The ten-second 100-meter sprint. The four-minute mile. The 2-hour marathon. In baseball, is the 110 mph fastball the subsequent massive quantity to fall? What really is the higher restrict in the case of skilled pitchers throwing their quickest pitches?
There may be some debate about what the quickest fastball thus far has been. Within the documentary Fastball, filmmakers checked out just a few key moments from the previous. Bob Feller threw a ball quicker than an 86 mph bike. Nolan Ryan was clocked at 100.8 mph by a radar gun in 1974. If you happen to convert Ryan’s quantity to the out-of-the-hand methodology used to measure pitch velocity at present, you get 108 mph. For some, that counts because the quickest pitch on file.
We’ve been monitoring major-league pitchers with the identical high quality of know-how since 2007, although, and no one has thrown tougher than Aroldis Chapman and his 105.8 mph fastball in 2010. So Ryan’s 108 can be a big departure from 15 years of monitoring pitches — and, for what it’s price, it’s a big departure from radar gun readings over the remainder of his recreation that day, in addition to the remainder of his profession, which often topped out round 96 and 97 mph.
Some Nolan Ryan gun readings to indicate how random Radar gun/Laser know-how was again within the day. pic.twitter.com/BAuEMAbTIM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) January 20, 2024
Since these different pitchers had been clocked utilizing outdated know-how, it’s in all probability fairest to name 105.8 mph the fashionable file in fastball velocity. In order that’s how briskly a human has thrown the ball. However what’s the quickest a human being might throw the ball?
“While you construct up a easy physics mannequin that’s primarily a sequence of collisions between physique elements, you get a max fastball velocity of about 125 mph,” stated Jimmy Buffi, who has a PhD in biomedical engineering. Buffi is a former Los Angeles Dodgers analyst and is a co-founder of Reboot Movement, a participant improvement consultancy agency.
“We’ll want to make use of new strategies,” stated Kyle Boddy, present Boston Purple Sox marketing consultant and the founding father of Driveline Baseball, a participant improvement lab and consultancy firm. “If there’s a option to proceed on, it gained’t be with present strategies. Utilizing the most effective mechanics from elite pitchers, piecemeal, is unlikely to be the best way we are able to create the 110 mph pitcher.”
Others thought concerning the potential for harm on this pursuit – pitching accidents have been up with velocity, in any case. Perhaps we’re already on the restrict?
“I don’t assume individuals are going to have the ability to throw that arduous,” stated the Dodgers’ Bobby Miller, the league’s third-hardest throwing starter, about numbers like 110 and 125 mph. “You attain a sure level the place your arm will in all probability break.”
That’s three totally different solutions. Let’s take a better take a look at every.
The case for 125 mph
There’s an idea in pitching referred to as the “kinetic chain,” which describes the switch of power from the bottom, and the bigger muscle groups within the legs, up by way of the core and out to the top of the arm. If you happen to work in a purely theoretical house, that chain is principally a bunch of interactions that try to preserve the momentum created down low because it travels out to the arm. Buffi’s job at ReBoot is to assist make these transfers as environment friendly as potential. He created a physics mannequin to explain them for the needs of answering this query.
“To provide you with this toy instance,” he stated, “I considered the pitching movement as primarily a sequence of power transfers between two lots, just like a big ball colliding with a smaller ball. The legs are the bigger mass, they usually switch power to the torso, which transfers power to the higher arm, then to the forearm, then to the hand, then to the ball.”
A pitcher’s kinetic chain consists of six phases. (Graphic: Drew Jordan / The Athletic; photograph of Paul Skenes: Rick Osentoski / Getty Photos)
The relative sizes of every of these muscle teams govern the quantity of power that may be transferred in every interplay, simply as it’s within the traditional physics downside wherein an enormous ball hits a smaller ball. Within the mannequin that Buffi created, a 200-pound particular person placing 500 kilos of power into the bottom whereas being 85 % environment friendly in his transfers (an effectivity that’s elite, however throughout the vary of risk, in his estimation) would throw 125 mph.
“Though it’s a toy instance, while you put in affordable power switch numbers and floor response power values, you really get affordable pitching velocity estimates,” stated Buffi.
Considered one of at present’s hardest throwers, Oakland nearer Mason Miller, agrees that the dimensions of the participant and power into the bottom was a standard denominator while you take a look at the toughest throwers.
“Bodily, I’m 230 kilos, perhaps 240 at my greatest. Chapman is like 250 kilos,” stated Miller. He has thrown the fourth-fastest pitch this season at 103.7 mph, which trails solely a pair Chapman fastballs (one at 104) and one from Angels reliever Ben Joyce. “Pressure manufacturing into the bottom is necessary, we’ve seen that from power plate testing, that’s measure of energy manufacturing.”
