Court Vision: Why is NCAA Tournament expansion talk a thing? Is Gonzaga really in trouble?

Did March sneak up on anybody else?

We have now been having fun with the common season a lot that we form of forgot it’s virtually over. However the actuality is, the primary convention match bracket — thanks, Atlantic Solar — is already out. League titles are being clinched. The bubble is effervescent. All the issues!

However which means it’s time for one in all our least favourite annual storylines: grasping, grubby fingers attempting to wreck one thing that doesn’t want fixing.

1. NCAA Event enlargement

On “School GameDay” two weekends in the past, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported (virtually unprompted) that whereas NCAA Event enlargement talks are nonetheless ongoing, decision-makers “appear to be down the highway” with an idea that might alter the perfect postseason in sports activities by rising the sphere from 68 groups to probably 76.

“We must always know pretty quickly,” Thamel stated. “Two, three months. One thing like that.”

Hubert Davis’ North Carolina Tar Heels are 1-10 in Quad 1 video games this season. (John Byrum / Icon Sportswire through Getty Pictures)

On the danger of calling enlargement “imminent,” Thamel isn’t reporting this stay on GameDay if it weren’t a critical risk. And provided that timeline, the NCAA and its tv companions might decide on an settlement in time to regulate the 2026 match. All of which is a great distance of claiming, this very properly would be the final Massive Dance as we all know it and as we’ve identified it since 1985.

Mechanically talking, what would possibly going to 76 groups appear to be? An expanded First 4, per Thamel, with eight groups competing in Dayton — the place the First 4 is held yearly — and eight extra at one other web site to be decided (possible outdoors of the Japanese time zone, for logistical causes).

Utilizing The Athletic’s newest bracket prediction, let’s take into account what this 12 months’s area would appear to be with 76 groups. All the following can be included, somewhat than sweating out their spots:

• Indiana (17-11), which already has introduced coach Mike Woodson might be stepping down
• Wake Forest (19-9), which has one Prime-25 win all season and has misplaced consecutive video games to 11-17 NC State and 14-14 Virginia
• North Carolina (18-11), which is 1-10 in Quad 1 video games with a single victory all season over a staff at the moment regarded as within the area
• SMU (21-7), which has zero top-50 wins all season
• Plus Cincinnati, Xavier, Boise State and TCU, which have mixed to go 37-31 of their respective conferences with simply two Prime-25 wins

Aside from SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, who desires that?

Relating to Sankey, whose tenure has included going scorched earth on every thing faculty sports activities maintain pricey in pursuit of cartoonish stacks of money, it ought to shock nobody that Thamel stated enlargement conversations have been “pushed by the facility conferences.” Sankey even instructed The Athletic final spring that computerized bids for smaller conferences ought to be “a part of the assessment” of the NCAA Event. Suffice it to say, it’s apparent how that is going to go: Extra mediocre high-major groups (like those above) might be included whereas deserving mid-majors get not noted within the chilly.

Which of those resumes is extra deserving of creating the Massive Dance?

Cheap arguments may be made for either side. It’s a coin flip. Do you favor the overall wins and higher Q1 file or the metric rankings? Time’s up. Workforce A is … San Diego State, and Workforce B is … Georgia. In The Athletic’s newest bracket, these two face off on this season’s First 4.

The purpose is that each have defensible arguments for inclusion. However does anybody assume that many — if any — of these further bids are going to groups like SDSU? From the Mountain West, Missouri Valley or Massive West, as an alternative of the SEC?

In the event you do, I’ve a bridge to promote you.

The easy logic is that extra video games equal extra income. NCAA Event income accounts for, at most, 5 p.c of the finances at most high-major colleges (though it’s extra at mid- and low-majors). That’s not nothing, however within the grand scheme of recent faculty sports activities, it’s not the end-all, be-all. The motivation for enlargement, then, is as a lot about “inclusion” as anything. With Division I males’s basketball having ballooned to 364 groups — which is a narrative for an additional day — solely 18.7 p.c of Division I is represented in a 68-team area. And whereas 76 groups are solely marginally higher, at 20.9 p.c of groups, that does transfer the needle at the least just a little nearer to the 25 p.c threshold advisable by the NCAA Division I Transformation Committee in January 2023.

However who cares what that committee advisable?

The NCAA Event has existed in its present iteration for 4 a long time and has confirmed time and time once more that it wants no alterations. Want anybody be reminded of Saint Peters’ Elite 8 run in 2022? Fairleigh-Dickinson in 2023? Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State within the Remaining 4? Folks like Sankey aren’t advocating for extra of these alternatives; they’re advocating for extra {dollars} of their pockets and extra of their toys within the sandbox — at Cinderella’s expense.

