New Delhi: Gujarat BJP president C.R. Patil has set an formidable goal for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections — to safe victory in all 26 seats with a margin of 5 lakh votes in every, ThePrint has learnt. And when he says one thing, nobody takes him calmly since he’s identified to stroll the discuss.
Take the 2022 Gujarat meeting election, when many within the opposition and even inside the BJP predicted that the celebration would win round 120 of the state’s 182 seats. Patil was bolder, estimating that the BJP would win 150 seats. He was proper.
The BJP bagged 156 seats, breaking the state report of 149 set by the Congress beneath Madhav Singh Solanki in 1985. Patil, who is alleged to be extremely trusted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was accorded a lot of the credit score for this historic victory because of his efficient methods.
Now, along with his sights set on the Lok Sabha polls, Patil is urging celebration employees to not simply work in the direction of a rating of 26/26 — a feat that the BJP additionally achieved within the 2014 and 2019 elections — however to make sure that all Congress rivals carry out so miserably that they lose their safety deposits.
Talking to ThePrint, Patil stated he had two main causes to be assured — the Modi issue and the state’s “web page committees” to micromanage voters.
“The Prime Minister’s reputation is at its highest and the federal government’s work has benefited everybody on the bottom. Gujaratis are additionally emotionally related to the PM,” he stated.
“We might have some components working towards us, however we’ve got analysed the state of affairs and are assured that our web page committee members can make sure that all our candidates will win by an enormous margin,” he added.
The aforementioned “web page committees” have been an efficient instrument in Patil’s electoral arsenal. Within the 2022 meeting elections, these five-member committees have been deployed to micromanage round 30 voters in every electoral web page.
All members — about 82 lakh in all— have been tasked with convincing their relations and different shut associates to vote for the BJP.
The technique is an extension of the celebration’s panna pramukh (web page chief) mannequin, through which one particular person is charged with managing one web page of the voters’ checklist.
BJP leaders who spoke to ThePrint stated that they have been as satisfied as Patil that the web page committees would assist them exceed the already spectacular performances that the celebration registered within the final two Lok Sabha elections.
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Setting the bar larger
The BJP received all 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat in 2014 after which not solely repeated this feat however improved its vote-share in 2019.
Within the 2019 election, the celebration obtained 62.2 per cent of the votes polled, up from 60 per cent in 2014. Additional, 15 BJP candidates received by a margin of over 3 lakh votes in comparison with simply six in 2014. A victory margin of lower than two lakh votes was registered solely in 4 constituencies — Dahod, Junagadh, Anand, and Patan.
Maybe poetically, the very best margin of all — not simply in Gujarat however your entire nation, surpassing even PM Modi— was registered in Navsari, the place C.R. Patil polled 6.9 lakh votes greater than his nearest competitor, Dharmeshbhai Patel of the Congress.
One other prime scorer was Amit Shah, now Union House Minister, who received the Gandhinagar seat by a margin of 5.57 lakh votes. Darshana Jardosh (Ahmedabad East) and Ranjanben Bhatt (Vadodara) additionally beat out the competitors by over 5 lakh votes, whereas Hasmukhbhai Somabhai Patel (Ahmedabad West) received by over 4 lakh votes, whereas the remaining candidates raced forward within the vary of two to over three lakh votes.
Now, the celebration desires to do even higher, by making certain that each one candidates win by a margin of over 5 lakh votes.
In line with a Gujarat BJP functionary, this was “not a really tough job”.
“The BJP’s margin within the 2022 meeting ballot was 85 lakh. We received 1.67 crore votes and the Congress received 86 lakh. Within the 2019 common election, we obtained 1.80 crore votes. To realize a five-lakh victory margin in all Lok Sabha constituencies, we solely want so as to add 45 lakh extra votes, which isn’t a really tough job for the celebration,” he claimed.
He added that Lok Sabha polls have been “simpler” than meeting elections since folks have been extra prone to solid their vote in favour of PM Modi relatively than the native candidate.
Web page committees & ballot math
The BJP’s resounding victory within the 2022 meeting ballot had rather a lot to do with the “scientific” and “sturdy” methods deployed by C.R. Patil, celebration leaders say. Certainly, even PM Modi gave credit score for the win to Patil and the state unit he deftly managed.
A serious winner amongst Patil’s technique have been the five-member web page committees, collectively comprising 82 lakh registered members. Every committee has to make sure votes from a web page of 30 voters.
“If two members of the web page committee guarantee two votes, we might simply win all Lok Sabha seats. However to make sure an even bigger victory margin, we’ve got to make sure each member ensures three votes of their household and pals. It’s going to translate to 2.4 crore votes, which isn’t unattainable to attain,” stated a senior state BJP functionary.
Talking to ThePrint, BJP state common secretary Bhargav Bhatt shed additional mild on the celebration’s calculations.
“Within the 2022 meeting election, we received 1.67 crore votes, which is 27 lakh extra votes than 2017. Within the Lok Sabha elections, we usually get extra votes. In 2019, it was 1.80 crore votes. We’ve got so as to add 40-45 lakh votes to get an even bigger victory margin. If 70-75 per cent of our web page committee members carry out, we will obtain the goal of an even bigger margin victory in Lok Sabha,” he stated.
Bhargav added that the struggle was not simply to win, however to win larger “as Patil ji has mounted the goal to attain”.
He stated that the outcomes of the meeting elections have been analysed and now the state unit is engaged on including extra web page committees forward of the Lok Sabha polls.
State BJP vice-president Gordhan Zadafia instructed ThePrint that to attain its formidable victory margin goal, the celebration must get at the very least “6.4 lakh votes” in each constituency.
“Usually, in each Lok Sabha constituency, on common 15-16 lakh folks dwell, and the common polling is round 8.40 lakh. We have to get 6.4 lakh votes in each Lok Sabha constituency to get that victory margin,” he stated.
“Each web page has a mean of 30 voters. For victory, the wants 18 votes at each web page, which is 60 per cent of polling. The celebration received 62 p.c votes in 2019. If we add three votes at each web page, getting 21 votes per web page, we’ll obtain the goal of successful each Lok Sabha seat by a 5 lakh margin simply,” he added.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)
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