New Delhi: Karnataka has seen eight chief ministers since 2008, when the southern state turned the primary to carry elections after the boundaries of constituencies have been redrawn following the report of the 2002 delimitation fee.
Nevertheless, about one in 4 seats (out of 224 meeting seats) has had the identical end result over the past three elections. Extra exactly, voters of 58 seats — 25 Congress, 23 BJP and 10 JD(S) — selected the identical celebration in 2008, 2013 and 2018.
In its stronghold of southern Karnataka, Janata Dal (Secular) has retained 10 seats constantly over the previous three elections. All of them are from the Vokkaliga belt of Previous Mysuru area.
In distinction, the Congress and the BJP have 8 and 4 seats, respectively, in Previous Mysuru.
JD(S) patriarch H.D. Deve Gowda’s son H.D. Revanna, BJP nationwide basic secretary C.T. Ravi and Congress state president D.Okay. Shivakumar are among the many MLAs who’ve received three consecutive phrases from Previous Mysuru area.
An in depth look reveals that six of the entire 10 JD(S) seats come from Hassan and Mandya districts, that are thought-about to be household bastions of former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda. Total, the JD(S) received 28, 40 and 37 seats in 2008, 2013 and 2018 in Karnataka, in response to Election Fee knowledge.
Given the sway of Vokkaligas in Previous Mysuru and another pockets, the BJP has fielded 42 candidates from the influential neighborhood this time.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited Mysuru eight occasions up to now 9 years. With a watch on Vokkaliga votes, he inaugurated a 108-foot statue of Nadaprabhu Kempegowda, a Sixteenth-century chieftain of the Vijayanagara empire, in Bengaluru final 12 months.
“No celebration which doesn’t carry out properly in Previous Mysuru and both Mumbai-Karnataka or Hyderabad-Karnataka is ready to get a majority of the seats,” Sandeep Shastri, professional vice-chancellor of Bengaluru’s Jain College, advised ThePrint.
“If a celebration will get a majority of seats, it’s due to good efficiency in Previous Mysuru, plus both Mumbai-Karnataka or Hyderabad-Karnataka. And that is the explanation for the BJP falling wanting a majority in 2008 and 2018,” he added.
Half of the seats in Bengaluru locked
Bengaluru, which has a big presence of Vokkaligas, falls in south Karnataka. Nevertheless it’s handled as a separate division for its political character.
Residence to 1.3 crore folks, Bengaluru is politically essential because it sends 28 MLAs to the Karnataka meeting. The BJP has been on a profitable streak in 9 seats over the past three elections. The Congress shouldn’t be far behind with 7, indicating how the 2 nationwide events are firmly entrenched of their strongholds.
Out of the 28 seats right here, BJP received 11 in 2018 and the Congress, 13. Two went to the JD(S), whereas two seats didn’t go to polls on the time
Former state Congress president Dinesh Gundu Rao, former Congress minister M. Krishnappa, BJP minister C.N. Ashwathnarayan and former BJP minister S. Suresh Kumar are among the many MLAs who’ve received three consecutive phrases from Bengaluru.
Additionally Learn: BJP & JD(S) edge out Congress in direct fights — analysing strike charges in Karnataka polls
BJP dominance in coastal areas & Kittur-Karnataka
Whereas the BJP received 30 seats in Kittur-Karnataka within the 2018 election, it received 16 in coastal Karnataka. Each Kittur-Karnataka and coastal areas are thought-about BJP strongholds for various causes.
Comprising Udupi, Dakshina Kannada and Uttara Kannada districts, coastal Karnataka is usually referred to as the “BJP’s Hindutva lab”. It was solely in 2013 that the Congress managed to outperform the BJP within the area because the latter’s votes received cut up following B.S. Yediyurappa’s insurrection.
Of the 19 seats right here, the BJP has retained solely Sullia and Sirsi since 2008, whereas the Congress can boast of just one such seat — Mangaluru.
In Lingayat-dominated Kittur-Karnataka area, which accounts for 50 seats, 6 seats — Raybag, Saundatti Yellamma, Shiggaon, Mudhol, Hubli-Dharwad-West, Hubli-Dharwad-Central — have been with the BJP since 2008.
Congress dominance in Kalyana-Karnataka
Kalyana-Karnataka has a mixture of backward courses, Kurubas, Lingayats and minorities in its 41 seats. Out of the general 25 seats that the Congress has received constantly since 2008 in Karnataka, six are on this area. The BJP has solely two such seats (Aurad and Gulbarga Dakshin) right here. Thought of a Congress stronghold, the celebration received 20 seats from the area in 2018.
Within the 13 seats unfold throughout the districts of Davangere and Chitradurga in central Karnataka, the BJP received 10 within the earlier election. Voters in none of those seats voted constantly for the BJP within the final three elections.
The Congress has one such seat — Davangere South — the place 91-year outdated five-time MLA Shamanur Shivashankarappa was renominated in 2018.
