New Delhi: After dropping energy in Himachal Pradesh, the defeat in Karnataka is a serious setback for the Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP) in an election-packed yr that can even see different massive states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana go to polls.
The bigger affect is the dent within the BJP’s southern ambition because the occasion appears to be like to develop its footprints in states akin to Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Karnataka was the one southern state the place it was in energy.
Shedding out certainly one of India’s most affluent states will probably be bitter for the BJP forward of the 2024 Lok Sabha election as of the whole 28 parliamentary seats, it has MPs in 25 seats together with an Impartial backed by the occasion.
Defeat was palpable regardless of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hectic campaigning in Karnataka to counter anti-incumbency sentiment towards the Basavaraj Bommai authorities and his all-out efforts to show a localised state election right into a personality-based nationwide election.
Although the BJP vote share remained roughly the identical, the explanation for its loss in Karnataka can’t be pinned down on a single issue alone.
“Karnataka outcomes are disappointing for the BJP, but it surely displays that regionalism prevails over nationalism. Regional politics of caste, regional aspiration prevail, but it surely is not going to affect different states as our monitor document is unmatched. The PM’s recognition is repeatedly rising,” former Union minister and BJP spokesperson Rajiv Pratap Rudy advised ThePrint.
Corruption & anti-incumbency
Not like different BJP-ruled states like Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and even Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka was an exception as corruption turned a serious sticking level for the occasion.
The Congress’ 40 per cent fee authorities marketing campaign dented the picture of the BJP authorities, however Bommai by some means didn’t take steps to nip the issues within the bud.
When contractor Santosh Patil, who accused rural growth minister minister Ok.S Eshwarappa of corruption, was discovered useless in April final yr, the BJP chief was requested to resign however the occasion didn’t use the optics to deal with the allegation of corruption and to battle the detrimental narrative towards it.
An audio clip of regulation minister J. C. Madhuswamy — who allegedly mentioned that the federal government was not functioning and that the BJP is simply managing issues till the 2023 election — additional disclosed the incompetence of the Bommai authorities.
From preventing corruption or taking alongside his Cupboard colleagues, Bommai didn’t exert himself as an assertive chief minister. Even when the Congress campaigned on corruption, he termed it merely as “soiled politics”.
The assault of the Karnataka Contractors’ Affiliation towards horticulture minister Muniratna solely gave extra ammunition to the Congress, which went on to launch the PayCM marketing campaign in a direct assault on Bommai. Although the BJP launched ‘Rip-off Ramaiah’ in September final yr, it was too late to include the damages.
Uninspiring state management
Previous to the election in 2018, the BJP introduced Lingayat strongman B. S. Yediyurappa was its chief ministerial candidate nearly a yr forward prematurely whereas the central management supplemented the marketing campaign of the Karnataka unit.
In distinction this yr, the central management took over all elements of campaigning with Bommai himself saying that the BJP would contest the election below the occasion’s collective management. Neither was he introduced because the face of the occasion.
The BJP brass first diminished Yediyurappa’s clout by calling him many times for the Cupboard growth, which then occurred with Bommai too. Yediyurappa was faraway from the CM’s chair in 2021, regardless of the management realizing effectively that he’s the one in style mass chief in Karnataka.
The occasion then realised its mistake and appointed Yediyurappa to the parliamentary board in August final yr. It then went on a correction course with PM Narendra Modi holding his hand whereas inaugurating Shimoga airport for the shutterbugs in February 2024. Modi additional cleared all contestants advised by Yediyurappa and didn’t take heed to options of senior chief B.L.Santhosh.
Yediyurappa and his son B.Y. Vijayendra campaigned extensively, however Modi discovered a bigger house than the previous chief minister in the complete marketing campaign. Many citizens contended that the BJP made an enormous mistake by eradicating Yediyurappa from the CMO.
Siddaramaiah of the Congress, in distinction, enjoys big recognition like Yediyurappa. The occasion, too, centered extra on inflation, cylinder worth and native points.
Not like in Uttarakhand, the place two CMs have been modified, and in Gujarat, the place not solely chief minister Vijay Rupani and deputy Nitin Patel however the entire construction of the state unit was additionally modified, the BJP didn’t undertake a drastic ‘surgical procedure’ in Karnataka. Solely two dozen sitting MLAs have been denied tickets and the state president was not modified. Many of the dynasts got tickets besides a couple of like Ok. S. Eshwarappa.
After the outcomes went towards the occasion, a BJP functionary in Delhi conceded that Bommai was no match to Yediyurappa as a frontrunner.
“When Yediyurappa was eliminated for bringing a generational change, Bommai was introduced on the suggestion of Yediyurappa attributable to gentle angle and good chemistry with him. However he was not match of Yediyurappa. However like different states, extra adjustments weren’t finished…we didn’t take away the state president, many sitting MLAs. …humiliation of Yediyurappa didn’t go effectively in Lingayat pockets. Voters thought why to vote for the BJP if he isn’t in a commanding place,” the BJP functionary advised ThePrint.
Native election versus central election
The BJP’s plan to profit from the prime minister’s recognition didn’t work in Karnataka because it was not backed by an inspiring management or a powerful marketing campaign narrative.
