New Delhi: In 2018, the Bharatiya Janata Social gathering (BJP) misplaced 16 seats in Karnataka with a margin of lower than 5,000 votes, an evaluation of election knowledge from that 12 months’s meeting election reveals. Of those, the celebration misplaced 12 seats by a margin of lower than 3,000 votes.
The BJP received 104 of the state’s 224 seats, rising as the only largest celebration. However the Congress, which received 78 seats, cobbled collectively a post-poll alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular), which had received 37 seats, to kind a authorities which lasted for under 14 months.
Though the BJP got here to energy in 2019 due to 17 defectors from the Congress-JD(S) alliance, knowledge reveals that these 16 seats — the place the BJP misplaced on account of lower than 5,000 votes — might have decisively swung the election its method.
With voting set to happen on 10 Might and the counting of votes on 13 Might, issues stand barely totally different this time, particularly with smaller events within the fray.
As an example, Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is about to contest in 25 of the whole 224 seats, whereas Social Democratic Social gathering of India (SDPI), the political wing of the outlawed Well-liked Entrance of India (PFI), is about to discipline its candidates in 100 seats. SDPI had claimed in 2018 that it had an “understanding” with the Congress.
These smaller events are anticipated to eat into the Muslim votes of the Congress and the JD(S), which is prone to be a significant fear for the 2 key gamers in Karnataka.
Then, there are events like G. Janardhana Reddy’s Kalyana Rajya Pragathi Paksha (KRPP) and the Aam Aadmi Social gathering (AAP).
Miffed with the BJP, mining baron and former BJP minister Reddy floated his personal celebration, the KRPP, final December. In February, it was introduced that he was going to contest the election towards his brother, sitting BJP MLA Somashekhar Reddy, from Ballari. Reddy’s candidature might additionally spell hassle for the Congress, particularly since he might cut up the anti-incumbency votes towards the Bommai authorities.
The AAP, in the meantime, declared in January that it was going to discipline candidates on all 224 seats.
Smaller events are a matter of concern in seats the place the victory margin was slim in 2018, say political consultants. And these 30 seats might make all of the distinction.
“In an in depth combat, even when they (small events) can take away 3,000-4,000 votes, it’s rather a lot. That’s the function they play. They can’t win an election, however can actually alter conditions in numerous constituencies,” Bengaluru-based political analyst and school on the Nationwide Institute of Superior Research (NIAS) Narendar Pani instructed ThePrint.
It’s additionally vital to notice that Congress received 18 of the 30 seats the place the margin of victory was lower than 5,000 votes in 2018. The BJP, however, received eight such seats and the JD(S) three.
One of many candidates who received with a margin of below 2,000 votes was former chief minister Siddaramaiah. The Congress chief contested from two seats that 12 months — Badami and Chamundeshwari. Whereas he received Badami by 1,696 votes, he misplaced Chamundeshwari, the seat he represented earlier, to G.T. Devegowda of the JD(S) by practically 36,000 votes.
Chambi Puranik, a retired professor of political science from the College of Mysore, instructed ThePrint that candidates need to be much more cautious in such seats.
“If the actual candidate has carried out effectively, remained related with the folks of the constituency, then sure, he undoubtedly stands a greater probability. And if individually he hasn’t carried out, then effectively, (voters) might neglect a celebration however they watch the person,” he stated.
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Defectors, ministers & these on the fence
Of the 17 rebels that helped carry down H.D. Kumaraswamy-led Congress-JD(S) authorities in 2019, 5 — Yellapur MLA Arabail Hebbar Shivaram, Athani MLA Mahesh Kumathalli, Ranibennur MLA R. Shankar, Hirekerur MLA after which agriculture minister B.C. Patil and Maski MLA Pratap Gouda Patil — had received with lower than 5,000 votes.
Moreover, S.R Mahesh of the JD(S), who has been representing the Krishnarajanagara seat since 2008, noticed his victory margin slender that 12 months. The MLA, who received in 2013 by a margin of 15,000 votes, noticed his margin of victory cut back to only over 1,700 in 2018.
