Candy, candy convention play. We’ve been ready for you.
Particularly from a sure league, whose cannibalism could be the solely factor preserving it from setting the NCAA Match’s all-time bids file. About that:
1. The SEC’s superiority additionally ensures one thing else: carnage!
What extra can we are saying concerning the SEC, which has 14 groups in KenPom’s prime 50, and none outdoors of the highest 100? (Each different energy convention has no less than two cellar dwellers, by the best way, led by the ACC’s seven.) Right here’s the factor, although: Whereas the SEC earned that lofty repute by kicking butt and taking names in nonconference, now the decision is coming from inside the home. When two good groups play each other — spoiler alert — one in all them has to lose.
That is the way you wind up with the wreckage we’ve seen every week and alter into league play.
There’s no higher instance of that than Arkansas: a fine-but-nothing-special group that is perhaps in for a impolite awakening the following two months. The Razorbacks have a Corridor of Fame coach in John Calipari, perhaps the breakout participant of this season in Adou Thiero, a possible first-round choose in freshman level guard Boogie Fland … and so they’re 0-2 within the SEC after Wednesday’s 7-point residence loss to Ole Miss. It’s the primary time in Calipari’s profession that he has ever began 0-2 in SEC play — and that features Kentucky’s disastrous 2020-21 season when the Cats went 9-16 and missed the NCAA Match. Regardless of capturing 75.5 p.c on the rim, per CBB Analytics — 13 p.c higher than the DI common — Arkansas is taking beneath 30 p.c of its photographs from in shut, which is beneath the DI common. Plus, outdoors of a neutral-court win over Michigan, the Hogs’ resume is mighty skinny. Issues don’t get simpler with Florida coming to city Saturday. Beginning 0-3 on this SEC isn’t essentially deadly, however it isn’t good.
Or how about Tennessee, the final undefeated group in America that bought smacked at Florida on Tuesday? The Vols’ 30-point loss was essentially the most by an AP No. 1 group since 1968. The Gators challenged Tennessee’s physicality early, and the Vols had been surprisingly content material to not drive the problem inside; their first six photographs had been all 3s or midrange jumpers — 4 of them by Chaz Lanier, who had his first tough recreation all season — and so they didn’t rating a discipline purpose till Felix Okpara’s alley-oop greater than seven minutes in. It was already 12-2 by that time, and the tone had been set for all the recreation. Tennessee’s protection remains to be elite, but when Lanier isn’t hitting offensively, I ponder if the trio of Zakai Zeigler, Jordan Gainey and Igor Milicic is potent sufficient offensively to maintain the Vols afloat. UT’s shot chart, per CBB Analytics, is … curious, to say the least:
That Florida win remains to be most likely the perfect within the SEC this week, however Texas A&M profitable at Oklahoma on Wednesday night time — after trailing by as many as 18 within the second half and with out star guard Wade Taylor IV (who missed solely his second faculty recreation in 4 seasons) — is correct there with it. Regardless of journeyman Brycen Goodine’s career-high 9 3s, the Sooners went nearly seven second-half minutes with out a basket, permitting the Aggies to creep again in. Zhuric Phelps was the star of the night time, ending with a career-high 34 factors — essentially the most by any Texas A&M participant ever in a ranked victory — and what proved to be the game-winning 3.
ZHURIC PHELPS!
Texas A&M comes again from an 18-point deficit to stun Oklahoma and enhance to 13-2. pic.twitter.com/Si8s2q4b2Y
— Warmth Verify CBB (@HeatCheckCBB) January 9, 2025
The record goes on. Georgia beat Kentucky for its first top-10 win since Jan. 2020 and is on observe to make the NCAA Match for the primary time in a decade. Auburn narrowly beat Texas to make Bruce Pearl this system’s all-time wins chief and will regain its No. 1 rating subsequent week barring a collapse at South Carolina. Mississippi State is the perfect group no person is speaking about, amid an eight-game profitable streak with victories over Memphis and Pitt.
At this price, the SEC will produce a handful of difficult postseason resumes: squads adequate — by way of the nonconference and pc metrics — to be in, however who would possibly solely have six or seven league wins. How the choice committee sifts by that will probably be fascinating.
2. Don’t let the Auburn and Duke lovefest make you neglect this season’s third elite group this season
Which is *drumroll please*… Iowa State.
