New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP) would lose 17 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats it holds in Karnataka if the overall elections have been to be held tomorrow and folks voted the identical method as within the 2023 meeting polls, extrapolated knowledge reveals.
ThePrint calculated the variety of votes numerous events might get within the Lok Sabha polls by including up the votes their candidates acquired in all of the meeting constituencies falling underneath every Lok Sabha seat in Karnataka.
Within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had received 25 out of 28 seats in Karnataka, whereas the Congress, the JD(S) and an Impartial received the remaining three.
However on this situation, the BJP can be lowered to eight MPs, the Congress’s tally would go as much as 18 and that of the Janata Dal (Secular) to 2.
Extrapolated knowledge reveals that the BJP would lose seats at the moment held by a number of outstanding leaders, together with Union ministers Bhagwanth Khuba (Bidar) and A. Narayanaswamy (Chitradurga), in addition to Mysore MP Pratap Simha.
It should, nonetheless, be famous that folks’s voting preferences in meeting and Lok Sabha polls are seldom the identical in Karnataka. Information from the Election Fee has proven that in every Lok Sabha election from 2009 onwards, the BJP has improved its vote share from the previous Karnataka meeting polls.
Political analyst Chambi Puranik, a former political science professor on the College of Mysore, stated that agendas of nationwide elections don’t combine with state elections in Karnataka.
“Karnataka all the time votes in a different way for the state and the Lok Sabha elections. In Lok Sabha elections, voters of Karnataka will see (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi, his worldwide picture, and different developmental issues from the Centre. Even in rural elements, Modi is a crucial issue. They don’t like confrontational federalism, they like cooperative federalism,” Puranik informed ThePrint.
However based on Karnataka-based political analyst Narendar Pani, voting patterns will change so much subsequent yr. “It would rely so much on if the Congress can current an alternate (central) management. If there’s a credible face on the opposite (Opposition) aspect, so much may change.”
Nonetheless, he added, “With out a credible face, meeting elections won’t translate into something. The Parliament vote is vote for the nationwide social gathering, candidates don’t matter as a lot, versus the meeting elections.”
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BJP losses
Firebrand Hindutva MP Pratap Simha would lose his seat of Mysore to the Congress, the extrapolated knowledge reveals. His victory margin of greater than 1.3 lakh votes in 2019 would flip right into a shedding margin of over 2.3 lakh votes. Whereas Simha secured a complete of 6.8 lakh votes final time, the BJP can be lowered to 4.2 lakh this time.
Equally, A. Narayanaswamy had received his Lok Sabha seat of Chitradurga by a margin of 80,000 votes in 2019. However this time, the BJP would lose to a Congress candidate by almost 3 lakh votes, securing 4.2 lakh votes towards the latter’s 7.2 lakh votes.
The Congress would additionally wrest the Bagalkot seat, which the BJP’s P.C. Gaddigoudar has held since 2004 and received by over 1.6 lakh votes in 2019. The Congress would safe a complete of 6.1 lakh votes whereas the BJP can be lowered to five.5 lakh.
In 2019, the BJP’s S. Muniswamy — securing 7 lakh votes — unseated the Congress from Kolar, which it had held for 3 many years since 1989. On this situation, the BJP would lose the seat by a margin of over 3.5 lakh votes, being lowered to 1.9 lakh votes. The Congress would get 5.8 lakh votes, and the JD(S) 4.7 lakh votes.
A Vajpayee-era Union minister, V. Srinivas Prasad (Chamarajanagar) of the BJP, had received his seat by a mere 1,800 votes in 2019. This time, the social gathering can be up for a serious loss of over 3 lakh votes. In keeping with the extrapolated knowledge, the Congress would obtain 7,49,177 votes and the BJP would get 4,37,138 votes.
The BJP would add no new seats to its kitty, managing to retain simply eight. These, the information reveals, embrace these at the moment held by Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pralhad Joshi (Dharwad), Union MoS Shobha Karandlaje (Udupi Chikmagalur), Bangalore South MP Tejasvi Surya, state BJP chief Nalinkumar Kateel (Dakshina Kannada), former Union ministers D.V. Sadananda Gowda (Bangalore North) and Anantkumar Hegde (Uttara Kannada).
The opposite two seats the social gathering would retain can be Shimoga and Belgaum, at the moment held by former chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa’s son B.Y. Raghavendra and Mangal Suresh Angadi respectively.
Positive factors for others
The Congress would retain the only real seat it at the moment holds within the state, Bangalore Rural, which is held by Deputy CM D.Ok. Shivakumar’s brother, D.Ok. Suresh.
The social gathering would additionally win Gulbarga — the previous seat of its president, Mallikarjun Kharge — by an enormous margin. Kharge had misplaced the seat in 2019 by over 95,000 votes. Nonetheless, within the meeting elections this month, the Congress bagged a complete of 1.8 lakh votes greater than the BJP within the eight segments that make up the Gulbarga constituency.
The JD(S) would maintain on to the Deve Gowda household bastion of Hassan, at the moment represented by the previous PM’s grandson, Prajwal Revanna.
If the meeting developments have been to carry within the Lok Sabha elections, H.D. Deve Gowda would lose the Tumkur seat but once more if he have been to contest.
(Edited by Smriti Sinha)
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