Likewise, Congress MLAs M. Krishnappa (Vijaynagar) and R. Narendra (Hanur), who received their seats in 2008 and 2013 by a big margin (Krishnappa: 38,000 in 2008 and 11,500 in 2013; Narendra: 23,000 in 2008, and 32,600 in 2013), nearly crossed the ending line in 2018, profitable by over 2,700 and three,500 votes.
One other heavyweight with a slim margin of victory in 2018 was former JD(S) state president H.Ok. Kumaraswamy who received his present seat, Sakleshpur — which he has represented in 2008 and 2013 — by a margin of lower than 5,000 votes.
Mumbai-Karnataka & Lingayat issue
A major variety of seats that noticed an in depth combat in 2018 had been from the Kittur Karnataka area, previously often called Mumbai-Karnataka. In the present day, the area contains seven districts, specifically Uttara Kannada, Belagavi, Dharwad, Vijayapura, Bagalkote, Gadag and Haveri.
Of all of the 30 seats the place the margin of victory was lower than 5,000 votes in 2018, a dozen got here from this area. Congress received eight of these seats and the BJP received three.
One seat, Rannibennur, went to the Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Social gathering (KPJP) and was received by a margin of 4,300 votes. The celebration was based in 2017 by Puthurina Muthu D. Mahesh Gowda and makes use of an auto-rickshaw as its election image.
Politically, the Kittur Kannada holds a big place in Karnataka’s politics. Not solely does it ship 50 MLAs to the meeting however the present chief minister, Basavaraj Bommai, a Lingayat, belongs to the area which has a large presence of the neighborhood. Dominant gamers in Karnataka’s politics, they’re historically thought of near the BJP — primarily due to former chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa, a distinguished Lingayat chief.
In 2018, BJP misplaced seven seats on this area by a margin of lower than 5,000 votes. In Athani, then Congress candidate Mahesh Kumathalli beat his closest rival, Laxman Sangappa Savadi, by 2,331 votes.
“All districts besides Uttara Kannada have Lingayat voters in considerably giant numbers. Traditionally, they’ve been voting on the identify of a stalwart Lingayat chief, be it Veerendra Patil (Congress) or B.S. Yediyurappa (BJP),” the Deccan Herald quoted Belagavi-based political analyst Ashok Chandargi as saying on 7 March.
The margin of victory was additionally slender on a minimum of six seats every within the Hyderabad-Karnataka or Kalyana-Karnataka, and South Karnataka areas.
Closest fights
The 2018 meeting noticed wafer-thin victory margins in 5 seats — Maski, Kundgol, Hirekrur, Pavagada and Aland. The victory margins right here had been lower than 1,000 votes.
In Maski, the Congress candidate, Pratap Gowda Patil, who later defected to the BJP, received by 213 votes.
Such slender margins had been additionally witnessed in Kundgol, Hirekerur and Pavagada, the place Congress candidates received by 634, 555 and 409 votes. Solely different candidate with such a slim victory was BJP’s Guttedar Subhash Rukmayya, who received Aland by 697 votes.
Patil finally misplaced the seat to Basanagouda Turvihal, a former BJP chief who converted to the Congress, within the 2021 by-election.
Regardless of this, there have been Congress leaders who received with vital margins. Chief amongst them was R. Akhanda Srinivasamurthy, who received the Pulakeshinagar seat by a margin of 81,626 votes and Congress heavyweight D.Ok. Shivakumar, who received Kanakapura by a margin of 79,909 seats.
Puranik believes this election may very well be tougher for the Congress candidates who merely scraped by the final time. “If it’s a Congress candidate who received by a skinny margin, he’s extra in danger. However a BJP candidate may need a greater probability due to the double engine authorities and Modi-Yediyurappa issue,” he instructed ThePrint.
(Edited by Uttara Ramaswamy)
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