Have Nottingham Forest labored out a foolproof methodology of beating the Premier League’s ‘Large Six’?
Tuesday’s 1-0 victory towards Manchester United took them to 18 factors from a attainable 30 of their head-to-head encounters with the Premier League’s historic and monetary giants to this point this season.
Of the division’s different 14 golf equipment, solely Brighton and Hove Albion can match Forest’s charge of success towards Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester Metropolis, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur this season, and crucially, these factors have put Forest into a particularly robust place within the race for Champions League qualification.
However whereas Brighton usually go toe-to-toe stylistically with their extra illustrious opponents, the style by which Forest have achieved their outcomes is much more outstanding.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s facet not often dominate the ball — their 32 per cent common possession is the bottom of any group in these matches. Additionally they create comparatively little — no facet has a decrease common xG in fixtures towards the ‘Large Six’ — and so they press much less intensely than some other facet within the division.
So how, regardless of seemingly missing the hallmarks of a profitable fashionable facet, have they carried out it? Let’s break it down.
Nuno celebrates with Anthony Elanga after the victory towards Manchester United in midweek (Michael Steele/Getty Photos)
Whereas Forest have admittedly created little in ‘Large Six’ encounters, they’ve been extremely efficient at stifling their opponents on the different finish. Amongst all video games involving ‘Large Six’ groups this season, Forest’s fixtures have the bottom common mixed xG at simply 2.3. In matches like these the place alternatives are at a premium, the opening purpose turns into all of the extra decisive — and Forest have developed a knack for putting first, scoring the opener in 24 of their 30 league matches, greater than some other facet in 2024-25.
Their capability to restrain opposition assaults stems from a mix of a compact form, direct method, and the pace of their transitions. The outcomes are a document of only one purpose conceded in 5 residence video games towards the ‘Large Six’ to this point this season, with simply Chelsea to return.
Probability creation from quick breaks is a key characteristic of many ‘Large Six’ groups — 5 of the six rank within the prime six for xG from counter-attacks (Manchester Metropolis being the exception, with their extra methodical build-up). However Forest not often overcommit in possession and due to this fact discover themselves much less uncovered than most groups — proven by the very fact they’ve conceded the second-lowest xG from quick breaks within the Premier League this season.
An enormous motive for that’s the self-discipline of their midfield pivots — usually Elliot Anderson and Nicolas Dominguez — who have a tendency to carry their positions reasonably than making late runs into the field. Knowledge from Footovision exhibits that the common distance between Forest’s midfield and defensive traces in these video games is simply 11.6 metres — the bottom of any group towards ‘Large Six’ opposition.
That compactness carries over to their out-of-possession construction too, besides right here Nuno Espirito Santo usually instructs his entrance 4 to push excessive, apply stress and block passing lanes, whereas the midfield stays deeper to offer cowl.
Beneath is a typical instance towards Manchester Metropolis, the place the entrance 4 are engaged in disrupting their opponent’s build-up, but there’s a giant house in behind with the midfield opting to remain again and supply extra safety. The space between Forest’s attacking and midfield traces is the sixth-highest within the league, proof of this outlined break up of roles: Forest’s attackers keep excessive, the remainder of the group keep as compact as attainable.
When Metropolis do handle to play via the preliminary press, Forest retreat swiftly right into a low block, leaving solely talisman Chris Wooden forward of the ball.
This tight defensive form frustrates even the very best sides, and so they usually resort to trying low-quality possibilities from distance. The graphic beneath exhibits the place ‘Large Six’ groups are taking pictures from towards Forest in comparison with different opponents. Photographs from outdoors the field are extra frequent, notably within the left channel the place the determine of 13 per cent is considerably increased than six per cent elsewhere.
Loads of left-sided makes an attempt had been on present when Manchester United got here to the Metropolis Floor this week, with Alejandro Garnacho a repeat offender.
Forest’s slender construction usually encourages switches of play, and right here Dalot efficiently finds Garnacho with a crossfield move. However because the second slide exhibits, by the point Garnacho manoeuvres himself right into a taking pictures place, Forest have our bodies again in place reducing off taking pictures angles, and the Argentinian winger fires a wayward effort into the stands.
This defensive self-discipline isn’t simply reserved for the massive events — it’s one thing Forest have improved throughout the board. The typical distance of photographs confronted has elevated every season, and the bounce this marketing campaign is especially notable.
However Nottingham Forest’s spectacular factors haul hasn’t come solely from a disciplined defensive setup — they’ve additionally wanted their forwards to ship on the different finish.
Earlier than Forest’s 1-0 residence win over Manchester Metropolis, Pep Guardiola described Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, Wooden, and Morgan Gibbs-White as “distinctive gamers.” That evaluation proved prophetic when Hudson-Odoi netted a late winner for Forest.
Hudson-Odoi scores towards Manchester Metropolis in March 2025 (Shaun Botterill/Getty Photos)
Every of Forest’s attacking quartet brings one thing totally different to the desk, however their talent units complement one another successfully to offer an important inventive edge — notably throughout attacking transitions, which have been a constant supply of targets towards ‘Large Six’ opposition.
Though Forest usually discover themselves outnumbered once they break attributable to their defensive priorities, they persistently punch above their weight because of Elanga and Hudson-Odoi’s ball-carrying menace, Gibbs-White’s creativity, and Wooden’s scientific ending.
This counter-attacking prowess was on full show throughout Forest’s 1-0 win at Anfield earlier within the season — their first there since 1969. The profitable purpose started deep in their very own half, the place Forest regained possession earlier than Gibbs-White picked out Elanga with a wise around-the-corner move into the appropriate channel.
Elanga then surged ahead and delivered a pinpoint cross-field ball to Hudson-Odoi on the alternative flank, who lower inside and curled a composed end past Alisson.
Trademark Callum Hudson-Odoi 🤌
Our profitable purpose at Anfield 😍 pic.twitter.com/bfYzP75kbI
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) September 14, 2024
Hudson-Odoi’s scientific strike got here from a low-percentage alternative, and it will be remiss to not acknowledge the function of fortune in Forest’s season.
They’ve scored 50 targets from an anticipated targets tally of simply 38 — the largest over-performance within the division. Whereas persistently taking the lead speaks to their high quality, doing in order ceaselessly as they’ve additionally allows them to execute their sport plan extra successfully, sustaining that compact form reasonably than being compelled to chase video games.
Nonetheless, Forest have earned their share of excellent fortune this season. Their standout performances towards the league’s most established sides have showcased the qualities that justify their lofty place within the desk.
Nuno’s group could not play like a contemporary tremendous membership — however when going through groups that do, they’ve persistently discovered a method to thrive.
(Prime photograph: David Rogers/Getty Photos)