However there are some flaws on this case. Floor power reactions north of those Buffi used have been recorded already by athletes at Driveline Baseball, they usually didn’t throw 125 mph. It’s approach out in entrance of what’s been noticed, as properly.
Mentioned Miller: “125 looks as if it’s approach out of our present existence.”
“Oh my goodness, 125, that’s loopy,” stated Twins’ nearer Jhoan Duran, who has topped out at 104.8 mph.
The case for 110 mph
The research of biomechanics, or the mechanical legal guidelines regarding the motion and construction of residing organisms, has unlocked velocity for lots of at present’s arduous throwers. The common four-seam main league fastball, measured by the identical know-how and methodology, has elevated in velocity each season since Main League Baseball began monitoring it, all the best way from 91.1 mph in 2007 to 94.1 now.
Sam Hellinger of Driveline Baseball shared an instance of how this understanding of the physique has helped gamers practice to get extra velocity. Justin Thorsteinson, a former Division I pitcher hoping to signal on with a corporation, got here to them throwing 87.7 mph in June and by August was throwing 91.5 mph, and his altering how his shoulder moved was key. Scapular retraction — in rudimentary phrases, how far again the throwing shoulder reaches earlier than coming ahead — has been linked to velocity by biomechanics research as a result of it creates an enormous separation between the hip and the shoulder. As that separation snaps again like a rubber band, torso velocity is accelerated, which is then transferred to the arm. That was an enormous focus for Thorsteinson.
“Based mostly on Justin’s bio report, we decided that his most obvious want mechanically was his arm motion, particularly his max shoulder exterior rotation and scapular retraction,” stated Hellinger.
After some work with weighted balls and particular drills, Thorsteinson improved his scores within the particular biomechanics that they had been concentrating on, as you may see additionally from this image, which exhibits how a lot he improved his shoulder retraction.
Earlier than (left) and after (proper) for Justin Thorsteinson, exhibiting extra shoulder retraction after the drills. (Driveline Baseball)
So might a 250-pound monster of an athlete refine every of his actions to the most effective of present information and bust previous the 106 mph ceiling in direction of the 110 mph that Boddy thought potential?
“If you happen to’re getting greater than Chapman, who throws 105, when you get any greater, you lose coordination,” stated Dodgers starter Walker Buehler. “He’s as massive and as robust as you could be, and his supply is all about velo.”
Boddy can also be unsure {that a} massive dude, plus the most effective piecemeal mechanics of our time, was the correct approach ahead.
“We’ll want to make use of new strategies, like simulation of human motion with hundreds of thousands of artificial knowledge factors utilizing machine studying and synthetic intelligence to discover the whole latent house of potential mechanical outputs and muscular contributions to the throwing movement,” stated Boddy. “That is one thing Driveline Baseball has been engaged on for years and is quickly changing into a precedence undertaking — primarily for sturdiness enhancements over efficiency features, although we anticipate breakthroughs in each realms over the approaching years from our Sports activities Science and Analysis groups.”
In different phrases, as a substitute of taking our legendary 250-pound flamethrower after which giving him what trendy analysis thinks is the most effective mechanics within the legs, the torso, the shoulder, and the arms, Boddy is hoping that AI might assist us consider new methods these physique elements might transfer in live performance with one another, as a way to establish even higher potential mechanics.
May AI do that? Given the speedy rise of that know-how, it appears believable that we might see features from re-evaluating present processes, even ones that contain the motion of our our bodies.
The case for 106 mph
Let’s flip over to a special sport for a second. Over within the 100-meter sprint, we’ve got information going again to the Nineteen Seventies. If we observe the most effective occasions by yr, it appears to be like like we’re hitting a little bit of an asymptote — as a substitute of enormous features like we noticed within the Eighties and ’90s, we’re preventing over smaller increments of change.
If you happen to altitude-adjust these numbers — operating greater up can shave some milliseconds, as we noticed with a few record-breaking runs earlier this century — we’re zeroing in round 9.7 to 9.8 seconds as maybe the quickest a runner can handle in a impartial setting. That is seen by some to indicate that trendy coaching, vitamin, and gear have pushed the physique so far as it may possibly go. There are comparable graphs in different operating sports activities that recommend the identical.
A couple of examples from different sports activities:
100m dash, marathon & 1 mile world file progressions pic.twitter.com/6z5nhPPbdP
— Ben Brewster (@TreadAthletics) May 28, 2024
The utmost pitch velocity appears to be following an identical trajectory in baseball. Chapman threw 105.8 mph in 2010 and since then, the common finest fastball has been 104, with a peak of 105.7 (Chapman once more in 2016) and a nadir of 102.2 (in 2020, in fact). The perfect non-Chapman fastball is round 104 mph in any given season.
There are some variations between pitching and operating, although. Right here’s the place Glenn Fleisig, the director of biomechanics analysis on the American Sports activities Medication Institute, is available in.