Candidate change
Of the 25 seats constantly with the Congress since 2008, 18 have been received by the identical candidates. This 12 months, the Congress is ready to repeat all MLAs in all these seats barring Gokak, the place it has fielded Mahantesh Kadadi, and Shivajinagar, the place the candidate is Rizwan Arshad.
Shivashankarappa (Davangere South), Karnataka Congress chief D.Okay. Shivakumar (Kanakapura), celebration working president Eshwara Khandre (Bhalki), former state Congress chief Dinesh Gundu Rao (Gandhinagar) belong to the group of legislators with not less than three consecutive wins from the identical seats.
One other such candidate is former Congressman Ramesh Jarkiholi, who, nonetheless, is with the BJP now. The Gokak MLA essayed a significant function within the insurrection in 2019 that led to the collapse of the Congress-JD(S) authorities.
Within the remaining 7 seats as properly, the place the celebration has received regardless of completely different candidates, all Congress MLAs have gotten ballot tickets barring the high-profile constituency of Varuna.
Former chief minister Siddaramaiah is contesting from this constituency, which was received by his son Yathindra in 2018. The Congress stalwart, who received in 2008 and 2013 from Varuna, is locking horns with the BJP’s V. Somanna.
Moreover, the three seats of Afzalpur, Bangarapet and Doddaballapur have been retained by the Congress even after the sitting MLAs defected to the BJP at completely different factors previous to the 2018 meeting election.
Within the BJP camp, CM Basavaraj Bommai (Shiggaon), C.T. Ravi (Chikmagalur), B.S. Yediyurappa (Shikaripura), C.N. Ashwathnarayan (Malleswaram), Anand Singh (Vijayanagar), and R. Ashoka (Padmanabhanagar) are amongst these candidates who’ve three or extra phrases as MLAs from the identical constituency.
Yediyurappa, nonetheless, received in 2013 on the ticket of the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP). The previous chief minister shaped the KJP in 2012 after he broke away from the BJP, however merged it once more with the nationwide celebration in 2014.
In 2013, when the BJP’s tally nosedived to 40 seats, the KJP spoilt the nationwide celebration’s prospects in not less than 29 constituencies.
As many as 21 out of 23 BJP strongholds relied on the identical candidate through the state polls in 2008, 2013 and 2018. The 2 exceptions have been Hubli-Dharwad-West and Gulbarga Dakshin, the place Arvind Bellad and Dattatraya Patil Revoor had taken the mantle from their fathers within the 2013 election.
This 12 months, 5 of the 23 seats won’t function incumbents for one cause or the opposite. Whereas Arvind Bellad is preventing from Hubli-Dharwad-East, and Jayanagar’s B.N. Vijay Kumar handed away, Jagadish Shettar (Hubli-Dharwad-Central) and S. Angara (Sullia) have been dropped from the BJP record. Yediyurappa, in the meantime, stepped apart for his son B.Y. Vijayendra in Shikaripura.
As for the JD(S), the regional celebration has received all 10 stronghold seats in southern Karnataka, which incorporates Previous Mysuru.
Seven seats — Arsikere, Gubbi, Holenarasipur, Krishnarajanagara, Magadi, Sakleshpur, Shravanabelagola — have had the identical candidates over the past three elections. JD(S) chief H.Okay. Kumaraswamy (Sakleshpur) and H.D. Revanna (Holenarasipur) are amongst these candidates.
The opposite three seats of Ramanagaram, Maddur and Shrirangapattana have been retained by the JD(S) regardless of fielding completely different candidates.
Former CM H.D. Kumaraswamy had received Ramanagaram thrice however he vacated it after the 2018 election outcomes as he determined to retain Channapatna. His spouse Anitha received the Ramanagaram bypoll by over 1 lakh votes.
After the dying of MLA M.S. Siddaraju in 2008, the JD(S) retained Maddur — Siddaraju’s spouse and D.C. Thammanna received the 2013 and 2018 state elections, respectively. Thammanna will likely be trying to rating a hat trick of wins when the election result’s out on 13 Could.
In Srirangapatna, A.B. Ramesha Bandisiddegowda turned to the Congress after profitable the 2008 and 2013 elections, however Ravindra Srikantaiah of the JD(S) trounced him in 2018. Each are locking horns once more this 12 months.
Three incumbent MLAs in these 10 seats are usually not preventing elections on the JD(S) ticket this time. Gubbi MLA S.R. Srinivas and Arsikere MLA Okay.M. Shivalinge Gowda, who received a number of phrases on JD(S) tickets, are Congress candidates.
In Ramanagaram, after Deve Gowda, his son Kumaraswamy and his daughter-in-law Anitha, the JD(S) patriarch’s grandson Nikhil Kumaraswamy is vying to symbolize the constituency within the Karnataka meeting.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
Additionally Learn: How 30 seats the place margin of victory was lower than 5,000 in 2018 might resolve destiny of Karnataka polls