Commerce particulars: The Los Angeles Dodgers purchase RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot from the Tampa Bay Rays in change for OF Jonny Deluca and RHP Ryan Pepiot
On the identical day once they launched Shohei Ohtani as a Dodger, the crew swung an enormous commerce, agreeing to a deal that will add right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from the Rays in change for 2 younger gamers, right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, who haven’t even reached arbitration and have 5 and 6 years of crew management left, respectively. (The deal is contingent on Glasnow and the Dodgers understanding a contract extension, however that’s not a part of the commerce itself, because the Dodgers are solely buying one yr of Glasnow’s service and the $25 million he’s owed for 2024.)
Glasnow is without doubt one of the finest pitchers in baseball when wholesome, which he has not been for any important size of time in his major-league profession. He struck out a 3rd of batters he confronted in 2023 after his return from Tommy John surgical procedure, and his 2.91 FIP would have ranked second within the AL if he’d certified, between league-leader Sonny Grey and Kevin Gausman. Glasnow was even higher in 2021 earlier than the surgical procedure, with a 2.77 FIP and a pair of.66 ERA that each would have led the league if he’d certified — though that yr he solely threw 88 innings earlier than the damage.
Glasnow is 6-foot-8 and makes unbelievable use of his top, with a number of the finest extension out entrance of any pitcher in baseball at 7.5 toes. He sits 96-97 mph with two plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. The slider has far more energy — Statcast has him throwing a number of at 93 and alter, which is unlawful in a number of states — whereas the curveball has above-average vertical break that performs up due to that extension. He barely makes use of a changeup and over the course of his profession has proven no platoon cut up, however final season he had some bother with lefties, one thing that bears watching in case something has materially modified post-surgery.
The larger challenge, in fact, is sturdiness: His complete of 120 innings in 2023 was truly a profession excessive within the majors, and essentially the most he’s thrown in any season since 2016, when he had his skilled better of 140 innings and made his major-league debut. The Dodgers want high quality of their rotation, however additionally they want amount, with so many query marks as it’s between inexperience and guys coming off accidents. Glasnow offers them high quality, however I’ve no actual concept what number of innings they’ll depend on him throwing.
Margot could also be a platoon candidate with Jason Heyward. (Orlando Ramirez / USA As we speak)
Manuel Margot is a high-contact hitter with little or no energy whose worth largely got here from his plus protection wherever within the outfield, however since a knee damage in 2022, that defensive worth hasn’t been on show. From 2017-21, he was at 9-12 Runs Above Common (per Statcast) in each full season, however dropped to minus-1 in 2022 and 1 this previous season. He’s positively misplaced a step or two, a decline that was already in progress even earlier than the knee damage, so I’m not that sanguine that he’s going to bounce all the way in which again on protection.
If the Dodgers need him to platoon with Jason Heyward in proper area, dealing with left-handed pitching (in opposition to whom he’s hit .281/.341/.420 in his profession, versus .244/.294/.370 versus righties), he’ll have worth. I’m unsure they’ll depend on him to do extra. He’s underneath contract for one yr at $10 million and has a $12 million mutual possibility for 2025.
I discussed in my write-up of the Shohei Ohtani/Decoy contract that Ryan Pepiot “was excellent in 5 September begins, throwing extra strikes than he ever has in professional ball, though 4 had been in opposition to a number of the lowest-scoring offenses in baseball.” That’s clearly nonetheless true, and he’s not going to face that many low-scoring offenses whereas pitching within the AL East, which had 4 groups above the league median for runs per sport, and the fifth simply added Juan Freaking Soto.
Pepiot has no less than a grade-70 changeup, and after a disastrous debut in 2022 the place he had no command and struggled to get to the change or end it, he had it again final yr, and his fastball performed higher due to it. The changeup has a ton of late motion, particularly down, and hitters battle to tell apart between it and his mid-90s four-seamer as a result of he releases the ball to this point out over his entrance facet. His slider has improved to be a viable weapon in opposition to right-handed batters, though in 2022 the story was that utilizing the slider extra threw off his supply and compromised his command and his changeup. None of that was evident in 2023 as soon as he returned from a four-month layoff as a result of an indirect damage; he threw strikes within the minors and did so within the majors, with all three pitches proving efficient in his major-league time.
There’s positively danger right here, as a result of his historical past of getting even common management is proscribed largely to 2023, however the Rays like taking dangers on guys with this form of upside (e.g., a grade-70 or higher pitch) and still have a great observe report in pitching improvement. He slots proper into their rotation into the spot vacated by Glasnow.
Jonny Deluca, no relation to NWH supervisor Whitey, was a Twenty fifth-round select of Oregon in 2019, debuted final yr at age 24 and confirmed plus pace and cheap pitch recognition for a rookie, albeit with much less energy than he’d proven within the low minors. I’d written earlier than final season that he was extra of a 55 runner and would possibly transfer to a nook, however the pace and protection he confirmed in his cup of espresso final summer time makes heart area appear extra viable.
Deluca was a powerful fastball hitter within the minors, and his points with breaking stuff carried over to the large leagues, which is hardly stunning however is clearly his greatest danger issue. He additionally didn’t make a lot onerous contact within the majors in a tiny pattern, however that’s out of character together with his time within the minors, the place he no less than made sufficient to mission to common energy. The Rays gave Jose Siri and his heinous .267 OBP the vast majority of taking part in time in heart final yr, as he’s an elite defender with plus energy, and he nonetheless managed to be price 2.7 fWAR, which simply aggravates me on a stage I can’t even clarify. A .267 OBP is against the law in opposition to an offense. Anyway, possibly Deluca can unseat him sooner or later, both this yr or when Siri turns into arbitration-eligible in 2025.
When you’re sensing that I’ve reservations about everybody on this deal, you’re proper, and I believe this entails much more danger for the Dodgers as a result of the stakes are increased for them. It’s World Sequence or bust for Los Angeles this yr, and so they simply added probably the greatest starters in baseball who can be one of the crucial unreliable (from the angle of innings pitched, no less than). There’s a small however actual probability that Pepiot offers the Rays extra in 2023 than Glasnow offers the Dodgers, if Pepiot’s obvious steps ahead final yr maintain up over a full season within the majors.
There’s additionally an opportunity this works out for everybody — Glasnow has his first full season as a starter, the Dodgers sprinkle their fairy mud on Margot and he and Heyward mix for five wins in proper area, whereas Pepiot turns into a mid-rotation starter and Deluca develops into an everyday. I simply see huge ranges of doable outcomes for 3 of the gamers, all however Margot, and that will increase the chance for everybody concerned.
(Prime picture of Glasnow: Julio Aguilar/Getty Photographs)