“Fifteen years in the past I used to be quoted as saying that I didn’t assume high velocity or the ceiling going up, however I foresee it getting fairly crowded on the ceiling,” stated Fleisig. “It wasn’t a fortunate guess that I pulled out of my butt.”
“When others discuss concerning the ceiling, they discuss physics and statistics. Perhaps by the legal guidelines of physics, perhaps individuals might throw quicker. Perhaps the very best quantity might hold going up prefer it (did) for runners, as a result of the coaching can enhance, the mechanics and biomechanics can enhance, the vitamin and dietary supplements can enhance,” he continued.
“The distinction right here is that we’re pushing this little ulnar collateral ligament to its restrict. We’re strengthening our muscle groups and enhancing our mechanics and vitamin, however based mostly on how the physique is constructed, the ligaments and tendons don’t enhance proportionally to the opposite elements of the physique and the method.”
When that ligament tears, the pitcher wants Tommy John surgical procedure to get again on the mound, and people surgical procedures are extra widespread than ever. How a lot stress that ligament can deal with is likely to be up for debate.
“Nobody actually is aware of how a lot stress a UCL can actually take, due to an issue I name cadavers and robots,” stated Randy Sullivan of the Florida Baseball ARMory on a latest podcast. “We decided how a lot stress a UCL can take by way of a cadaver setting the place we discovered that it tears at 35 newton-meters of torque, after which we used movement seize to find out that it may possibly tolerate on a single pitch, it has to simply accept 70-75 nM of stress. We bought the underside quantity from an individual who wasn’t alive; residing tissue wouldn’t react the identical approach. And we bought the highest quantity from a mannequin, a legendary robotic.”
Fleisig, who authored the research that checked out how a lot stress the UCL might deal with in cadavers, noticed that second quantity in a barely totally different mild.
Throwing high-velocity pitches places an excessive amount of stress on a pitcher’s UCL. (Drew Jordan / The Athletic)
“That 70-75 nM dynamic stress from biomechanics evaluation is on the whole elbow, and the UCL does a couple of third of that resistance, your bones and tendons assist with that resistance,” he factors out. Taking a 3rd of 75 nM leaves the present stress on the elbow throughout the 35 nM most we see in cadavers.
The game is likely to be telling us one thing with the spike in arm accidents. All these torn ligaments, that are more and more tied to top-end velocity by the most effective accessible analysis, appear to recommend that we’re operating up on the bodily limits of that little tendon. Perhaps 106 is all that we are able to do.
“I’ve considered it earlier than,” stated Joyce, the Los Angeles Angels pitcher who has thrown the toughest this yr and likewise had a fastball tracked at 105.5 mph in school. “I might assume somebody will hit 106.0, however I don’t know if there may be far more than that.”
The place can we go from right here?
The work to enhance the ceiling will go on, it doesn’t matter what accidents say, due to the reward system in place for pitchers who can throw arduous. The best draft picks, the most important free-agent contracts — these go to the quickest fastballs, and that’s not prone to change within the quick time period.
Joyce has an equivalent twin who tops out at 98 mph, with comparable mechanics and equivalent genes. So what separated Ben from his brother Zach?
“I didn’t do something particular,” stated the harder-throwing Joyce. “I simply all the time wished to throw arduous, so I attempted to throw tougher each day, saved throwing tougher and tougher, and it will definitely labored out.”
Joyce identified that he hadn’t actually optimized his mechanics or achieved something particular in that regard. He’s simply throwing 103 and 104 on pure willpower. He’s additionally just a little smaller than Miller and Chapman. Perhaps the subsequent child is 50 kilos heavier, has that very same iron will, finally ends up as a reliever the place he can max out on fewer pitches, and likewise optimizes his biomechanics. That state of affairs appears prone to push the top-end velocity some … however how a lot greater if that little ligament is taking all it may possibly deal with already?
If that mixture of inputs solely pushes most velocity ahead a tick or two, it’d behoove younger pitchers to think about different targets as they arrive up the ranks. In different phrases, if we get to some extent the place everybody throws tougher than 94 mph within the massive leagues, however no one actually throws tougher than 106, perhaps the easiest way to stay out sooner or later shall be to exhibit a pitch combine with various velocities and actions, with good command. Perhaps the success of softer-throwing pitchers such because the Royals’ Seth Lugo, who throws eight totally different pitches from two totally different arm slots, and the Phillies’ Ranger Suárez, who retains the ball on the bottom with nice command, can present new position fashions for younger pitchers.
Because the accidents mount within the seek for velocity, chasing a most quantity which may not even be potential might not be the most effective plan for a younger arm thinking about making essentially the most out of his expertise.
— The Athletic’s Sam Blum contributed to this story.
(High picture: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Picture of Paul Skenes: Justin Ok. Aller / Getty Photos)