PM Modi was among the many first to congratulate the interim chief after Sheikh Hasina fled (file).
New Delhi:
The ouster of Bangladesh’s autocratic premier sparked celebrations in Dhaka this week however alarm in India, which backed Sheikh Hasina to counter rival China and quash Islamist alternate options, analysts say.
It has created a diplomatic dilemma for the regional powerhouse.
Hasina, 76, stop as prime minister within the face of a student-led rebellion on Monday and fled by helicopter to longtime ally New Delhi.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the many first to supply his “finest needs” after Bangladesh’s newly sworn-in interim chief Muhammad Yunus took energy Thursday, saying New Delhi was “dedicated” to working with Dhaka.
However China was additionally swift to welcome Dhaka’s new authorities, saying it “attaches significance to the event” of relations.
With Hasina’s rivals in management in Dhaka, India’s assist for the outdated authorities has come again to chew.
“From the standpoint of Bangladeshis, India has been on the fallacious facet for a few years now,” mentioned Worldwide Disaster Group analyst Thomas Kean.
“The Indian authorities completely didn’t need to see a change in Dhaka, and had made that very clear for years that they did not see any various to Hasina and the Awami League.”
‘Detrimental’
Bangladesh is sort of fully encircled by India, with a deeply intertwined historical past lengthy earlier than they have been partitioned out of the Indian subcontinent in 1947.
However whereas India’s 1.4 billion inhabitants and dominating financial system overshadows Bangladesh — with a inhabitants of 170 million — Hasina additionally courted China.
India and China, the world’s two most populous nations, are intense rivals competing for strategic affect throughout South Asia, together with in Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
Hasina pursued a fragile balancing act, benefiting from assist from New Delhi, whereas sustaining robust relations with Beijing.
New Delhi noticed a standard menace in teams Hasina seen as rivals and crushed with brutal drive, together with the important thing Bangladesh Nationwide Get together (BNP).
“India… apprehensive that any various to Hasina and the Awami League may very well be detrimental to Indian pursuits,” mentioned Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute on the Washington-based Wilson Middle.
“In New Delhi’s view, the BNP and its allies are harmful Islamist forces that might imperil Indian pursuits.”
Yunus has mentioned he desires elections in Bangladesh “inside just a few months”.
The BNP may very well be poised for a comeback, holding a mass rally in Dhaka this week.
Within the quick aftermath of Hasina’s fall, some companies and houses owned by Hindus have been attacked, a gaggle seen by some in Muslim-majority Bangladesh as having been her supporters.
A whole lot of Bangladeshi Hindus this week arrived on India’s border, asking to cross.
Hindu nationalist chief Modi on Thursday mentioned he hoped “for an early return to normalcy, making certain the security and safety of Hindus and all different minority communities.”
‘She is going to return’
The actual fact Hasina is sheltering in India could show to be a stumbling block to relations between New Delhi and Dhaka.
Indian Overseas Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar informed parliament Hasina had flown to India “at very quick discover”, and in response to Indian media, supposed to remain solely briefly in transit.
However her reported bid to journey onwards to Britain was scuppered after London known as for a “full and impartial UN-led investigation” into the lethal crackdown on protests within the final weeks of her rule.
The US prior to now had praised Hasina’s financial observe document and noticed her as a associate on priorities reminiscent of countering Islamist extremism, however Washington extra lately imposed visa sanctions over considerations about democracy.
It isn’t clear how lengthy she’s going to now keep in India, or the place else she may go.
Since arriving at a army airbase close to New Delhi, she has been hosted in a secret protected home and never spoken publically.
Her daughter Saima Wazed mentioned she was “heartbroken” she couldn’t see her mom.
“As a lot as I’d like to see Ma, I do not need to compromise her whereabouts in any approach”, Wazed, the World Well being Group’s Southeast Asia chief, mentioned in a since-deleted submit on social media platform X.
Her son Sajeeb Wazed Pleasure informed the Occasions of India newspaper his mom nonetheless hoped to contest for political workplace.
“She is going to return to Bangladesh the second the interim authorities decides to carry an election,” he mentioned.
‘Earned the enmity’
Indian media warn of the “formidable diplomatic problem” the nation now faces.
“New Delhi should actively work to restrict the harm, and make sure the excessive stakes within the relationship are protected,” the Indian Categorical newspaper warned. “This might contain some near-term setbacks.”
However Bangladesh’s new chief Yunus has provided an olive department.
“Though some nations, reminiscent of India, backed the ousted prime minister and earned the enmity of the Bangladeshi folks because of this, there will probably be many alternatives to heal these sorts of rifts,” Yunus wrote in The Economist, shortly earlier than returning to Bangladesh.
Disaster Group’s Kean in the meantime mentioned he believes the nations will put the previous apart for pragmatic relations.
“India is Bangladesh’s most essential worldwide associate, and there isn’t any cause that they cannot discover a approach to transfer ahead from this,” mentioned Kean.
“Financial forces will compel them to work collectively.”
(Aside from the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV workers and is revealed from a syndicated feed.)