet.

Enjoying the sport like this carries loads of danger. Is Prescott the kind of QB value taking that form of danger on? To this point in his profession, regardless of all his regular-season success, the shortage of postseason success makes it tough.

Prescott had a problem acting at a top-10 stage in opposition to 2023 playoff groups. And that matches the invoice for Prescott’s profession. Total, he’s a great QB who will win loads of regular-season video games however hasn’t carried out at that very same stage in opposition to the league’s greatest, which is what you are inclined to see within the playoffs.

Bear in mind, Dallas hasn’t been to an NFC Championship Recreation since 1995, that means that on each Prescott’s rookie contract and the four-year, $160 million deal he’s at present enjoying on, he hasn’t taken the Cowboys the place they need to go.

So why ought to the Cowboys count on that to alter with Prescott consuming up a fair larger share of the cap? Constructing a Tremendous Bowl-caliber roster round him can be an immense problem, even for a crew that drafts in addition to Dallas does.

Whereas the crew’s failures aren’t all on him, Dak Prescott hasn’t been capable of information the Cowboys past the NFC divisional spherical throughout his eight seasons as their beginning QB. (Ryan Kang / Getty Photos)

Conclusion

There’s no simple reply right here. The soundest technique might be for the Cowboys to cap their supply at $60 million per 12 months, and if Prescott desires to attend free of charge company and one other crew goes above that, let him go. Certain, it’s simple to say from afar that the Cowboys ought to let their MVP-caliber QB stroll out the door, however the Cowboys could be uniquely positioned to do what few different groups can.

There’s no GM underneath strain in Dallas. It’s Jerry and Stephen Jones, they usually aren’t going anyplace. In the event that they need to let Prescott depart, nobody goes to fireplace them for making a mistake (if that’s what it seems to be).

Let’s say they do this. What can be their path ahead then?

Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett and Justin Fields are more likely to be the highest free brokers out there subsequent offseason. Brissett stands out in my NFL Projection Mannequin as essentially the most environment friendly of the three, and although the drop-off from Prescott to Brissett is critical (my mannequin suggests Dallas can be 2.5-3.0 wins worse this 12 months with that change at QB), my mannequin can’t predict how significantly better the roster might get with Dallas redistributing the cash it might have paid Prescott.

Give it some thought: The Cowboys might simply re-sign Lamb and Parsons with out worrying in regards to the prices. They might then use the financial savings to go after one other extensive receiver (Tee Higgins or Chris Godwin?) to make life simpler in your bridge (and later rookie) quarterback. That will not mitigate the lack of Prescott, however it might be a great begin.

By definition, a bridge starter isn’t a long-term answer, so Dallas would probably draft a rookie to pair with its bridge QB. That could possibly be a troublesome task on condition that Dallas isn’t more likely to be choosing within the prime 20. There’s at all times the potential of a commerce up within the 2025 NFL Draft. Or possibly Dallas waits a 12 months and continues constructing out its roster to make it a greater touchdown spot for a rookie in 2026.

Whereas neither choice is thrilling, the query comes all the way down to what brings you nearer to returning to the Tremendous Bowl: Prescott with a less-talented roster and/or doable cap points down the street? Or is it greatest to reset with a bridge quarterback/rookie?

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On the finish of the day, if Prescott is my quarterback at $60 million, I consider I can manipulate the rising wage cap sufficient to construct a aggressive roster. However that’s the place I’m drawing the road. There comes a degree the place the value is simply too steep and the long run cap issues make it almost unimaginable to construct a championship-caliber roster round him. So if he walks, I’m nice strolling into a brand new period of the Dallas Cowboys.

(High Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; High photograph: Cooper Neill / Getty Photos)