Auburn and Duke — the 2 finest groups within the nation, for my cash — are each verging on historic seasons when it comes to effectivity.
There’s by no means been a season the place two faculty basketball groups end the yr having a KenPom AdjEM over +35.00.
Auburn and Duke are each at present monitoring to be two of the highest 5 highest rated groups of all time. pic.twitter.com/fTUPaZ13ZP
— AI Bracketology 🏀 (@AI_Bracketology) January 8, 2025
Shameless plug alert. I wrote about each earlier this week: particularly, about Auburn’s 30-year-old “offensive coordinator” who helped construct the perfect offense in KenPom’s 29-year database; and the way Duke’s top-ranked protection remains to be including new wrinkles. I’d be shocked if each didn’t wind up as No. 1 seeds, and I’d gladly take a rematch in San Antonio in April.
However for nearly as good because the Tigers and Blue Devils are, Iowa State is correct there with each of them. T.J. Otzelberger’s Cyclones are one in all simply two groups (the opposite being Duke) with a top-10 adjusted offensive and defensive effectivity rating, per KenPom. ISU is 13-1, with double-digit wins over Marquette and Baylor. Its lone loss got here to — who else — however Auburn, in perhaps the perfect opening-round Maui Invitational recreation ever. The Cyclones wound up shedding by two off Johni Broome’s offensive putback, however they led by 16 at halftime and had the ball in a tie recreation with beneath 30 seconds left. If that closing possession goes in another way, we’re speaking about ISU because the unanimous prime group in America.
Otzelberger’s Iowa State groups have at all times been good defensively — his first three have completed top-10 in adjusted defensive effectivity, together with final season’s No. 1 score — however this season’s Cyclones are simply Otzelberger’s finest offensively. Iowa State isn’t an excellent 3-point capturing group, however it hardly ever turns it over, usually will get to the free-throw line and is top-20 nationally in 2-point proportion. Per Synergy, ISU is within the ninetieth percentile or higher nationally in spot-up capturing, post-ups, transition and offensive putbacks.
Oddly, the one offensive motion the Cyclones aren’t elite in? Decide-and-roll ballhandlers. Per Synergy, regardless of having top-of-the-line backcourts within the nation — Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, Curtis Jones and Milan Momcilovic mix for 54 factors per recreation, or about 62.6 p.c of the group’s complete scoring — Iowa State solely averages 0.774 factors per possession (PPP) utilizing pick-and-roll ballhandlers, which charges as “common” and within the forty first percentile nationally.
However after watching all 159 of these possessions this season, the truth isn’t practically so stark. Take Gilbert, for instance. He’s 3-for-12 from 3 in such actions, however of these 9 misses, solely three are what I’d deem makeable photographs; the opposite six both got here off contested stepbacks or with the sport/shot clock expiring when he was compelled to get it up. (Additionally, 4 of the 9 got here in ISU’s 23-point win over Utah on Tuesday; 3-for-8 sounds a lot completely different from 3-for-12.) I do know what the uncooked information says … however I additionally noticed Gilbert do that in Maui:
Gilbert can drive it in these situations, too, like when he took benefit of a drag display early on versus Auburn:
All of that could be a good distance of claiming Iowa State greater than deserves to be talked about alongside Duke and Auburn within the prime tier nationally. These three groups are a transparent stage above everybody else, and Last 4 front-runners.
3. Again from the lifeless, and coming to a bubble close to you
Convention play taketh … however it additionally giveth, particularly for some groups we had written off earlier this season. A couple of who’ve performed their approach again to relevancy, if no more:
Louisville: Winners of 5 straight, the Playing cards have already received as many convention video games since New Yr’s Day (three) as they did all of final season. That’s spectacular for just a few causes. Seven of Pat Kelsey’s 13 groups as a head coach, Louisville included this season, have been top-75 nationally in 3-point price — however none have shot the ball as poorly as these Playing cards, who make 29.8 p.c of their 3s regardless of main all high-major groups in 3-point price. However during the last 5 video games, Louisville has began to come back round from deep; UL is making 34.3 p.c of its triples amid this five-game profitable streak, with Charleston switch Reyne Smith — one in all three gamers Kelsey introduced with him this offseason — accounting for 40.4 p.c of the makes over that stretch. That’s sufficient of a bump to make a distinction and to validate the Playing cards’ play model.