2. It’s time to speak Gonzaga

Gonzaga isn’t going to overlook the NCAA Event, proper?

It’s nearer than you’d assume and nearer than the Zags really have been to the cutline since perhaps 2011. Mark Few’s staff went 25-10 that season with simply three top-50 wins within the common season, in comparison with two sub-100 losses. It in the end earned a No. 11 seed — one in all simply 3 times up to now twenty years (the others being 2007 and 2016) that Gonzaga has been a double-digit seed.

Now evaluate that to this season. Gonzaga’s on the identical tempo: 22-8 with solely two top-50 wins, each of which got here in November. And whereas these Zags don’t have any sub-100 losses weighing down their resume, they don’t have any wins over sure-fire match groups. (Baylor and San Diego State — Gonzaga’s two top-50 wins — are solidly on the bubble.) Frankly, the pc rankings are carrying lots of weight for Few’s staff as Gonzaga is within the prime 10 in each the NET and by KenPom. After Gonzaga, the following highest-ranked NET staff with two or fewer Quad-1 wins is VCU, at 29.

GO DEEPER

NCAA Event 2025 Bracket Watch: Auburn and Duke avoidance is a great Remaining 4 play

Whereas Few’s staff isn’t under the cutline, it will serve the Zags properly to not fall flat of their regular-season finale vs. San Francisco on Saturday or within the WCC match. Bracket Matrix has Gonzaga as a No. 9 seed, however that’s earlier than Tuesday’s, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s outcomes consider. (The SEC earned a number of large bubble wins this week, like Arkansas over Texas and Georgia over Florida.)

With Saint Mary’s sweeping the regular-season collection and clinching the WCC outright for the second straight season, it’s the primary time since 1990-92 — when Few was nonetheless a fresh-faced assistant — that Gonzaga hasn’t earned at the least a share of the WCC regular-season title in consecutive campaigns. That speaks to the staff’s relative mediocrity in addition to something.

Gonzaga’s on the level the place it’s going to get the advantage of the doubt from the committee. And it’s not prefer it has any dangerous losses, with an extra time highway defeat at 20-win Oregon State because the worst of the bunch.

However it’s a state of affairs price monitoring in the course of the subsequent few weeks. I wouldn’t wager on the Zags lacking the sphere if the bracket dropped at the moment, but when nothing else, Gonzaga making a tenth consecutive Candy 16 — which might break its tie with Duke for the longest such streak of the fashionable period — feels, unlikely.

3. A bubblicious highlight

Three groups that, for higher or worse, received’t go away:

Arkansas: This feels unimaginable given the Razorbacks’ early season “protection,” however it’s true: Arkansas has the fifth-best adjusted defensive effectivity within the nation since Feb. 1, per Bart Torvik, forward of juggernauts equivalent to Duke, Tennessee and Houston. And it’s not like John Calipari’s staff has been taking part in dangerous groups this month. Arkansas is 5-3 throughout that stretch with wins over Kentucky and Missouri, that are each monitoring as top-four seeds. So, what provides?

GO DEEPER

Males’s faculty basketball bubble watch: SEC hopefuls surging simply earlier than March

For starters, credit score to Calipari, who many of the faculty basketball universe was doubting weeks in the past. And why wouldn’t we? Arkansas defended ball screens about in addition to you and I do, pricey readers. The proof, from the Hogs’ first SEC recreation vs. Tennessee:

Does the first defender cease his man? Nope. How concerning the screener’s defender stopping the roll man? Additionally no. It’s not fairly a purple carpet to the basket, however it’s as shut as you’ll discover in a high-major convention recreation.

Now evaluate that to Wednesday evening and Arkansas’ ball-screen protection vs. Texas:

That’s the identical main defender, D.J. Wagner (No. 21), solely he appears to be like like a unique participant. He chased over the display and prevented the straightforward drive or pull-up jumper. In the meantime, Jonas Aidoo (No. 9) stayed degree with the screener as quickly as he rolled, reducing off any potential passing window. The roll subsequently acquired blown up on the bottom by Johnell Davis. Julian Larry nonetheless tried the publish entry, and Aidoo got here away with the straightforward steal. Total, it was a lot stickier, stouter protection.

