Could a small-market team be a surprise fit for Roki Sasaki? Parsing his agent’s words

Ultimately month’s Winter Conferences in Dallas, agent Joel Wolfe held courtroom in entrance of a big group of reporters and brought about a stir when discussing his shopper, Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, who is anticipated to signal with a major-league staff after the worldwide signing interval begins on Jan. 15.

Hypothesis about the place Sasaki would finally land in MLB has simmered since his Nippon Skilled Baseball debut in 2021, stoked by his stellar efficiency within the 2023 World Baseball Traditional. The Dodgers are presently seen as a favourite, nevertheless it’s clear they’re not the one staff within the hunt.

On the Winter Conferences, Wolfe mentioned that Sasaki was searching for a staff that has had success on the sector and a historical past of creating pitchers. He additionally talked about entry to direct flights from his new metropolis to Japan as a consideration. However maybe most curiously, he mentioned that due to Sasaki’s private experiences rising up within the highlight in Japan, a small market staff exterior of the media glare might need a better probability than some may suppose.

“I believe that there’s an argument to be made {that a} smaller, mid-market staff could be extra useful for him as a smooth touchdown coming from Japan, given what he’s been via and never having an gratifying expertise with the media,” Wolfe mentioned. “It could be — I’m not saying it is going to be — I don’t know the way he’s going to view it, nevertheless it could be useful for him to be in a smaller market.”

Groups took observe, with some altering their displays to account for the perceived preferences.

Sasaki, 23, was formally posted final month by Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines. He can decide his staff, however as a result of he’s not a free agent, he can be sure by worldwide signing bonus limits.

Simply earlier than the brand new yr, Wolfe held a teleconference and mentioned 20 groups submitted pitches for Sasaki.

However the place will he go? And will it actually be a staff exterior of the large coastal juggernauts? Wouldn’t it be doable to interrupt down which groups could be good suits for Sasaki, utilizing solely the factors Wolfe laid out? (Whereas after all understanding that there are a lot of, many elements at play past these.)

For this train, we checked out all 30 groups and graded them on 4 elements (historical past of success, small media market, pitching growth and entry to Japan), rating every staff from one via 30 based mostly on a particular metric. One of the best earned 30 factors and the worst earned one level in every class.

We don’t know who will finally win the Sasaki Sweepstakes, however maybe some groups have a greater probability than we beforehand thought.

Historical past of success

What Wolfe mentioned: “One of the best I can say is, he has paid consideration to how groups have achieved, so far as total success, each this yr and years previous. He does watch quite a lot of Main League Baseball.”

Methodology: That is fairly easy. Does the staff win? For this, we’ll take a look at the successful share of MLB groups during the last 4 full seasons.

Limitations: Utilizing simply the regular-season win totals from the final 4 seasons doesn’t embody postseason success. This formulation additionally weighs every season equally, and the 2021 Orioles (52 wins) and the 2021 White Sox (93 wins) are in a lot completely different conditions than their 2025 counterparts.

Conclusion: The Dodgers are good. We knew that. Solely as soon as within the final 4 years has the staff didn’t win 100 video games — and in that season, they gained the World Collection. With no repeat World Collection winners over that interval, it’s clear that if successful is all that issues, becoming a member of the Dodgers is the way in which to go.

However don’t rely out the Braves. Atlanta has the second-most regular-season victories during the last 4 seasons and a current World Collection title of their very own. The Astros, who gained the World Collection in 2022, have the third-most victories over that point. The Rangers gained a World Collection in 2023, however solely eight groups have fewer regular-season victories during the last 4 years.

If there’s a sleeper on this group, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee’s gained the fifth-most regular-season video games (366) and solely the New York Yankees have gained extra regular-season video games (367) with out a World Collection title in that timeframe.

Small media markets

What Wolfe mentioned: “I believe that there’s an argument to be made {that a} smaller, mid-market staff could be extra useful for him as a smooth touchdown coming from Japan.”

Methodology: Not all media markets are created equal. Boston is the seventh-largest TV market within the nation, however taking part in in Boston is historically thought of a very intense media expertise. Boston, New York and Philadelphia have reputations as among the many hardest media markets, whereas giant markets like Los Angeles, Dallas and Atlanta don’t have the identical repute. For this train, we’ve used the 2024 Baseball Writers Affiliation of America rolls and ranked every chapter by the variety of members listed in that chapter as a mirrored image of the media consideration.

Limitations: Utilizing the BBWAA chapters simply tells complete numbers, it doesn’t embody simply what number of writers are on the ballpark each day. Additionally, there are 5 chapters — New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Baltimore-Washington and San Francisco-Oakland — with two groups. Each groups share the identical rating, even when the media surrounding the Dodgers or Cubs is larger than the Angels or White Sox. The New York chapter is by far the biggest as a result of many nationwide writers additionally dwell in New York. Of the one-team chapters, solely Boston had extra members in 2024 than Miami, though a lot of Miami’s members cowl gamers from Spanish-speaking international locations as a lot or greater than the Marlins. Additionally, this metric doesn’t embody TV or radio protection. It additionally doesn’t issue within the Japanese media, which travels to cowl the nation’s finest gamers, no matter the place they’re taking part in. In 2020, at the very least two Japanese media members have been in Cincinnati for a lot of the season only for Shogo Akiyama, who spent that season largely as a platoon participant.