Mix that with Louisville’s improved protection, and also you’ve bought one thing. UL has been far more aggressive defensively within the final 5 video games, and it confirmed once more Tuesday towards Clemson, one of many ACC’s finest groups. Watch how the 6-foot-6, 215-pound J’Vonne Hadley seals 6-foot-8, 240-pound Ian Schieffelin within the paint, forcing a turnover:
Louisville’s assist protection has additionally been a lot improved. That’s each on post-ups, like beneath, the place Terrence Edwards’ stunt stops Viktor Lakhin from backing down any additional and forces a shot earlier than he supposed:
And in ball screens. Right here, Chucky Hepburn — who’s having an All-ACC season — pressures Schieffelin to choose up his dribble earlier than he supposed, forcing Schieffelin into an early and contested layup in site visitors:
For Louisville to be doing this with out Kasean Pryor and Koren Johnson, who’re each out for the season, is a testomony to Kelsey’s teaching. Contemplating all 5 of Louisville’s losses are to ranked groups, there’s completely a path for UL to make its first NCAA Match since 2018-19.
Villanova: If Alex Karaban doesn’t miss consecutive free throws for the primary time in his faculty profession, perhaps we’re not speaking about Villanova like this. My colleague CJ Moore did a full dive on the Wildcats and their turnaround after this week’s win over UConn — positively verify that out — however most significantly, the Wildcats have compelled their approach again onto the bubble after a lackluster nonconference efficiency. Kyle Neptune may not be executed but.
Arizona: Is that this a typical Tommy Lloyd group when it comes to offensive polish and connectivity? Completely not. However throughout its five-game profitable streak — together with consecutive street wins over ranked Cincinnati and West Virginia — Arizona has regarded far more like its customary self. Bart Torvik charges the Wildcats because the eighth-best group within the nation since their profitable streak started, with the third-best offense.
So, how did that occur?
Largely by Lloyd discovering a rotation he likes. Earlier this season, he was struggling to seek out minutes for all his gamers — particularly within the frontcourt — however Motiejus Krivas’ season-ending harm has made it a tidy eight for Lloyd. That features Tobe Awaka — who leads the nation in offensive rebounding proportion, per KenPom — and Henri Veesaar largely dividing up the middle minutes. On the 4, Trey Townsend nonetheless begins and has a task, however he’s ceded time to five-star freshman Carter Bryant, who has impressed as a stretch-four in restricted minutes.
Jaden Bradley, Caleb Love, and KJ Lewis are nonetheless the headliners on the perimeter — however the true distinction the final 5 video games, and the man who makes all these lineup permutations click on, is Campbell switch Anthony Dell’Orso. The Wildcats are undefeated since he joined the beginning lineup. And whereas Dell’Orso — Arizona’s finest 3-point shooter, at 42.6 p.c — has solely averaged 7.6 factors, 2 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per recreation as a starter, his floor-spacing gravity and willingness to maneuver the ball has been important to the Wildcats’ latest success. Per CBB Analytics, Arizona’s offense scores 6.9 extra factors per 100 possessions with Dell’Orso on the ground than with him sitting, to not point out capturing 4.9 p.c higher as a group from 3. He’s particularly unlocked Arizona’s transition offense, the Wildcats’ most effective offensive motion, per Synergy.
Right here he was Tuesday at West Virginia, serving to Arizona reestablish momentum shortly after halftime with a 1 versus 2 transition layup:
And about that willingness to share the ball:
Lastly, to the purpose about Dell’Orso’s gravity: As soon as Love (No. 1) drives left, Dell’Orso floats to the nook to unencumber house for the drive — and Dell’Orso’s defender by no means turns his head or tries to stunt as a result of he’s centered on the 3-point menace forward of him. (His final peek at Love is correct earlier than the drive.) Between that and Veesaar sealing inside, Love has (barely) sufficient room to get off a tricky midrange 2. Dell’Orso’s defender is correct behind Love when he shoots … however fully unaware:
Dell’Orso isn’t Arizona’s finest participant, or perhaps even in its prime 5. However he’s the embodiment of the significance of position and match — one thing Arizona has found out during the last month and which has positioned it to be an element within the Massive 12 race.
(Picture of Zhuric Phelps: Maria Lysaker / Imagn Pictures)