Opponents have shot solely 30 p.c from 3-point vary in opposition to Arkansas this month, per Bart Torvik, and that may be a top-50 fee nationally. That’s extra like Calipari’s previous Kentucky groups, which relied on lanky athletes to disrupt opposing actions. Mix that defensive surge with Zvonimir Ivisic’s offensive ascent — the 7-foot-2 Croatian has the primary three 20-point video games of his profession within the Hogs’ previous six video games whereas capturing 40 p.c from 3 — and Calipari has a staff that instantly doesn’t look so enjoyable to play in opposition to.

GO DEEPER

What Georgia’s upset win over Florida means in SEC, NCAA race

Georgia: Perhaps the largest bubble results of the week was Georgia’s surprising 88-83 win over Florida. However the closing rating doesn’t practically do this recreation justice. UGA led by as many as 26 factors within the first half earlier than Florida mounted a comeback. The Gators finally went on a 13-0 run within the closing jiffy to take their first lead all evening, 79-78, with lower than 90 seconds to play. However quickly after, Blue Cain delivered what turned out to be the game-winning 3-pointer on his first try from deep within the recreation:

Georgia compelled a turnover and a missed deep 3 on Florida’s subsequent two possessions to seal it. Wildly, that accomplished Georgia’s first AP top-five win since January 2004, and it is perhaps the ultimate piece to the Bulldogs’ NCAA Event resume. A 5-10 SEC file shouldn’t be something to write down house about, however the total resume ain’t dangerous.

A nonconference, neutral-court win over St. John’s has aged marvelously, as has a house win over Kentucky in Georgia’s second SEC recreation. Plus, each loss is to a top-40 staff. And with Texas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt left on the schedule, there’s room for Mike White’s staff to stack a number of extra wins and eradicate any doubt.

North Carolina: Because the NET was first launched in 2018-19, just one staff has made the NCAA Event with a single Quad 1 win: Drake in 2021.

That doesn’t bode properly for UNC, which is at the moment 1-10 in Quad 1 video games. However the excellent news? The Tar Heels, who’ve received 4 straight behind a revamped beginning lineup (albeit in opposition to horrible competitors), have seemingly rediscovered some confidence, simply in time for one final crack at a second Quad 1 win.

The dangerous information is that the sport is in opposition to Duke, which appears to be like like the perfect staff within the nation and led by greater than 30 the primary time the rivals confronted off in early February.

On one hand, that matchup stays terrible for the undersized Tar Heels. However on the danger of getting Tar Heels followers’ hopes up: What if Hubert Davis’ staff has discovered one thing of late? As a result of very quietly UNC has posted the fourth-best adjusted offensive effectivity within the nation throughout this successful streak, per Bart Torvik. (Don’t say something concerning the 198th-ranked protection.) Admittedly, these wins have come in opposition to 12-16 Syracuse, 11-17 NC State, 14-14 Virginia and 16-12 Florida State. However the bigger shift behind that surge would possibly carry: Davis as soon as once more tweaking his beginning lineup and eventually including some dimension.

He reinserted 6-9 graduate ahead Jae’Lyn Withers, who began UNC’s first seven video games, into the beginning 5, which allowed Davis to cease misplaying 6-6 freshman wing Drake Powell as a small-ball 4. These choices in flip despatched sometimes-starters Ian Jackson and Seth Trimble to the bench, though each nonetheless see vital minutes. It’s not a direct correlation, however that spacing and lineup stability have contributed to UNC, which shot a middling 34 p.c from 3 all season, instantly pulling down 44.4 p.c of its 3s the previous two weeks, good for the Fifteenth-best fee within the nation.

Is that sustainable? That’s each a Withers-specific and big-picture query. As for Withers, there’s a large discrepancy between his manufacturing in UNC’s first 25 video games and its previous 4:

• First 25 video games: 4.6 factors, 3.4 rebounds and 38.2 p.c from 3 in 14 minutes per recreation
• Previous 4 video games: 13.5 factors, 6.5 rebounds and 62.5 p.c from 3 in 23.5 minutes

Anticipating a participant who made 13 of his 34 3-point makes an attempt in the course of the first 4 months of the season to instantly sustain a 10-for-16 fee is sort of positively setting Withers as much as fail. However the spacing he offers won’t be idiot’s gold and would possibly present UNC its greatest probability of countering Cooper Flagg and Duke.

Beating Duke is UNC’s best approach to push to the suitable aspect of the bubble, however even a loss in that recreation isn’t essentially deadly if the Tar Heels’ newfound lineup leads them on a mini ACC Event run. Crazier issues have occurred.

​(Prime picture of Mike Woodson: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire through Getty Pictures)