Conclusion: The Brewers, Rays, Reds and Rockies might actually bear down on Wolfe’s feedback about small markets and media consideration of their pitch.

Growing pitching

What Wolfe mentioned: “He’s talked to quite a lot of gamers, international gamers, which were on his staff with Chiba Lotte. He requested questions on climate, comfortability, pitching growth.”

Methodology: For this train, we’ll use Cy Younger  Award voting from the previous 4 years. This, after all, advantages groups with established pitchers and groups just like the Yankees who signal big-name free brokers, however utilizing the cumulative voting totals hopefully provides credit score to groups whose pitchers persistently garner votes. For pitchers who have been traded throughout the season wherein they earned factors, we’ve used the staff that pitchers began the season with as a result of the majority of the innings and the preparation have been from the primary staff.

Limitations: That is much less quantifiable than easy W-L data. Some groups are identified for creating their pitchers on the minor-league stage and a few, just like the Astros and Rays, are identified for taking proficient pitchers and enhancing them.

Utilizing simply the Cy Younger voting limits the pool to largely starters, which is OK since Sasaki goes to be signed and used as a starter. However this technique solely measures the perfect performances, and the way a lot of that’s on the pitcher and the way a lot of that’s on the staff? It additionally reductions earlier developments, reminiscent of giving the Yankees credit score on Gerrit Cole, who turned an ace whereas with the Astros and was drafted by the Pirates. It additionally provides extra weight to the voting outcomes, with unanimous choices incomes a a lot larger level complete than shut selections.

Conclusion: The Blue Jays, surprisingly, prime the listing. A lot of that comes from Robbie Ray’s 2021 Cy Younger marketing campaign, however the staff additionally had third-place finishers in 2022 (Alek Manoah) and 2023 (Kevin Gausman). Manoah is the one a type of three to come back up via the Blue Jays’ system (and we’ll ignore what’s occurred since then), whereas Ray gained the award in his first full season. Gausman’s third-place end got here in his first yr with the staff after signing as a free agent.

The Phillies completed second, adopted by the Braves. The Brewers completed ninth by this metric, however that would appear low contemplating the pitching the Brewers have gotten during the last 4 years. The Astros, a staff credited with turning round a number of pitching careers, completed sixth.

Direct flights to and from Japan

What Wolfe mentioned: “After we provide info to our Japanese gamers, lengthy earlier than they arrive over right here, one of many issues that we offer for them is direct flights from Japan and the period of time it takes for household to come back and go to you. I take into consideration 5 or 10 years in the past that was one thing that possibly they weighed a bit of bit extra, however now you possibly can fly direct from Japan to many of the main cities within the U.S.”

Methodology: There are direct flights to Japan from 15 completely different airports within the continental United States. Toronto additionally has direct flights to Japan. For this train, we’ll use the space from the staff’s dwelling ballpark to the closest airport with a direct flight to Japan.

Limitations: There are a ton, however we’ll begin with the truth that when touring, probably the most related unit of measurement is time, not distance. Nonetheless, variables together with frequency of flights, schedules, site visitors and total distance come into play — a flight with a cease from the West Coast will probably take much less time than a nonstop flight from the East Coast to Japan. And, sure, O’Hare airport might solely be 14 miles from Wrigley Discipline, however there are occasions of day that it may be a protracted drive.

Conclusion: San Diego is the clear winner right here. San Diego Worldwide Airport doesn’t have the amount of flights accessible at LAX, nevertheless it does have the bonus of not being LAX or having LAX site visitors, which may add hours to journey time. The Twins are a sneaky great spot with direct flights.

Of observe: Although it isn’t mirrored in our calculation, Seattle gives the shortest flight time (10 hours, 10 minutes) to Tokyo.

Remaining conclusion

Why are the great groups good? Nicely, these good groups win video games, develop gamers and have cash. These three are literally tied to the classes given — with market measurement partly figuring out each direct flights to Japan and media consideration, each of which affect income. That’s why it’s no shock that the highest three groups in our train are the Padres, Braves and Astros.

It’s only once we get to fourth place that now we have a type of small-market groups within the Brewers. The Brewers tick all these containers, with an out-of-the-box decide in O’Hare Worldwide. (It might be in a distinct state, however O’Hare is simply over an hour and a $114 Uber experience from Milwaukee.)

Will the Brewers be the decide? It appears unlikely, however Matt Arnold’s staff could make some fascinating factors in its gross sales pitch.

The Padres had already been a staff seen as having a shot at Sasaki’s providers, and never simply due to the staff’s current historical past of handing out main contracts and making large splashes. The Padres tick all of the containers that Wolfe laid out, each normally phrases and in our train. Whereas the highest 10 is affected by big-market bullies, the Mariners, who’ve as a lot historical past with Japanese gamers as any staff, completed tenth, adopted by the Twins. Each groups are forward of the Dodgers on this listing, however by some means, it appears Los Angeles nonetheless has a fairly good probability of touchdown one other Japanese celebrity.

(Picture of Roki Sasaki: Eric Espada / Getty Photographs)