Because the Congress waged the electoral battle on native points akin to expensive LPG cylinders, worth rise, corruption amongst others, the BJP tried to show the election round Modi, his management and recognition and double-engine authorities. Even in the course of the election marketing campaign, many of the public works cited have been of the central authorities and never that of Bommai and Yediyurappa.
The Modi magic didn’t work as the federal government’s picture was tarnished by a sustained marketing campaign of the Congress. Worse, infighting acquired extra extreme after ticket distribution.
In such a state of affairs, the BJP understood that the one means out was to divert public consideration from the urgent native points. It tried to money in on the Congress manifesto to boost the bogey of Lord Hanuman, however the voters of Karnataka noticed by way of the technique and punished the BJP for not addressing native problems with governance.
“It was our greatest technique, to show the election on the nationwide narrative to beat anti-incumbency realizing the extent of anti-incumbency within the state. From the beginning, we have been getting a really dismal image of the state, but it surely was the prime minister who bridged the hole. (However) the hole was wider this time and the narrative was towards us,” a senior Karnataka minister advised ThePrint.
The antagonistic outcomes additionally confirmed the limitation of the Modi think about states like Jharkhand, and Delhi which have robust leaders like Hemant Soren and Arvind Kejriwal.
The Congress marketing campaign was focussed on native points, a Karnataka minister mentioned.
“…we ignored native points and we have been assured that when the PM campaigns, he’ll change the whole lot. However the individuals have been extra involved about growth, worth assure and livelihood. The Congress’ ensures discovered extra resonance. Since we have been dealing with backlash on governance problem, the individuals didn’t belief our guarantees,” the minister advised ThePrint, including that the narrative was modified from Hizab to Tipu Sultan for diverting consideration from anti-incumbency.
“…we discovered that we’re nonetheless not getting traction after which switched to the event plank, however we stored reciting the document of the central authorities. We didn’t point out work of Yediyurappa and Bommai. We thought the Bajrang Dal ban would polarise voters. Our marketing campaign technique had main flaws. We didn’t counter the Congress on corruption successfully and didn’t current our options to native points.”
Political analyst S.Y. Surendra advised ThePrint that the BJP marketing campaign was not in sync with floor realities. “They (BJP leaders) have been pondering voters will vote on Modi’s title. The occasion didn’t reply to native misery at floor. They humiliated the extensively accepted management of Yediyurappa. All of it went towards the BJP,” he added.
Reservation rejig didn’t work
Because the Hijab and Tipu Sultan controversies weren’t getting the traction that it was anticipating, the Bommai authorities unleashed its most potent weapon by rejigging the reservation matrix to reap electoral dividends.
In 2005, the then Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) authorities had appointed a fee to inquire into the equitable distribution of reservation advantages amongst Scheduled Castes. Its report was by no means tabled within the meeting.
The Basavaraj Bommai authorities arrange a five-member cupboard subcommittee on inner reservations in December final yr. Then, on 23 March, the federal government introduced a brand new reservation coverage that gave extra quota to Lingayats and Vokkaligas.
However the final minute determination didn’t work like the way in which the occasion was anticipating. The Dalit mobilisation occurred in favour of the Congress in a number of pockets of Karnataka. The Kurubas consolidated in favour of Siddaramaiah whereas the Dalits — who have been dealing with livelihood points backed — the Congress of their strongholds.
The consolidation of Dalit, tribal and Vokkaliga votes for the Congress in north Karnataka cornered the BJP in its stronghold of Lingayat belt. Even the BJP’s efforts to get votes in Outdated Mysore didn’t get traction, because the JD(S) votes shifted to the Congress.
Senior chief Amit Shah had advised the state management to concentrate on Outdated Mysore, but it surely was too late, in accordance with occasion insiders. The BJP’s Vokkaliga push additionally didn’t work in absence of any face from the neighborhood within the area of Outdated Mysore.
Girls assist for BJP dwindled
Not like in states akin to Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Assam, beneficiaries of assorted central schemes didn’t again the Bommai authorities absolutely. The supply element was not as easy as within the different BJP-ruled states.
The individuals, who confronted difficulties and have become impatient, didn’t purchase the BJP promise of a double-engine authorities. They have been extra drawn to the money element provided by 5 ensures of Congress in Yuva Nidhi, Anna Bhagya, Gruha Jyothi, Uchita Prayana and Gruha Lakshmi.
Whereas Uchita Prayana proposes free journey for girls in common government-run buses, Gruha Jyothi guarantees 200 unit free electrical energy a month to all households. Below Gruha Lakshmi, every girl head of the household will obtain Rs 2,000 month-to-month help.
A month-to-month help of Rs 3,000 will probably be given to all unemployed graduates and Rs 1,500 for all unemployed diploma graduates (each within the age group of 18 to 25) for 2 years below Yuva Nidhi. Below Anna Bhagya, each particular person in a BPL household will obtain 10 kg meals grains each month.
Even because the BJP carried out promoting blitzkrieg highlighting its monitor document achieved by way of Swachh Bharat, Ayush Bharat and Kisan Samman Nidhi, the ladies suffered most because of the rise within the costs of LPG cylinders, meals grains and necessities and electrical energy charges.
(Edited by Tony Rai)